Draft analysis: Fumble rates for RB prospects – NFL Draft Scout
Draft analysis: Fumble rates for RB prospects
February 11, 2018
— By Dane Brugler, NFLDraftScout.com —
Vision. Balance. Burst. These are the main traits scouts want to see from running backs. Ball security is also a crucial characteristic that is key to the NFL transition.
The average fumble rate for the top 10 rushers in the NFL last season was one for every 124.5 offensive touches.
Kansas City Chiefs rookie running back Kareem Hunt had elite ball security at Toledo (fumble rate of 856.0), and that skill translated as a first-year NFL player, as he fumbled only once in 325 offensive touches in 2017.
Cincinnati Bengals rookie Joe Mixon had fumbling issues in college, putting the ball on the ground once every 73.0 offensive touches at Oklahoma. And that stayed true in his first year as a pro, posting a 69.3 rumble rate last season.
Below are the career offensive fumble rates for the top running back prospects in the 2018 NFL Draft class, broken down into five categories:
ELITE (150 or better)
359.0 — Darrel Williams, LSU
238.7 — Demario Richard, Arizona State
207.7 — Ronald Jones, USC
193.3 — Saquon Barkley, Penn State
191.3 — Kerryon Johnson, Auburn
181.7 — Kyle Hicks, TCU
180.6 — Justin Jackson, Northwestern
174.0 — Josh Adams, Notre Dame
155.5 — Jordan Wilkins, Ole Miss
ABOVE AVERAGE (125-149)
142.1 — Chase Edmonds, Fordham
135.0 — Lavon Coleman, Washington
124.9 — Ralph Webb, Vanderbilt
123.3 — John Kelly, Tennessee
AVERAGE (100-124)
114.0 — Royce Freeman, Oregon
110.0 — Phillip Lindsay, Colorado
105.8 — Rashaad Penny, San Diego State
100.6 — Derrius Guice, LSU
BELOW AVERAGE (76-99)
98.6 — Nick Chubb, Georgia
96.0 — Bo Scarbrough, Alabama
90.0 — Mark Walton, Miami (Fla.)
88.2 — Ryan Nall, Oregon State
87.3 — Ito Smith, Southern Miss
86.8 — Nyheim Hines, NC State
76.3 — Jordan Chunn, Troy
RED FLAG (75 or worse)
74.2 — Roc Thomas, Jacksonville State
67.4 — Akrum Wadley, Iowa
66.9 — Jarvion Franklin, Western Michigan
66.5 — Kalen Ballage, Arizona State
62.5 — Justin Crawford, West Virginia
58.2 — Kamryn Pettway, Auburn
55.6 — Keith Ford, Texas A&M
54.6 — Sony Michel, Georgia
39.5 — Jeffery Wilson, North Texas