Who Here is Not Entirely Sold on Dak Prescott?

[Scot]

Flacco is a lot better than Dilfer. Flacco was ON FIRE during the 2012 playoffs. The road win at Denver was nothing short of amazing.

What I remember about those two SB winning teams is that they both had dominant defenses that got them to, and won them the Super Bowls

 

[Omegasupreme]

the NFL overall has a coaching problem, not a QB problem. lots of shitty coaches keep getting recycled.

dak is not a bad qb. i think dak is a qb that you can win with.

i do think that, by having dak and using him in the best way, you should always be in the market for a backup QB (higher risk of injury than pocket qb)

so you're going to have to pay dak market value and i dont think jerry has ever had a problem paying sticker price.

I agree. There are generally two ways to look at value here with QBs. One is the pure talent/upside and verified potential. The second is (and much more powerful) evidence that the QB responds to coaching, converts during adversity and manages bad situations well. Dak is the second one. He is barely tall enough, he’s not fast nor does he have a strong or precision arm (his hands are big and cumbersome so he throws like he is throwing a paper airplane). But the majority of 2016 and then the Jags last year pointed to evidence - real empirical proof that Dak is better than many QBs who have more potential and physical traits than he has. In 2016, the coaching staff were forced to coach him. They were gambling with him and designed high percentage plays that were built off of a blur of misdirection run plays. (If you go back and watch those early games, the TV production was fooled several times and the camera followed the wrong player). The Dallas offense was built around making sure down and distance was manageable and short yardage was convertible. The reason why there was actual coaching pressure was a combination of: 1. being without a QB like Romo or Helen who were well-versed in the (nonsensical and puerile) pass “system” that Garrett has shackled the team to. And 2. the year before with Weeden and Cassel, Jerry said he expected Garrett to “coach up” those QBs (who were only on the team bc they had Norv Turner fingerprints on them) and Jerry stated he was disappointed that the coaching never happened. So Dak and Dallas landed in a perfect storm of Garrett on the brink of being exposed (requiring desperate high percentage scheming) and being the only option available at QB.
Now despite having a TD/int ratio in his rookie year of 23/4 and the team going 13-3, his idiot HC said that Dak needed to “grow” as a QB. This meant (as many of us predicted and now saw) that the Garrett “pass” system would dismantle and replace the high percentage pass game and misdirection run plays. Both are staples of the WCO which has always been a threat to Garrett. So the run plays were reduced down to about three simple plays that were (nonsensically) disconnected from the pass plays (the Coryell offense is supposed to put more thought into its run design so that play action sets up simple downfield throws). If Zeke or McFadden would run for 5-7 yards they were sometimes taken out of the game for 5 WRs or get put on the line for a pass - which is stupid. Play action sets up the downfield.

Other than 2016 (which by the way toward the end, the reduction of high percentage WCO passes to Beasley was Garrett bringing his offense back), Dak has largely had to make due with no help from his coaches or his Scheme. Last year was a nightmare bc with Helen Moore purportedly QBs coaching him (and Garrett abhorring him running the ball) Dak was sacked 58 times. That’s about as much as combining his rookie year and 2017 - both where he was more vulnerable. Dak held the ball too long and took hit after hit while waiting like Aikman did. I’ll say it again. Like Aikman did.

Now what game last season did Dallas score 40 points against a notoriously strong defense? Only one game. And what did Dak do in that game that completely confused the Jags? He ran. In the press conference after, the media asked Garrett several times about Dak running the ball and how/why successful. He dodged the questions. He wouldn’t admit it. The bottom line is Dak needs orchestrated pass plays and needs a run game - even Dak running the ball himself makes a threat to the defense like RB play action does.
But if Dak is forced to stand and get hit and has a Pop Warner running game playbook for Zeke, and has unchanging pass plays (Eberflus called them “familiar route combinations) that the defense knows better than the offense then Dak is going to look bad and Dak is going to look inept.

Most QBs would fall apart in such situations - especially in their first 3 years. Dak doesn’t give up.

That’s why you pay him - because of the evidence that already exists and not the classic superskill that you want a QB to eventually touch the Sky with.

 

[Macksfield]

This article explains the juiced football era or the anti-defense rule era. It demonstrates how today's stats don't mean as much. No Dak could not get the same results had he been born years earlier. More evidence his throwing inaccuracies (quack) are real.
The Most Important Job in Sports Is Easier Than Ever Before
https://www.theringer.com/platform/...WMAV6BAgEEAE&usg=AOvVaw0QIgPidPomNG5eKm_SG8yS

 

[Dodger12]

Bad link Mack.....

 

[thebowmanbody]

I agree. There are generally two ways to look at value here with QBs. One is the pure talent/upside and verified potential. The second is (and much more powerful) evidence that the QB responds to coaching, converts during adversity and manages bad situations well. Dak is the second one. He is barely tall enough, he’s not fast nor does he have a strong or precision arm (his hands are big and cumbersome so he throws like he is throwing a paper airplane). But the majority of 2016 and then the Jags last year pointed to evidence - real empirical proof that Dak is better than many QBs who have more potential and physical traits than he has. In 2016, the coaching staff were forced to coach him. They were gambling with him and designed high percentage plays that were built off of a blur of misdirection run plays. (If you go back and watch those early games, the TV production was fooled several times and the camera followed the wrong player). The Dallas offense was built around making sure down and distance was manageable and short yardage was convertible. The reason why there was actual coaching pressure was a combination of: 1. being without a QB like Romo or Helen who were well-versed in the (nonsensical and puerile) pass “system” that Garrett has shackled the team to. And 2. the year before with Weeden and Cassel, Jerry said he expected Garrett to “coach up” those QBs (who were only on the team bc they had Norv Turner fingerprints on them) and Jerry stated he was disappointed that the coaching never happened. So Dak and Dallas landed in a perfect storm of Garrett on the brink of being exposed (requiring desperate high percentage scheming) and being the only option available at QB.
Now despite having a TD/int ratio in his rookie year of 23/4 and the team going 13-3, his idiot HC said that Dak needed to “grow” as a QB. This meant (as many of us predicted and now saw) that the Garrett “pass” system would dismantle and replace the high percentage pass game and misdirection run plays. Both are staples of the WCO which has always been a threat to Garrett. So the run plays were reduced down to about three simple plays that were (nonsensically) disconnected from the pass plays (the Coryell offense is supposed to put more thought into its run design so that play action sets up simple downfield throws). If Zeke or McFadden would run for 5-7 yards they were sometimes taken out of the game for 5 WRs or get put on the line for a pass - which is stupid. Play action sets up the downfield.

Other than 2016 (which by the way toward the end, the reduction of high percentage WCO passes to Beasley was Garrett bringing his offense back), Dak has largely had to make due with no help from his coaches or his Scheme. Last year was a nightmare bc with Helen Moore purportedly QBs coaching him (and Garrett abhorring him running the ball) Dak was sacked 58 times. That’s about as much as combining his rookie year and 2017 - both where he was more vulnerable. Dak held the ball too long and took hit after hit while waiting like Aikman did. I’ll say it again. Like Aikman did.

Now what game last season did Dallas score 40 points against a notoriously strong defense? Only one game. And what did Dak do in that game that completely confused the Jags? He ran. In the press conference after, the media asked Garrett several times about Dak running the ball and how/why successful. He dodged the questions. He wouldn’t admit it. The bottom line is Dak needs orchestrated pass plays and needs a run game - even Dak running the ball himself makes a threat to the defense like RB play action does.
But if Dak is forced to stand and get hit and has a Pop Warner running game playbook for Zeke, and has unchanging pass plays (Eberflus called them “familiar route combinations) that the defense knows better than the offense then Dak is going to look bad and Dak is going to look inept.

Most QBs would fall apart in such situations - especially in their first 3 years. Dak doesn’t give up.

That’s why you pay him - because of the evidence that already exists and not the classic superskill that you want a QB to eventually touch the Sky with.

You're quite the Dak cheerleader/apologist.

 

[Omegasupreme]

You're quite the Dak cheerleader/apologist.

Not really. There’s a lot about him that I’m not impressed with as a QB. I’m just looking at it practically. The odds are better to invest in what you have and what you know can handle bad variables than the gamble of something better that has no track record of resiliency.

 

[yimyammer]

Dont get me wrong, I love Dak in many ways but I am concerned about his passing accuracy, ability to read defenses, anticipate throws, etc and I honestly dont know what the hell I'm looking at so it makes me wonder if my naive eyes can see this, what dont I see? I guess the answer to that could be good or bad. He strikes me as good enough to win provided he has a good team around him but not good enough to carry the team by himself, so some of his salary has to go to his team mates so they all can win, both on the field and financially for years to come.

What I'd like Dallas to do is leverage the fact Dak is only getting paid about $1.4 Million (IIRC) in 2019 and do a 3 year contract now that allows Dak to make say $20 million in 2019 (an 18.6 million dollar increase in his 2019 Salary), $23 million in 2020 & $25 million in 2021 and then I'd guarantee 100% of the contract and emphasize he'll more than make up any perceived underpayment by getting more money outside of football in Dallas than he would with any other team.

This would cost the team an average of $22.7 million per year in real and cap dollars and give them a solid 3 year look before they commit to a 3rd contract. In turn, this would give Dak a nice chunk of cash guaranteed that should set him up for life.

If Dak kicks ass, he'll get a bank breaking 3rd contract, if he doesnt, then the Cowboys will have slightly overpaid but at least they can walk away completely in 3 years.

If Dak refuses and Dallas holds tight and lets him play out 2019, his value could go up or down. Lets say it takes a slight bump and he gets a deal for $35 million per season in 2020 & 2021 but only 50 mill is guaranteed, he'd end up with $51.4 million guaranteed after playing 2019 at 1.4 million at the risk of a catastrophic injury and over the same three years would make 71.4 million whereas if he took the deal I propose, he'd make $68 million but all of it guaranteed plus a huge payday on his 3rd deal coming if he outplayed his contract or he would have gotten away with robbing the bank should he regress, fall off a cliff or have a career ending injury.

obviously these numbers aren't absolute but it does illustrate how there is an opportunity to leverage the fact Dak is getting underpaid for 2019 and I think we would all agree he's being underpaid at 1.4 million

If I have the facts correct, then forget what I said and just leave 2019 as is and franchise him the next 2 seasons and it will cost approximately $59,790,000 total if the % increase in the franchise tag for QBs stays close to the % increase form 2018 to 2019.

This gives the cowboys leverage imo since there's no pressure to pay him $30 million now when they can average paying him less than $20 million per year by leaving 2019 as is and franchising him back to back in years 2020 & 2021. This gives them a 3 year look with maximum flexibility and a reasonable average cost of $20 mill/year

The only downside I see is they'll be forced to part ways or pay him big in 2022 if he turns out to be a stud because the franchise tag $$ will be so bloated, it will no longer be an option

 

[thebowmanbody]

If I have the facts correct, then forget what I said and just leave 2019 as is and franchise him the next 2 seasons and it will cost approximately $59,790,000 total if the % increase in the franchise tag for QBs stays close to the % increase form 2018 to 2019.

This gives the cowboys leverage imo since there's no pressure to pay him $30 million now when they can average paying him less than $20 million per year by leaving 2019 as is and franchising him back to back in years 2020 & 2021. This gives them a 3 year look with maximum flexibility and a reasonable average cost of $20 mill/year

The only downside I see is they'll be forced to part ways or pay him big in 2022 if he turns out to be a stud because the franchise tag $$ will be so bloated, it will no longer be an option

View attachment 4680

I simply can't see Dak getting a whole lot better at this point. The question is, can the Cowboys do better than Dak. Since JJ's in love with the guy, unfortunately it's a moot point. Sigh.

 

[yimyammer]

The 2018 franchise tag values are set

Quarterback – $23.189 million

 

[MrB]

I simply can't see Dak getting a whole lot better at this point. The question is, can the Cowboys do better than Dak. Since JJ's in love with the guy, unfortunately it's a moot point. Sigh.

To each his own but I don’t see how a guy can max out after just 3 years especially when he has shown improvement his first 3 years. Think of Romo as an example. Throughout his prime years he had a bad habit of throwing the ill advised interception. Late in his career he got a handle on that and cut back dramatically on his int’s. If a guy is willing to learn and willing to put in the work I think they can improve. Now don’t get me wrong, he’ll never be Rodgers, Brady, or Brees. It he can improve.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Dodger12]

The only downside I see is they'll be forced to part ways or pay him big in 2022 if he turns out to be a stud because the franchise tag $$ will be so bloated, it will no longer be an option

If he turns out to be a stud, then pay him. But we're talking about paying him top 5 money when he's a mid-level QB leading the 22nd ranked offense and the 29th raked offense in the red zone, even on first and goal (I believe). When things get stacked in the red zone, that's where we get hurt by his accuracy, or lack thereof. He just doesn't read defenses and pull the trigger. He lacks confidence in his arm.

In any event, we're going to go into next season and every DC in the NFL will game plan Dallas the same way.....stop Zeke and make Dak beat you with his arm. He's good enough to keep you in the hunt if the D plays well and Zeke is the best RB in the game, but Dak needs the best OL while handing off to the best RB and passing the rock to (one of) the best receivers.

 

[Macksfield]

Bad link Mack.....

Hmmm sorry about that, it works when I click on it.

 

[Macksfield]

Bad link Mack.....

How about this one

The Most Important Job in Sports Is Easier Than Ever Before

Why are so many previously unspectacular quarterbacks putting up passing numbers that make Dan Marino look like a chump? Better schemes, better athletes, and beneficial rule changes—it’s all combined to lower the degree of difficulty for football’s most valuable position.

www.theringer.com

 

[Macksfield]

If he turns out to be a stud, then pay him. But we're talking about paying him top 5 money when he's a mid-level QB leading the 22nd ranked offense and the 29th raked offense in the red zone, even on first and goal (I believe). When things get stacked in the red zone, that's where we get hurt by his accuracy, or lack thereof. He just doesn't read defenses and pull the trigger. He lacks confidence in his arm.

In any event, we're going to go into next season and every DC in the NFL will game plan Dallas the same way.....stop Zeke and make Dak beat you with his arm. He's good enough to keep you in the hunt if the D plays well and Zeke is the best RB in the game, but Dak needs the best OL while handing off to the best RB and passing the rock to (one of) the best receivers.

I agree, why overpay. Does Jerry really believe the the more money he throws at a player the better he plays.

 

[yimyammer]

If he turns out to be a stud, then pay him.

that the whole point of my posts

 

[SixisBetter]

Here's something else that might come into play re: paying Dak.
There's going to be a new CBA after the 2020 season ends. Lots of optimism that a new agreement will be in place by then, but I've heard this joke before. IIRC the TV contracts are up after 2021. Lots of money on the line in both cases.
Jerry might go ahead and give Dak a shitload now(or soon anyway) rather than paying a bigger shitload later.

 

[Ragnar]

This article explains the juiced football era or the anti-defense rule era. It demonstrates how today's stats don't mean as much. No Dak could not get the same results had he been born years earlier. More evidence his throwing inaccuracies (quack) are real.
The Most Important Job in Sports Is Easier Than Ever Before
https://www.theringer.com/platform/...WMAV6BAgEEAE&usg=AOvVaw0QIgPidPomNG5eKm_SG8yS

Some good points in that article. Although I think they all play a role, I don't think that is the primary reason things are made easier for the QBs. The salary cap has watered down teams, and defenses have taken the biggest hit. We rarely see monster defenses anymore. Take 2013 for example. Peyton broke all kinds of records passing against averages defenses all year. In comes Seattle, 8 points. The 49ers would have stomped them too.

 

[Macksfield]

Some good points in that article. Although I think they all play a role, I don't think that is the primary reason things are made easier for the QBs. The salary cap has watered down teams, and defenses have taken the biggest hit. We rarely see monster defenses anymore. Take 2013 for example. Peyton broke all kinds of records passing against averages defenses all year. In comes Seattle, 8 points. The 49ers would have stomped them too.

Good point. I agree there is more than one reason the game has changed. I just don't think today's stats have the same meaning as in the past. The QB rating can be an indicator in certain situations, but maybe adjust it to the way the game has changed.

 

[icup]

 

[Macksfield]

And so it goes...my stat is bigger than your stat. My stat looks better than yours. My stat is the mackdaddy of all stats. Yet, you keep losing with those stats. Maybe if Dak we're coached by the genious of Bellichick he could get the only stat that matters - the Superbowl. Maybe.