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Jerry_Jones_For_Life
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Saints 45
Cowboys 41
There's gonna be a lot offense in this game. I think we lose in this shootout.
Cowboys 41
There's gonna be a lot offense in this game. I think we lose in this shootout.
Jonathan Bales is a special contributor to SportsDayDFW.com. He’s the founder of The DC Times and writes for DallasCowboys.com and the New York Times. He’s also the author of Fantasy Football for Smart People. He can be reached at jonathan@thedctimes.com.
You can follow him @TheCowboysTimes.
After a thrilling overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Dallas Cowboys sit in a three-way tie for first place atop the NFC East. With two games remaining in the 2012 season, the Cowboys control their own destiny toward the postseason. So what are their odds of winning the NFC East? Let’s take a look at the remaining schedules for each squad:
Cowboys: New Orleans, @Washington
Redskins: @Eagles, Cowboys
Giants: @Ravens, Eagles
Like I did in last week’s breakdown of the Cowboys’ playoff chances, I’ll assume the Cowboys, Giants, and Redskins all possess a 50 percent chance to win each remaining contest—likely not far from reality. Since the Cowboys still play the Redskins in Week 17, one of those two teams is extremely likely to win the NFC East. Here’s why. . .
There are four possible outcomes over the Cowboys’ final two contests: WW, LW, WL, and LL. The first outcome—if the ‘Boys win both games—would win them the NFC East because, even if the Giants win both of their two remaining games, the Cowboys will trump them on a division tiebreaker. The last scenario would obviously knock Dallas out of the playoffs, as would the third.
If the Cowboys lose to New Orleans and beat Washington in Week 17, they can still get into the playoffs if the Giants lose at least one of their two remaining games. In that case, the Cowboys would either be tied with the Giants at 9-7 or be in a tie with both the Giants and Redskins at 9-7 (depending on the Redskins’ fate in Week 16). Per NFL.com, head-to-head and three-team tiebreaking rules within the division are as follows:
1.Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Since the Cowboys will have a better division record than the Giants if they win in Washington, they’d get in if the two teams end up tied. If all three teams have the same record, Dallas would also win that tiebreaker due to a superior record in common games.
Thus, the Cowboys’ chances of making the playoffs are 25 percent—the odds of winning both remaining games—plus the probability of losing in New Orleans, winning in Washington, and seeing the Giants lose at least one of their remaining games. Assuming the Giants have a 50 percent win probability, the odds of them losing just one more game (at a minimum) are 75 percent. Factoring that into the equation gives us the final probability of Dallas winning the NFC East—43.8 percent.
Not bad after a 3-5 start, huh?
You can follow him @TheCowboysTimes.
After a thrilling overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Dallas Cowboys sit in a three-way tie for first place atop the NFC East. With two games remaining in the 2012 season, the Cowboys control their own destiny toward the postseason. So what are their odds of winning the NFC East? Let’s take a look at the remaining schedules for each squad:
Cowboys: New Orleans, @Washington
Redskins: @Eagles, Cowboys
Giants: @Ravens, Eagles
Like I did in last week’s breakdown of the Cowboys’ playoff chances, I’ll assume the Cowboys, Giants, and Redskins all possess a 50 percent chance to win each remaining contest—likely not far from reality. Since the Cowboys still play the Redskins in Week 17, one of those two teams is extremely likely to win the NFC East. Here’s why. . .
There are four possible outcomes over the Cowboys’ final two contests: WW, LW, WL, and LL. The first outcome—if the ‘Boys win both games—would win them the NFC East because, even if the Giants win both of their two remaining games, the Cowboys will trump them on a division tiebreaker. The last scenario would obviously knock Dallas out of the playoffs, as would the third.
If the Cowboys lose to New Orleans and beat Washington in Week 17, they can still get into the playoffs if the Giants lose at least one of their two remaining games. In that case, the Cowboys would either be tied with the Giants at 9-7 or be in a tie with both the Giants and Redskins at 9-7 (depending on the Redskins’ fate in Week 16). Per NFL.com, head-to-head and three-team tiebreaking rules within the division are as follows:
1.Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Since the Cowboys will have a better division record than the Giants if they win in Washington, they’d get in if the two teams end up tied. If all three teams have the same record, Dallas would also win that tiebreaker due to a superior record in common games.
Thus, the Cowboys’ chances of making the playoffs are 25 percent—the odds of winning both remaining games—plus the probability of losing in New Orleans, winning in Washington, and seeing the Giants lose at least one of their remaining games. Assuming the Giants have a 50 percent win probability, the odds of them losing just one more game (at a minimum) are 75 percent. Factoring that into the equation gives us the final probability of Dallas winning the NFC East—43.8 percent.
Not bad after a 3-5 start, huh?
In today's post about NFC East playoff scenarios, I did not mention the possibility that any of our division's teams might actually be able to clinch anything in Week 16. But we all mull this stuff over and look at all kinds of scenarios all day, just like you guys do. We even use the Playoff Machine. And as we do that, new information and possibilities come to light.
So I'm here to fill you in, with the help of ESPN Stats & Information, on the chances that the Washington Redskins or the New York Giants could clinch playoff spots this week.
The Giants clinch a playoff spot this week if they win and the Cowboys, Redskins, Vikings and Bears all lose. This is because, even though a Week 17 loss by the Giants would cost them the tiebreaker against the Cowboys-Redskins winner for the division title, they'd win tiebreakers over any combination of the Seahawks, Vikings and Bears in the wild-card race.
The Redskins clinch a playoff spot this week if they win and the Giants, Vikings and Bears all lose. That's because, even if they lost to the Cowboys in Week 17 and failed to win the division, they'd win wild-card tiebreakers over any combination of the Seahawks, Giants, Vikings and Bears.
One other note: According to NFL.com, via The Newark Star-Ledger, the Giants could actually be eliminated from playoff contention this week. Here it is.
The Giants are eliminated from playoff contention if they lose, the Redskins and Cowboys win and the Seahawks win or tie. This is because a Giants loss would mean they can win no more than nine games, whereas the Seahawks would have 10 (or nine and a tie) and the winner of the Week 17 Redskins-Cowboys game would be guaranteed to have at least 10.
So I'm here to fill you in, with the help of ESPN Stats & Information, on the chances that the Washington Redskins or the New York Giants could clinch playoff spots this week.
The Giants clinch a playoff spot this week if they win and the Cowboys, Redskins, Vikings and Bears all lose. This is because, even though a Week 17 loss by the Giants would cost them the tiebreaker against the Cowboys-Redskins winner for the division title, they'd win tiebreakers over any combination of the Seahawks, Vikings and Bears in the wild-card race.
The Redskins clinch a playoff spot this week if they win and the Giants, Vikings and Bears all lose. That's because, even if they lost to the Cowboys in Week 17 and failed to win the division, they'd win wild-card tiebreakers over any combination of the Seahawks, Giants, Vikings and Bears.
One other note: According to NFL.com, via The Newark Star-Ledger, the Giants could actually be eliminated from playoff contention this week. Here it is.
The Giants are eliminated from playoff contention if they lose, the Redskins and Cowboys win and the Seahawks win or tie. This is because a Giants loss would mean they can win no more than nine games, whereas the Seahawks would have 10 (or nine and a tie) and the winner of the Week 17 Redskins-Cowboys game would be guaranteed to have at least 10.
Nothing left to keep track of. Just win and we're in.
If we get in, we're the #4 seed and we'd host the #5 seed (likely Seattle) on Saturday night.
How I see the playoffs unfolding:
First round byes: Green Bay Packers (2) & Atlanta Falcons (1)
Wild Card Weekend
(5) Seattle Seahawks
@
(4) Dallas Cowboys
This isn't a matchup that I love, because Seattle is a big, strong, physical football team that can wear you down if you dont score. But they're also a lot less dangerous away from home. I think Romo and Dez are so zoned in, that they find a way to win.
(6) Chicago Bears
@
(3) San Francisco 49'ers
Divisional Round
(4) Dallas Cowboys
@
(1) Atlanta Falcons
This game is one we will be in until the end. But like the Saints, with the state of our defense this is a putrid matchup for us. Two big physical receivers who will demand safety support, and an athletic TE and a back who's dangerous as a receiver out of the backfield (Rogers). We'll need to score every possession basically.
(3) San Francisco 49'ers
@
(2) Green Bay Packers
NFC Title Game
(2) Green Bay Packers
@
(1) Atlanta Falcons
Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots
The good news is we'll beat the Redskins in easily the biggest game in the rivalry since those NFC title games during the 1980's which I don't give fuckall about since I was too young to give a shit. We also win a playoff game, ending the 1 playoff game in 15 years bs. And our core group of guys gets some valuable playoff experience to build on/learn from.
If we get in, we're the #4 seed and we'd host the #5 seed (likely Seattle) on Saturday night.
How I see the playoffs unfolding:
First round byes: Green Bay Packers (2) & Atlanta Falcons (1)
Wild Card Weekend
(5) Seattle Seahawks
@
(4) Dallas Cowboys
This isn't a matchup that I love, because Seattle is a big, strong, physical football team that can wear you down if you dont score. But they're also a lot less dangerous away from home. I think Romo and Dez are so zoned in, that they find a way to win.
(6) Chicago Bears
@
(3) San Francisco 49'ers
Divisional Round
(4) Dallas Cowboys
@
(1) Atlanta Falcons
This game is one we will be in until the end. But like the Saints, with the state of our defense this is a putrid matchup for us. Two big physical receivers who will demand safety support, and an athletic TE and a back who's dangerous as a receiver out of the backfield (Rogers). We'll need to score every possession basically.
(3) San Francisco 49'ers
@
(2) Green Bay Packers
NFC Title Game
(2) Green Bay Packers
@
(1) Atlanta Falcons
Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots
The good news is we'll beat the Redskins in easily the biggest game in the rivalry since those NFC title games during the 1980's which I don't give fuckall about since I was too young to give a shit. We also win a playoff game, ending the 1 playoff game in 15 years bs. And our core group of guys gets some valuable playoff experience to build on/learn from.
BangersandMash
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Put the blunt down or better yet give it to me.
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ShanaTan's Revenge Bowl
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You need to take your lips of Harbaugh's Johnson. Did you see the way they got absolutely bitch slapped the other night? See the 2nd half of that Pats game?
They look like a one and done team to me. Maybe they get to a 2nd game if they are lucky. They are definitely NOT a super bowl team though.
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fucking Volunteer homer troll
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They're just as consistent as any of the other top 5 nfc teams. All are fatally flawed but you have to pick one. Defense wins in January.
Bob Sacamano
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If seattle hosts the winner of the Cowboys/Redskins, I think we're going to lose.
It'll be just like in '05 when the Redskins won the division and played Seattle in the WC round.
It'll be just like in '05 when the Redskins won the division and played Seattle in the WC round.
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^ div winners get the home game bruh
Just like Seattle won the NFC west at 7-9 and hosted 11-5 New Orleans and beat them
Hmm
Just like Seattle won the NFC west at 7-9 and hosted 11-5 New Orleans and beat them
Hmm
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^^also the skins haven't won the dicision since 99.