Uh... Kellen Moore to Dallas?

[yimyammer]

Are you assuming we follow our boards to a tee? I think it's pretty clear we don't based on passing on Floyd in 2013. When we follow our boards, then you hear about it. But when we don't, you hear excuses like "doesn't fit the system" or "has character issues."

No thats impossible since its not an exact science plus neither I nor anyone here knows what they do behind close doors and with jerri in the room, there's always a chance something stupid could happen.

If I owned the team and invested all that money in creating a board, I'd beat the hell out of it before the draft and then follow it as closely as I could on draft day. When it was time for me to pick, if I had three players all ranked equally or within a spot or two, I'd go for the position of need.

What I wouldn't do is pick a player of need two rounds higher than I had him ranked.

I'd love to be a fly on the wall in Dallas on draft day.

 

[Everlastingxxx]

Counterpoint to the 3rd down conversion rate getting better is that if the running game isn't as good, the average distance to gain on 3rd down is presumably going to be longer than it was last season. It's not just a matter of whether the passing game is still intact and has progressed. Converting a 3rd and 7 to Beasley is going to be harder than converting a 3rd and 3.

I guess this is where stats would be needed. Just from my eyeball test, i thought the passing game converted a lot of long 3rd downs. Example: the Seattle game, the running game had been shut down in the second half. If it wasn’t for the passing game converting 3rd and 20, the running game doesn’t get a chance to do what it did in those final minutes.

So you believe the #1 weakness of the offense is the running game? Why would you think that? You don’t think the running lanes will be there? Little hope in Randle and McFadden? Just curious. Thanks

 

[peplaw06]

I guess this is where stats would be needed. Just from my eyeball test, i thought the passing game converted a lot of long 3rd downs. Example: the Seattle game, the running game had been shut down in the second half. If it wasn’t for the passing game converting 3rd and 20, the running game doesn’t get a chance to do what it did in those final minutes.

Oh, I'm sure they converted plenty of 3rd and longs. Don't know how you objectively quantify "a lot." Just saying those odds are worse than converting 3rd and shorts. And with a less effective running game, you're going to have more 3rd and longs. Of course, I'm assuming we have a less effective running game for the purposes of the counterpoint. Which, I pretty much think nothing we could do with the running game would be what we had last year. Even if Murray were back, he probably wouldn't be as great as he was last season.

So you believe the #1 weakness of the offense is the running game? Why would you think that? You don’t think the running lanes will be there? Little hope in Randle and McFadden? Just curious. Thanks

Because, barring injury, we are strong to very strong at QB, OL, TE, top 3 WR. RB is the only unknown... not because the run lanes will not be there. The RBs we have just don't inspire a ton of confidence like the others. Randle and McFadden could surprise though.

 

[Everlastingxxx]

Because, barring injury, we are strong to very strong at QB, OL, TE, top 3 WR. RB is the only unknown... not because the run lanes will not be there. The RBs we have just don't inspire a ton of confidence like the others. Randle and McFadden could surprise though.

I have a lot of confidence in Randle (drafted him in my paid fantasy league). He has proven to be much more explosive. Can he survive the whole season? I don’t know but we didn’t know Murray could either before last season. I think my core belief is that any (almost any) running back can run behind this O-line. I think the Cowboys feel the same way. If the O-line is healthy i don’t see any reason to worry about the running game.

 

[dbair1967]

Except that the number one weakness from the season before (the entire defense) regressed to a league-average defense last year because of the running game... which is now the obvious #1 weakness IMO.

Yeah until I see evidence that the run game is a weakness I'm pretty skeptical about that. This OL if healthy is just too good, and that combined with Romo and our passing game talent mean teams arnt going to be able to stack the box much (if any) against us.

And while there is no question the impact Murray had on our team as a whole because we ran the ball so well, you shouldn't sell short the difference between Kiffin to Marinelli as DC either.

 

[dbair1967]

Who knows? Maybe the Cowboys will pick up Ray Rice in Week 2.

What for? To see him plod to 3.2 yds per carry behind an elite OL?

 

[dbair1967]

Counterpoint to the 3rd down conversion rate getting better is that if the running game isn't as good, the average distance to gain on 3rd down is presumably going to be longer than it was last season. It's not just a matter of whether the passing game is still intact and has progressed. Converting a 3rd and 7 to Beasley is going to be harder than converting a 3rd and 3.

Murray averaged 4.7 yds per carry last yr, which is good but is not "great" or "superb". His yds per attempt went down as the season went on (and he wore down). I'm curious to what you think average to below average guys would average running here. Do you think the guys we have are going to struggle to get 3.0 yds per carry? (which is dismal)

Randle's sample size last yr was somewhat small, but even with eliminating the 60+ yd TD run he had at the end of the blowout Redskins game, his yds per carry was still 5.6, which is superb. Assuming he gets a lot more carries I would expect that to come down, but its definitely not unrealistic to expect him to average at least 4.0 yds per carry, maybe even somewhere around 4.5. If McFadden is healthy he's going to break off quite a few nice runs. Michael has talent and if he learns what to do and focuses so he can get on the field, I don't see him getting a paltry yds per attempt either.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

We signed Vince Mayle to the PS, a WR drafted out of Washington State in the 4th by Cleveland this year.

6'3" 240, caught 148 balls for 2,022 yards and 16 TDs last 2 years. 106 for 1,483 last year.

And 4 scrubs.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Rodney Smith an undrafted WR out of FSU in 2013. Another huge target. Was signed to the PS as well.

I remember people talking about him pre-draft last year.

 

[dbair1967]

Also, there doesn't seem to be much correlation between running the ball well and having a higher 3rd down conversion %

New Orleans led the league in conv % but finished 13th in rushing yds per game. San Diego finished 4th in conv % but 30th in the league in yds rushing per game and near the bottom of the league in yds per attempt. New England, Atlanta and Denver all finished in the bottom half of yds per game rushing but near the top in 3rd down conv %. Miami finished 2nd in the league in yds per attempt but onl 17th in 3rd down conversion. The Giants finished 30th in the league in yds per attempt but 10th overall in 3rd down conv %

 

[Omegasupreme]

Counterpoint to the 3rd down conversion rate getting better is that if the running game isn't as good, the average distance to gain on 3rd down is presumably going to be longer than it was last season. It's not just a matter of whether the passing game is still intact and has progressed. Converting a 3rd and 7 to Beasley is going to be harder than converting a 3rd and 3.

Exactly. Probability says you will have more options to make the first down if you reduce the distance substantially. But letting 3rd down and long puts your series at risk, increases vulnerability to turnover or sacks, and reduces the distance runs or completion options. Frankly the amount of steps that it takes to successfully complete a running play is far less than what has to happen just to complete a pass play. Parcells preferred the running plays to wear down the clock and reduce chances for error or negative plays.

 

[ZeroClub]

What for? To see him plod to 3.2 yds per carry behind an elite OL?

No probably not that. But you are a smart guy. You can probably figure out other reasons.