http://blackandgoldreview.com/2013/06/14/martez-wilson-new-orleans-saints-linebacker/
A Perfect Replacement
As we know, Victor Butler was largely unproven but with a huge upside. He fits the Anthony Spencer mold better than, say, Junior Galette or Will Smith. But Martez Wilson should be able to step in without much drop off, if their shockingly similar 2012 numbers are to be believed.3 In 2012, Victor Butler played 300 snaps. Martez Wilson played 206. Of those, Butler played slightly fewer pass rush snaps, just 132 to Wilson’s 206. (The difference here comes in with Butler playing more against the run, which is unsurprising considering he’s very strong against the run.) Both dropped into coverage about the same number of times, Butler with 36 coverage snaps to Wilson’s 32.
Pro Football Focus, which grades every single NFL player on every single play, gave Butler and Wilson almost identical pass rush grades last year. Both graded out positively overall for the 2012 season. On coverage, though, Butler was significantly weaker, grading out negatively (-3.2), to Wilson’s slightly-above-average season grade (.5).
Assuming Wilson maintains that level, that grade would make him a top-10 pass rusher.Other than Butler’s comparative weakness in coverage, the big difference is Wilson’s weakness in run defense. He graded negatively last year, while Butler received a stellar season-long grade of 6.1. How much is scheme and coaching versus raw talent, we can’t know yet.
Let’s just talk about pass rush for a minute, though. Sacks are cool, and it’s worth noting that Butler and Wilson both had three sacks last year even though Wilson rushed the passer more often. But Pro Football Focus’s pass rush productivity stat is an even better metric. This measures the overall effectiveness of a pass rusher, beyond just sacks, to include hits and hurries as well. In this stat, both Butler and Wilson graded roughly the same, at 9.4 and 9.7 respectively. If Wilson were to maintain that level this year, that grade would be good enough to make him a top-10 pass rusher.