Random 2011 Draft Chatter....

[sbk92]

Phil Taylor a first-rounder?

Baylor product Phil Taylor -- one of the most fit in this class to fill the nose tackle position in a 3-4 scheme -- will go through six visits and five private workouts with NFL teams over the duration of the pre-draft season, according to a report Friday from Aaron Wilson of National Football Post. Taylor has already gone through workouts with the Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs and another AFC playoff team, Wilson reports with information from a source.

Though this is speculation, it's pretty easy to narrow down who this mystery AFC playoff team is. Of the others to qualify for the postseason in 2010, the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots appear set at nose tackle. With the Chiefs already mentioned in the report, that leaves the Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets.

Though Taylor is projected to man the nose in a three-man front -- which would certainly make him a good target for the Jets, who parted ways with Kris Jenkins this offseason -- the Colts do need some help on their interior D-line as well. It wouldn't be surprising to see him land in either spot.

 

[sbk92]

Second-round QB for Bengals?

On the night of April 28, the Cincinnati Bengals may use the No. 4 overall pick on a quarterback, if Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton falls to them and they feel like investing that pick at the position. But if they elect to go another direction -- wide receiver, defensive line, etc. -- will they make a play for a QB in a later round?

That's the hypothetical scenario within which Jason Garrison of Bengals blog Cincy Jungle made his pick for the Bengals at No. 35 overall, and his choice is FSU QB Christian Ponder.

The ensuing question is whether Ponder will be there for the Bengals to take at No. 35. An update last week following the FSU pro day indicated that Ponder had separated himself from the rest of the "second-tier" QBs, and it's possible he'll be taken in the late first round by a QB-needy team trading up.

 

[sbk92]

Latest Miller tidbits

Linebacker prospect Von Miller isn't expected to last long on the night of April 28, as he's been linked to just about every team with a Top 10 pick in the NFL draft. Friday, Aaron Wilson of National Football Post provided an update on which teams are taking a deeper look at the Texas A&M product as pre-draft season continues.

Miller's next round of visits will include the Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans and Washington Redskins, Wilson reports, per a source. In addition, Miller will attend the Dallas Cowboys' local workout day, and has already met with the Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills.

Of the Top 10 teams, that leaves just the Carolina Panthers and Cincinnati Bengals as the franchises without any public interest in Miller. That doesn't mean he's not under consideration, though it does appear that those teams would have more logical options at different positions.

In the opinion of fellow NFP scribe Wes Bunting, Miller will not get past the 49ers at No. 7 overall.

 

[sbk92]

RB surprise for Atlanta

The Atlanta Falcons have a reputation as a run-heavy team, and while they certainly ran the ball often in 2010 (fifth in total carries), they didn't do it particularly well (twelfth in rushing yards, 25th in average gain). Their top two runners, Michael Turner and Jason Snelling, are both big backs over 220 pounds -- Atlanta could really use a smaller, shiftier, change-of-pace runner.

ESPN NFC South blogger Pat Yasinkas has one player in mind: North Carolina's Johnny White. Yasinkas cites ESPN draft guru Todd McShay's comments on White: "He played different positions early in his career. He was a defensive back, they moved him over as wide receiver. They tinkered with him. Right around 5-10, little over 200 pounds. He's your average NFL back size basically. He has quickness. He has that lateral agility and the ability to make the sharp cuts and stick his foot in the dirt and explode. He has tremendous ball skills."

Yasinkas says that White would be a great fit for the Falcons, and also mentions the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a possible destination:

- Vince Verhei

--

Pat Yasinkas
Injury derailed White's senior season.

"White's been under the radar because he didn't have a huge college career. He wasn't really a force until last season when he carried 130 times for 720 yards and seven touchdowns before breaking his clavicle against Florida State in early November. But this is a guy who seems to have the tools to play on Sundays and I wouldn't be totally surprised to see him land in the NFC South as a mid-round pick."

 

[sbk92]

Schefter on No. 1 pick

The Carolina Panthers have three basic options with the first overall selection in the NFL draft:

1) Take Patrick Peterson, the consensus choice for the draft's top player, but at a position (cornerback) that is on the lower end of priorities for most teams;

2) Take one of the potentially dominant defensive linemen available (Marcell Dareus, Da'Quan Bowers, Robert Quinn, Nick Fairley);

3) Gamble on one of the quarterbacks, filling the most important position on the field, but taking a player with plenty of question marks.

ESPN NFL expert Adam Schefter says option 3 is the most likely outcome, and the Panthers might have already decided which quarterback they'll take:

- Vince Verhei

--

Adam Schefter
Cam's the man.

"Last week I sensed Blaine Gabbert would be the No. 1 overall pick; this week I'm more on the Cam Newton bandwagon. The more I hear, the more it sounds like Newton is the player to beat for the No. 1 pick. The Panthers play in the same division as Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman, need improved quarterback play and need to create buzz to sell some tickets -- no player can do that as well as Newton. A lot can change in the next five weeks, but I believe Carolina goes quarterback at No. 1. And today, based on what I'm hearing, I'm leaning Newton over Gabbert, the player I initially thought would go No. 1."

 

[sbk92]

Redskins' biggest draft need

With Donovan McNabb clearly not wanted in Washington and Rex Grossman being, well, Rex Grossman, it's clear that the Washington Redskins could use a new quarterback, and might well take one with the tenth pick in April's NFL draft.

ESPN's Matt Williamson says that would be the wrong decision, however. He points out that Washington's best receiver, Santana Moss, will be a free agent when the lockout ends, while deep threat Anthony Armstrong is "pretty much a one-trick pony" and "certainly is not a No. 1 wide receiver at this stage of his career." And there's nothing behind them -- the Redskin's third-leading wide receiver last season was the 39-year-old Joey Galloway.

"The rest of the wide receivers on this roster are pedestrian at best -- and they really don't offer much upside," Williamson writes. If Julio Jones from Alabama is available when Washington makes its first pick on draft day, passing him by could be a big mistake. The Redskins must add able bodies at wide receiver -- and more than one."

 

[sbk92]

QB questions for the Chiefs

UPDATE:The Kansas City Chiefs' interest in a late-round quarterback prospect (see below) may go beyond seeking a solid backup for Matt Cassel. Matt Williamson says that 2011 will be a make-or-break year for Cassel, and if he struggles, Kansas City may hope to have a long-term alternative to turn to.

"Cassel played smarter than ever and is certainly more comfortable behind center pre-snap and post-snap," Williamson says. "He has realized that he doesn't have to make great throw after great throw to put his team in a position to win. Cassel has realized that he has a potent and extremely well-coached defense at his disposal to keep games tight. But the Chiefs also don't ask a lot of him and when they do, bad things too often happen --as they did against the Ravens in the playoffs."

We've got thoughts from ESPN AFC West blogger Bill Williamson at the end of this post.

- Vince Verhei

---

Unlike up to a third of their peers, the Kansas City Chiefs are set at starting quarterback heading into the 2011 season. With Matt Cassel returning, the team will have a leg up on some of the teams attempting to install new offenses or shepherd new QBs into the mix. But there've been rumblings that the Chiefs are looking to add a backup this offseason, and the draft is one way to accomplish this.

According to agent Brian Ayrault, the Chiefs have "shown a lot of interest" in UNC product T.J. Yates, and Chiefs QB coach Jim Zorn is working out with Yates on Friday.

Yates grades out as the No. 13 QB prospect according to ESPN's Scouts, Inc. and could be a late-round pick for the Chiefs.

- Tim Kavanagh

--

Bill Williamson
Cassel's job secure?

"Williamson makes some good points. It's clear that there are still question marks. But the Chiefs feel good about Cassel. I think they will work hard to continue to surround him with quality talent and his time in Kansas City will be a success. It's been just two seasons and the Chiefs have an unexpected division title under Cassel's watch. That's a nice start."

 

[sbk92]

Why Peterson won't go No. 1

Most observers will tell you that the best player available in April's NFL draft is LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson. If he's not the first player selected, it won't be because of his ability, but rather the position he plays -- for most teams, quarterbacks and defensive linemen take precedence over defensive backs.

The NFL removed one ace up Peterson's sleeve when they voted to move kickoffs up to the 35-yard line. As ESPN draft expert Todd McShay notes, Peterson ranked ninth in the nation in kickoff returns last season. Any benefit he would bring to an NFL team as a kick returner, though, is somewhat negated by the new rules, which will likely produce more touchbacks and fewer kick returns.

The impact could be especially severe in for the Carolina Panthers, holders of the draft's first selection, and a team that plays in one the NFL's most touchback-friendly stadiums. Rhys Lloyd handled kickoffs for Carolina last season. While only eight percent of his kickoffs were touchbacks on the road, that rate soared to 32 percent at home.

 

[sbk92]

Can Ingram hold onto the ball?

There are plenty of questions in the NFL draft this year. How far will the best player (LSU Patrick Peterson) fall? Who will be the first team to take a chance on a quarterback? Who will go first, Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert? Few mock drafts can agree on these questions, but one thing seems nearly unanimous: With the 15th pick, the Miami Dolphins will select Alabama running back Mark Ingram.

Should the Dolphins be worried about Ingram's hands? ESPN AFC East blogger Tim Graham notes the fumble rates for some of the top running backs in this year's draft (pointing out along the way that the New England Patriots should also be paying attention), and it looks like this won't be a problem for Ingram:

- Vince Verhei

--

Tim Graham
Spotlight on ball security

"Jacquizz Rodgers from Oregon State and Mikel Leshoure from Illinois had zero fumbles last year. Leshoure never fumbled in his career. Rodgers fumbled once. Alabama star Mark Ingram, considered the best back in the draft, fumbled once last year and three times total. Kansas State running back Daniel Thomas raised a red flag with seven fumbles last year and 11 for his career. Oklahoma State running back Kendall Hunter fumbled twice last year, but 10 times in his career. Pitt running back Dion Lewis fumbled nine times on 596 career touches, another bad percentage."

 

[sbk92]

Newton to Miami?

We've written plenty about Miami Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne lately, and you can only write "his job's in jeopardy" so many times. We all know that his status on the team is iffy, but what we haven't discussed much is what the team might do to replace him.

What about Cam Newton? Steve Wyche of the NFL Network says the Newton will have a private workout with the Fins this weekend.

Wyche says Newton also has private workouts scheduled with a half-dozen other teams that draft before the Dolphins do at number 15. It's doubtful that all of those teams will pass on Newton, so if Miami wants him, they'll have to trade up to get him -- and that will be difficult to do, because they have no second-round pick (they shipped it to the Denver Broncos as part of the Brandon Marshall deal). While Miami is doing their homework on Newton, it's difficult to see him ending up in a Miami uniform.

 

[sbk92]

Packers moving up for Von?

Last week, we wondered what it would take for the Green Bay Packers to move up in the draft to select someone like Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller. This week, ESPN NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert spoke to Green Bay general manager Ted Thompson about making that kind of deal.

Should the Pack be willing to trade a bundle of picks, since late-round draftees are unlikely to make the team anyway? "I don't necessarily agree with that," Thompson said. "We had a pretty good team going into last year's draft, and we had four college free agents make our team and contribute to us winning the Super Bowl. I think the more picks the better, no matter what shape your team is in."

Between Thompson's "more picks" philosophy and the cost of moving into the draft's top ten (see below), it's hard to envision Green Bay making that kind of move:

- Vince Verhei

--

Kevin Seifert
Entire draft up for grabs?

"If you go by the old draft value chart, at least, you see that the No. 32 pick is worth 590 points. The No. 7 pick is worth 1,500 points, and No. 8 is worth 1,400. That means the Packers would need to 'make up' at least 810 points to make the deal work based on the chart. How steep is that? The remainder of the Packers' draft -- their assigned picks in rounds 2-7 -- wouldn't be enough. In the end, a team that isn't desperate to trade down might require the Packers to give up their first-round pick in 2012 in addition to this year's first- and second-round pick. Would you give up at least three high picks for Von Miller? He better be one heck of a future Hall of Fame linebacker."

 

[sbk92]

Locker to slide?

Most observers expect Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton to be the first two quarterbacks off the board in April's NFL draft, but there's no consensus on who will be third. One candidate is Washington's Jake Locker, whose name has been heard in rumors involving the Washington Redskins, Minnesota Vikings, and Seattle Seahawks.

But what if none of those teams like him? A report by Evan Silva of ProFootballTalk.com (citing FOX Sports' Adam Caplan) says "most teams" give Locker a second-round or lower grade. While everyone loves his character, athleticism, and arm strength, his accuracy woes and mechanics are viewed as a "major problem."

This evaluation could impact teams at both ends of the draft spectrum. If you're the Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, or Arizona Cardinals, do you take Newton or Gabbert (who have question marks of their own) in the top five of the draft? Or do you go with a safer pick like Patrick Peterson or Marcell Dareus, knowing you'll have a shot at Locker early in round two?

 

[sbk92]

Gabbert and the Vikings

Few teams in the NFL are so desperate for a quarterback as the Minnesota Vikings. Unfortunately for them, several teams are in better position to take the best passers in this year's NFL draft.

Tom Pelissero of 1500 ESPN in Minneapolis says the Vikings know which quarterback they'd prefer: "I think [Blaine Gabbert]'s the guy they'd want if available," he says.

"If available" is the tricky part. Nearly a dozen teams will go in the first round before Minnesota, and at least seven of those teams could possibly draft a quarterback. If the Vikings really think Gabbert is their best option, they'd best be prepared to make a hefty offer to trade to the top of the draft -- and that could be difficult, since players can't be traded unless the lockout ends between now and the draft.

If Gabbert is not available, Pelissero says the most likely quarterback to end up in Minnesota is TCU's Andy Dalton, followed by Washington's Jake Locker, then Auburn's Cam Newton, and finally Arkansas' Ryan Mallett.

 

[sbk92]

Surprising Cardinals draft idea

The Arizona Cardinals pick fifth in April's draft, and for months their plan of attack has seemed pretty obvious: Take Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert if either is there for the taking. If both quarterbacks go off the board, take the best front-seven defender available.

But what if Arizona went in another direction and grabbed a wide receiver? ESPN NFC West blogger Mike Sando explores the possibilities in his latest mailbag:

- Vince Verhei

--

Mike Sando
Green to Cardinals?

"I've wondered in the back of my mind what Arizona would do at No. 5 if a wide receiver were clearly the most talented, highly rated player on their board. A.J. Green comes to mind. The Cardinals would be upgrading the playmaking ability of their offense, guarding against Steve Breaston's knee issues and giving themselves a long-term option at the position should Larry Fitzgerald leave in free agency following the 2011 season."

 

[sbk92]

No fireworks allowed in Buffalo's draft room

The Buffalo Bills' preparations for their first-round draft choice won't be as easy as 1-2-3.

They own the third overall selection. One might think they'll only need to identify three franchise players they'd be satisfied with, accounting for the prospects who'd be taken first and second.

"That's a very simplistic way to put it, and that is very true," Bills coach Chan Gailey said Tuesday at the NFL owners meeting in New Orleans. "But you've got to have the whole thing worked out because if somebody calls you in that 15 minutes with an offer you can't refuse and gives you No. 9, you better have nine."

Gailey also provided some insight on how Buffalo's draft room operates at such a time.

He said general manager Buddy Nix "makes the decision on whether it's best to move up, move down, all that kind of stuff." Gailey suggested he and vice president of college scouting Tom Modrak provide input as required, but that it's Nix's show.

"I try to make sure he understands what I think we need for our football team," Gailey said, "where we need the most help, and if he asks my opinion about the players that are in the draft, I've watched them and how their abilities might fit into what we're doing."

I asked Gailey what would happen if the Bills were on the clock and a player was on the board he truly coveted.

"Me? I have a guy?" Gailey said. "I don't have a guy. It is our guy."

Gailey then broke into an imaginary debate that would take place among scouts and coaches in a draft room.

"This guy would bring this. This guy would bring this. This guy would bring this," he said. "Whichever one we choose, that's our guy.

"I've been in rooms where the best arguer got his way. Whoever could argue the best or the loudest or was the most persuasive ... I've been in rooms like that.

"But Buddy and I, when we started this whole thing, we said, 'If somebody is trying to persuade us, we're going to put him out the room.' I told the coaches, 'Don't try to talk us into anybody. Give us information. Then let Buddy make a decision.' "

And what kind of vote does owner Ralph Wilson have?

"He is the boss," Gailey said. "He has all influence, every bit of influence. He says, 'Take this guy,' we take him. But he's smart enough not to do that. He hired people to do a job. He lets them do their job. He's letting us do our job. That's what I've seen."

 

[sbk92]

More buzz on Jets' first pick

With less than five weeks before the NFL draft, we're entering the home stretch. The collegiate season, all-star games and combine have been completed for some time now, and many schools have already held their pro days. The final step is individual visits and workouts, and we've kept our eye on those developments. Though some changes will be made between now and Apr. 28, teams have a pretty good framework for their draft board at this point.

For the New York Jets, who were amongst the NFL's Final Four for the second straight season in 2010, the general consensus amongst media pundits is that they'll re-stock on defense with their first pick. Most recently, they've been linked to Baylor defensive tackle Phil Taylor, who would function as the nose tackle in the team's three-man front following the decision to part ways with veteran Kris Jenkins.

Eric Allen of NewYorkJets.com posted an update within which he profiled a number of the top defensive line draft prospects, and noted in his blurb on Taylor that the DT has been seen as a strong option for the Jets by many draft prognosticators.

If Taylor falls out of favor -- or he's drafted prior to the Jets being on the clock -- there is some thought that the team will grab another D-lineman to slot at DE or a pass-rushing OLB prospect.

 

[sbk92]

Kerrigan in Jags' sights

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a slew of needs entering this offseason, including help in the defensive backfield. But for some folks, the theory is that a defense can only be as good as the men on the front lines, so after bolstering the interior last offseason, there's an idea that the team will draft an edge-rusher at defensive end to bother Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub and QB Titans. [Editor's note: In Nashville, they're hoping to find themselves someone as dangerous as QB Eagles this offseason.]

There are a number of strong DE prospects in this year's draft class, but one that fits both the on- and off-field expectations of the Jags -- at least in the view of Vito Stellino of the Florida Times-Union -- is Purdue product Ryan Kerrigan.

Stellino writes that given what Kerrigan would bring to the team, he'd certainly be considered for the Jags at No. 16 overall if he's still on the board. Whether he will be or not remains in question, as Tony Pauline of DraftInsider.net reported on March 21 that Kerrigan's stock was on the rise, and that a Top 15 selection wouldn't be out of the question.

ESPN's Mel Kiper, Jr. moved Kerrigan up on his "Big Board" rankings this week:

- Tim Kavanagh

--

Mel Kiper, Jr.
An unstoppable force

"Led nation with 26 TFL and was impossible to block, even with double-teams."

 

[sbk92]

More on Broncos' pick trade

The Denver Broncos' desire to trade down has been a fervent discussion during this pre-draft season. The team has a top-heavy collection of picks this year, with three picks in the first two rounds, but nothing in the fourth or fifth. With all their needs, it's been argued that an additional pick or two would be handy. The latest theory -- and it's a conspiratorial one -- is that the Broncos' public interest in the top quarterback prospects has less to do with them actually wanting to draft a QB, and more to do with driving up the perceived value of these players so that other teams would want the No. 2 pick.

Contrary to that belief is the idea that the Broncos' top pick will be very hard to actually trade, as Mike Klis of the Denver Post wrote recently. As Klis notes, with the uncertainty of the rookie wage scale being part of the new CBA, teams may not want to trade up to the second pick, given the high salary for the player taken engendered by that position. "If it stays like it's been there's no way anybody's trading," Broncos head coach John Fox said Tuesday, per Klis. "You don't want to be up there a lot."

That said, let's hypothesize that the Carolina Panthers take either Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton first overall (not a big stretch). This will mean that other QB-needy teams in the Top 12 -- the Arizona Cardinals at No. 5, the San Francisco 49ers at No. 7, the Tennessee Titans at No. 8 and the Minnesota Vikings at No. 12 -- might want to make the move to jump ahead of the Buffalo Bills, who appear to be at least somewhat interested in taking the remaining top-tier QB on the board. The Washington Redskins -- sitting at No. 10 -- are also a possibility, though given their depleted draft pick coffers (they lack a third- and fourth-rounder thanks to the trades for Donovan McNabb and Jammal Brown), they may just sit tight this time around.

If there's no cap on rookie wages, this means that the No. 2 pick is going to get a massive deal, as Klis and Fox rightly point out. However, the teams mentioned above will be doling out a slightly less massive deal if they stay at their current draft position, and may believe it's worth the extra dough if they are sold on Gabbert or Newton.

 

[sbk92]

Case for Peterson as No. 1

Friday, we provided a look at why the Carolina Panthers might not want to select LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson with the first overall pick; namely, that his talents in the kick return game might be tempered by the situation at Bank of America Stadium, which is more touchback-friendly than some other NFL fields.

Sunday, Dan Pompei of National Football Post posted a column noting some reasons why Peterson should be the No. 1 pick, including this key risk avoidance quote: "You'd rather have a very good but not great cornerback with the No. 1 pick than a flaming bust of a quarterback."

Peterson -- whose game has been compared to Hall of Famer Rod Woodson -- has drawn quite a lot of accolades, including being called the best prospect in the draft by a number of pundits, but there are some factors working against him, including his low Wonderlic score and the fact that he's worked mostly in press coverage. In the end, it may come down to whether the Panthers are sold on one of the Top 2 QBs, as ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter recently wrote:

- Tim Kavanagh

--

Adam Schefter
Newton now the front-runner

"I think Peterson's in play at No. 1, but I don't think he will be the pick. Last week I sensed Blaine Gabbert would be the No. 1 overall pick; this week I'm more on the Cam Newton bandwagon. The more I hear, the more it sounds like Newton is the player to beat for the No. 1 pick. The Panthers play in the same division as Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman, need improved quarterback play and need to create buzz to sell some tickets -- no player can do that as well as Newton. A lot can change in the next five weeks, but I believe Carolina goes quarterback at No. 1. And today, based on what I'm hearing, I'm leaning Newton over Gabbert, the player I initially thought would go No. 1."

 

[sbk92]

Pats investigating Solder

Aaron Wilson of National Football Post has reported that Colorado offensive tackle prospect Nate Solder will be visiting with the New England Patriots this week. Solder is amongst the group of OTs that have been penciled in as first-rounders, though the general draft pundit consensus is that none are locks to be of the franchise left tackle variety.

The Patriots have one solid starting OT returning in Sebastian Vollmer, but another, veteran Matt Light, is hitting free agency this offseason, as Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com tweeted following news of the Solder visit. As a result, drafting an OT prospect this year would make sense. Considering that free agency might take place after the draft this offseason, this changes the dynamic of how teams address their positions of need. In addition, the Pats may also have an idea of whether or not Light wants to re-sign, given that they were able to discuss the matter with him directly prior to the embargo on league business on March 4. Information gleaned from those conversations could drive their decision-making process on drafting an OT early.