I say take a shot. Nobody knows for sure.
I thought Trevor Lawrence was going to rewrite the record books (he looked more than just good against us). Many of the experts thought he was a can't miss player. Lawrence has been okay, not great. I thought by now he'd be a top 5.
Go back and read about Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. There were real question marks. Same with Lamar.
Meanwhile, Jamarcus Russell was considered a consensus first-round pick!
It is hard to predict at any position because some players get taller, some get bigger, some get injured, some peak early, some peak later. Some just have a knack, and some don't.
If one of the top guys is there, I say take him. We might not be in a position for a QB to fall to us the following year.