Sporting News 2 round mock 4/12/11....

[sbk92]

NFL mock draft: Cam Newton still No. 1; Blaine Gabbert drops

Russ Lande
Sporting News


The NFL draft a little more than two weeks away and it's looking more like Carolina is targeting Cam Newton to be the face of its franchise when the Panthers make their selection April 28.

The next quarterback on everyone's draft board is Missouri's Blaine Gabbert. At least six more teams with a pick in the first 12 selections have QB as a projected need.

In Sporting News' latest mock draft, Gabbert makes the biggest move among top tier prospects, downward to Tennessee at No. 8 after being projected as the No. 4 pick (Cincinnati) last week.

In all, six quarterbacks could go in the first two rounds, meaning teams not completely sold on Gabbert will have plenty of options should they choose to wait.

Sporting News' updated mock draft through Round 2:


First round

1. Panthers--Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

2. Broncos--Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

3. Bills--Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama

4. Bengals--A.J. Green, WR, Georgia

5. Cardinals--Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

6. Browns--Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

7. 49ers--Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M

8. Titans--Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

9. Cowboys--Tyron Smith, T, USC

10. Redskins--Anthony Castonzo, T, Boston College

11. Texans--Robert Quinn, OLB, North Carolina

12. Vikings--Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

13. Lions--Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado

14. Rams--Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

15. Dolphins--Mike Pouncey, C, Florida

16. Jaguars--Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal

17. Patriots (from Oakland)--Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri

18. Chargers--Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State

19. Giants--Derek Sherrod, T, Mississippi State

20. Buccaneers--Ryan Kerrigan, DE,Purdue

21. Chiefs--Jabaal Sheard, DE, Pitt

22. Colts--Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois

23. Eagles--Gabe Carimi, T, Wisconsin

24. Saints--Martez Wilson, ILB, Illinois

25. Seahawks--Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa

26. Ravens--Nate Solder, T, Colorado

27. Falcons--Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia

28. Patriots--Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple

29. Bears--Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State

30. Jets--Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor

31. Steelers--J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin

32. Packers--Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona


Second Round

1. Patriots--Danny Watkins, T, Baylor (from Carolina)

2. Bills--Colin Kaepernick QB, Nevada

3. Bengals--Christian Ponder, QB, Florida St.

4. Broncos--Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA

5. Browns--Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami (FL)

6. Cardinals--James Carpenter, T, Alabama

7. Titans--Drake Nevis, DT, LSU

8. Cowboys--Jerrard Tarrant, S, Georgia Tech

9. Redskins--Jake Locker, QB, Washington

10. Texans--Jarvis Jenkins, DT, Clemson

11. Vikings--Kendrick Ellis, DE, Hampton

12. Lions--Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky

13. 49ers--Richard Sherman, CB, Stanford

14. Broncos (from Miami)--Rahim Moore, S, UCLA

15. Cardinals--Justin Houston, DE, Georgia

16. Raiders--Stefen Wisniewski, C, Penn State

17. Jaguars--Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Troy

18. Chargers--Jason Pinkston, T, Pitt

19. Buccaneers--Marcus Gilbert , T, Florida

20. Giants--Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

21. Colts--Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas

22. Eagles--Chris Rucker, CB, Michigan State

23. Chiefs--Titus Young, WR, Boise State

24. Saints--Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina

25. Seahawks--Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland

26. Ravens--Christian Ballard, DE, Iowa

27. Falcons--Kyle Rudolph,TE, Notre Dame

28. Patriots--Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech

29. Chargers (from New York Jets)--Greg Little, WR, North Carolina

30. Bears--Rodney Hudson, C, Florida State

31. Steelers--Curtis Brown, CB, Texas

32. Packers--Orlando Franklin, T, Miami (FL)

 

[sbk92]

This is a great mock.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

who the **** is that guy??

 

[sbk92]

Here's a good Q&A with Lande (pronounced Landy) with some talk of his background....


http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/27/q-and-a-with-n-f-l-talent-evaluator-russ-lande/

Q. and A. With N.F.L. Talent Evaluator Russ Lande
By MATT WALDMAN

Russ Lande is the Sporting News N.F.L. draft expert responsible for insider content, writing scouting reports on college players. He is also the author of the annual GM Jr Draft Guide, which is available to the N.F.L. and the general public. Lande gained his experience as a former scout and front-office executive. Before joining The Sporting News, he spent three years as a college scout for the Cleveland Browns. The Footballguys.com staff writer and Rookie Scouting Portfolio author Matt Waldman sat down with Lande after Day 3 of Senior Bowl practices to discuss the craft of talent evaluation and what he has observed with this class of players in Mobile, Ala.

MW: How did scouting and talent evaluation become so fascinating to you?

RL: I think it just happened growing up as a Chargers fan. Bobby Beathard came to the Chargers. When he got hired, there were all sorts of articles about him and his background and I just fell in love there. I used to cut out all of the reports that you would see in the papers and read about all of the prospects. When I turned 15 or 16, I started to watch all of the college games and taking notes. It became a passion.

MW: You’re known for having opinions on key players that differ from a lot of draft analysts in the major media. Your high grades on Tom Brady and Marc Bulger are examples of that. It’s obvious that you are not giving high grades just to be controversial and call attention to yourself. Otherwise, you wouldn’t be earning opportunities to work for The Sporting News or ESPN First Take. Can you explain what factors influence you to stand apart on key players?

RL: I think more than anything it comes down to being taught by some great people like Jack Faulkner to Coach Vermeil. You have to trust what you see on film. Above all else, about 90 percent of your grade should be what you see on film. I chart, I grade, everything’s on film and I won’t change a guy’s grade drastically when I come here or to other all-star games, or when I go to the combine. I might move a guy 10 spots in a round or maybe down one round, but I’m never going to move a guy down four rounds or up three rounds just based on how he throws a ball in a practice or works out. It’s all about how they play in a game.

MW: Is there anything that you learn from these practices that you don’t get from studying film?

RL: Oh, no question. I think you get the physical look of the kid. You get a really good look at the body type. I think you get a great opportunity to compare players when they are here together. A great example this year is the top two tackles Anthony Castonzo and Nate Solder. You can see them side by side and see the traits that one has that is going to put him a notch above the other. You also get to see them compete.

There was a kid in this morning’s practice, Kendric Burney. He was covering a guy; he didn’t do it exactly right. But when the coach pulled him over, he took the coaching. Sometimes you watch other guys and their eyes are rolling, they don’t listen, or they walk away. Burney was mentally present and actually repeated back to the coach what was expected of him.

You get a chance to see their practice skills, their practice habits and how they take coaching. And that’s so vital when you determine who goes ahead of whom. When you have third or fourth rounders and you have one guy that takes coaching and one that might not. That’s huge.

Also if you’re affiliated with a team, you get to interview the kids. There’s a lot to be gained from the all-star games. You just can’t put too much emphasis on them.

MW: Can you tell me about quarterbacks, wide receivers, running backs and tight ends that you feel helped their cause this week?

RL: I think Colin Kaepernick helped himself. I think he came here with people loving what they saw on tape, but they didn’t know what to really expect. He’s not perfect by any stretch of the imagination, but I think the ball comes out of his hand with a burst; he’s got a little snap to it. He’s got a really live arm and he’s a big-league athlete. He helped himself just by playing in an N.F.L. passing offense for the first time, which convinced people that he’s really going to be able to make this transition.

I think Titus Young helped himself a lot. He has great routes, he showed phenomenal hands, and I think he showed the ability to get open. I think Leonard Hankerson helped himself. He showed that for a big receiver that he’s much more athletic than you would expect. He can get in and out of his routes quickly. Vincent Brown from San Diego State had a good week. The issue is that you don’t see a burst or explosiveness, but he runs good routes and has good hands. The combine is going to be important for him. He’s going to need to run well if he wants to overcome the concerns that he can’t run.

Running back Kendall Hunter had a good week. He’s a little guy, but he showed that he’s got that burst, that elusiveness and that ability to get through cracks. He can play in the league – he’s not going to be a starter, but he can be that second back. Tight end D.J. Williams had a great week. He showed that he’s never going to be your prototypical in-line tight end, but nowadays with teams moving to guys like Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark there’s a lot of those guys in this kid. I think he’s going to be a highly productive, starting tight end in the league. Luke Stocker helped himself a lot. He’s not a great athlete, but a good athlete who has better foot speed once he gets moving than you expect. He also has great body control and great hands.

MW: Who do you think hurt their cause?

RL: Dwayne Harris, the receiver from East Carolina, really hurt himself. I had never seen him up close until now and he really looks like a running back with that linear build. And when he gets moving he’s a really slow, plodding guy that couldn’t even get away from safeties.

And I think Jake Locker hurt himself, I really do. There’s no question physically that he’s got all the tools. He’s got good mechanics, but his accuracy is terrible. I know I spoke to a coach today to get his opinion and he said if a guy’s mechanics are good and he’s smart enough, but his accuracy stinks then there’s not a lot you can do. You’re pretty much saying that you’re always going to have an inaccurate thrower. And if you can’t be accurate you cannot be a quarterback in the N.F.L. I think Locker hurt himself a lot this week.

MW: Quarterback play can be analogous to an actor reading a scene. Passers are trying to do multiple things at once to sell a concept to the defense so they react in a way to the offense’s advantage. Do you agree with that?

RL: Oh yeah, it totally is. One example is Aaron Rodgers, who coming out of college couldn’t move defenders. He was very good technically, he could throw the ball, but he couldn’t get the safety to move with his eyes. Now you watch him and he’s one of the best at pulling a guy [out of position to create an open area for a receiver].

That’s something that Jake Locker has improved upon, but the problem is that you can do all the work you want and improve in every area and if you’re inaccurate it doesn’t matter. That’s the problem with him. I love him. I want him to succeed – he’s a great kid – but he’s not accurate and I think that’s going to be his downfall. I don’t think he’s going to be a starting quarterback in the N.F.L.

MW: Who here showed some of these elements that we just talked about when it comes to good quarterback play?

RL: It’s so hard to say Kaepernick because he’s so new to this style of offense, but he doesn’t get flustered. He can step up [in the pocket]; he can reset and find the guy. I think Greg McElory actually showed mentally it’s not a problem. Now I think physically he’s probably going to be kept from becoming a starter, but mentally you can see there’s no issue – he understands what’s going on. I just don’t think physically he can get the ball on time to take advantage of what he sees.

I think Christian Ponder is a tough one to get a feel for because physically he’s a very gifted kid, but he has arm issues. Mentally he’s off the charts – a smart kid with great character. I think he’s the one guy that could find himself skyrocketing up draft boards if he goes to the combine and his arm checks out. I think he’s a very gifted kid.

MW: Is there something about the way scouts interact with general managers and coaches during the draft process that the general public isn’t aware of that you can share?

RL: I think there are two big misperceptions. The first is that there’s a lot of debate on draft day. Ninety percent of that is done before that day. You have your board set. You have groupings of players and you’re not in big arguments. There are arguments, but not on draft day. Most of the time, the arguments are long-settled.

The other is something you hear a lot in the media, which is that a team drafts either for need or for the best player available. Almost all of the time they both coincide. What most teams have is steps or ladders where there are 3-5 guys – or sometimes as many as 7 guys – and when it comes close for your time to pick your steps start to dwindle. And when it comes time to pick you usually have 3-5 guys left on the ladder that you feel have close to the same ability. One of those 3-5 guys you will feel fits the system. Most of the time teams will stay within this system.

MW: How much film do you watch a week?

RL: From August through the end of December, usually I start at about 9:30 a.m. and go until 1 p.m. Then I return at about 3 p.m. and go until about 6 p.m. That is about 6 hours a day and about 30 hours a week. I’m sure there are people that do more, but there’s only so much time I’m willing to take.

MW: Are you still learning new things about the game?

RL: All the time – especially at these events, because I get to talk to some of the coaches and ask them questions…I learn a ton from watching film and talking to different people who know a lot more than I do about the X’s and O’s. I’m always learning.

 

[sbk92]

He talks about the clusters teams have on their boards. A lot of fans act like each and every player that's draft eligible has their own individual and unique grade. As if the player at 14 has to be better in their eyes than the guy at 15 and that guy has to be better than 16 and so on. That can't possibly be the case. Obviously when you're dealing with that many players you're gonna have plenty with the same grade. And then need comes into play. I'd venture to guess this happens 90% of the time in the 32 war rooms. Teams are drafting need from the top tier left on their board.

But the best player available theory applies when you have that one guy at the top of the board and a clear drop off to the next set of players. In that case, you have to take that guy. Or you have to trade out. That should always be your philosophy.

 

[sbk92]

Do your own value board and you'll see what I mean. No matter how you stack it, you'll second guess the order.

Do I really believe this guy at 20 is inferior to this guy at 17? Not really but somebody has to fill those slots.

 

[Cythim]

He talks about the clusters teams have on their boards. A lot of fans act like each and every player that's draft eligible has their own individual and unique grade. As if the player at 14 has to be better in their eyes than the guy at 15 and that guy has to be better than 16 and so on. That can't possibly be the case. Obviously when you're dealing with that many players you're gonna have plenty with the same grade. And then need comes into play. I'd venture to guess this happens 90% of the time in the 32 war rooms. Teams are drafting need from the top tier left on their board.

That is how I've been doing my fantasy drafting the last three years.

 

[sbk92]

That is how I've been doing my fantasy drafting the last three years.

It's pretty much the only way you can. You're splitting hairs with these players. Especially when you're talking about college kids now becoming pro players.

 

[Cythim]

It's pretty much the only way you can. You're splitting hairs with these players. Especially when you're talking about college kids now becoming pro players.

So if Prince is #9, Tyron is #10 and Quinn is #11 do the Cowboys take the need pick or go with the highest rated player? What would Jerry do?

 

[Bob Sacamano]

He'd make the dumbest decision known to man.

 

[sbk92]

So if Prince is #9, Tyron is #10 and Quinn is #11 do the Cowboys take the need pick or go with the highest rated player? What would Jerry do?

Well that's the thing. It could be that there is a gap between 9 and 10 on the Cowboys' board. And maybe 10-14 could carry the same grade. We have no way of knowing that. You'd have to be a fly on the wall of the war room.

I don't think Jerry has any interest in taking a cornerback in the first round. Unless he decides to get rid of Newman. I think he's too loyal to do that right now. I never believed the Amukamara to Dallas hype.

If Quinn didn't have his brain tumor, I'd take him. As is, I go Smith.

 

[dbair1967]

This is a great mock.

Does "great" now mean awful?

Seriously, thats pathetic.

 

[LAZARUS_LOGAN]

Does "great" now mean awful?

Seriously, thats pathetic.

Exactly. Especially that 2nd rounder for the Cowboys. I was like WTF? So many reaches.