ESPN Draft Blog....

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Potential and value abound in the trenches

By Steve Muench


There are 13 defensive linemen among Scouts Inc.'s top 32 overall prospects, and when you throw in four offensive tackles with first-round grades it's pretty clear the men in the trenches will shine on Day 1 of the NFL draft.

That doesn't mean teams looking for help along the line of scrimmage are out of luck further down the line, though. Here's my take on three offensive and three defensive linemen who project as mid-round picks and could develop into valuable contributors in the right situation.


Offensive Line

Auburn OT Lee Ziemba (Grade: 71)
Ziemba isn't fluid enough to protect a quarterback's blindside in the NFL and he's not a great fit at guard, either. He struggled to sink his hips and get under defensive tackles when he lined up there at the Senior Bowl. However, he projects as a late-third or early-fourth round pick because is he has the tools to develop into an effective starter at right tackle. Ziemba plays with an edge and can drive defenders off the ball when he plays with good pad level.

The New England Patriots need to address its aging offensive line and Ziemba would bring good value in the middle rounds as a backup and potential replacement for RT Sebastian Vollmer, who has started on the left side as well and could move their permanently when 33-year-old Matt Lightmoves on.


Central Florida OT Jah Reid (58)
Reid isn't a mauler in the running game and at times gives more ground in pass protection than you'd expect from a 325-pounder. However, left tackles are hard to find, especially in the middle rounds and Reid is quick, agile and long enough to hold up in pass protection on the blind side if he can learn to sink his hips and play with better balance.

He projects somewhere in the early part of the fifth round, where the Minnesota Vikings could be a good fit. Vikings LOT Bryant McKinnie is a better fit on the right than the left and ROT Phil Loadholt is better suited to play guard, and while they are an adequate tackle tandem for now the entire line could perhaps be improved by adding a left tackle like Reid in the fifth.


Michigan G Steve Schilling (58)
Schilling struggled to show power defensive linemen at the Senior Bowl, reaffirming what we saw on film, so he's not a great fit for an offense that features a power runnin game. However, he has the potential to develop into a starter in a zone blocking scheme. Schilling's footwork is sound, he moves well laterally and he excels at covering defenders at the first and second levels.

The Green Bay Packers have the last pick in the fourth round and taking Schilling there is a possibility. Packers LG Daryn Colledge is scheduled to become a free agent and the Packers should be looking to upgrade the offensive line after finishing 24th in rushing yards per game in 2010. Schilling is capable of pushing for early playing time in Green Bay's zone heavy scheme.


Defensive line

Pittsburgh DE Greg Romeus (69)
The 2010 season couldn't have gone much worse for Romeus. First, he missed much of the preseason with back spasms and decided to undergo back surgery following the season opener against Utah. Romeus then tore his left ACL in his first game back from the surgery, and he's not expected to be ready to work out at the upcoming NFL combine.

Still, he showed enough on his 2009 film to warrant consideration late in the third or early in the fourth if his back and knee check out. He is big, quick and strong enough to push for a starting left end job in a base four-man front early in his career. The Cleveland Browns are expected to switch to a 4-3 scheme under new defensive coordinator Dick Jauron and they need bodies up front to make it a successful transition. If he's healthy, Romeus would give Cleveland some much needed depth and possibly a future starter.


Arizona State DT/DE Lawrence Guy (61)
Guy doesn't have the closing speed to develop into a top-tier pass rusher and at 6-foot-5 he has a hard time staying low enough to anchor against double teams. However, he has the frame, toughness and enough initial quickness to provide depth at defensive tackle in a base four-man front, and he may be a better fit at defensive end in a three-man front because his inability to stay low won't be as much of a concern working against taller tackles.

The Baltimore Ravens drafted Arthur Jones in the fifth round last year but should be in the market for a defensive end once again. Cory Redding turns 31 this season, 2009 second-round Paul Kruger hasn't progressed as expected and Jones appeared in just two games last year. Adding Guy late in the fourth would add depth and future competition for the starting job alongside Haloti Ngata.


Mississippi DT Jerrell Powe (57)
Powe doesn't project as a productive interior pass rusher and he tends to wear down over the course of a game, so the team that drafts him will have to limit his role or improve his conditioning. Powe also needs to play with better pad level and improve his ability to get off blocks, but he has the quick first step, low center of gravity (6-foot-2) and bulk (320 pounds) teams covet at nose tackle. He rarely gives ground in one-on-one situations and can anchor against double teams when he stays low.

The Washington redskins have to improve a run defense that finished 26th in the league in yards per game, and even if Albert Haynesworth remains in Washington he can't be counted on at nose tackle after the way he played in 2010. Drafting Powe in the fifth round would bring some youth and competition to a group that will likely be bolstered with free-agent signings as well.

 

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Back-seven help available in mid rounds

By Kevin Weidl


Linebackers

Washington OLB Mason Foster
Foster has good size (6-foot-1, 241 pounds) and strength and is a solid overall tackler. His 163 total stops in 2010 ranked second in the FBS and are a testament to his instincts and ability to read his keys. Foster has good range, wraps up well and shows some snap on occasion against the run, and he can also hold up on third down. He times pressures well, can hold up in underneath zone coverage and also shows the ability to stay with running backs in man coverage.

A team like the Detroit Lions, whose linebackers struggled against the run, would do well to pluck Foster in the third round and plug him in on the weak side. He can make plays when allowed to run to the ball and is also a very good special teams contributor.


Central Florida OLB Bruce Miller
Miller (6-1, 259) played with his hand down at UCF but his best fit in the NFL appears to be at outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. His athleticism was better than expected during film study and Miller is a speed-to-power rusher with a quick first step and the active hands to keep blockers off his frame. He can shave the corner and has a nonstop motor, and his 35.5 career sacks are the most for any FBS player who suited up in 2010.

Miller is athletic enough to drop into zone coverage, and his character and work ethic are impressive as well. The Washington Redskins finished with only 29 sacks last season and need a pass rusher to complement Brian Orakpo, making Miller an intriguing option should he be available in the fifth round.


West Virginia OLB J.T. Thomas
He's an undersized prospect (6-1, 231) but if Thomas is covered up and allowed to flow to the ball he shows excellent lateral quickness and sideline-to-sideline range. He will have some problems in phone-booth situations against bigger offensive linemen, but when given room to run Thomas reads plays quickly and get to the ball carrier in a hurry.

He also shows tremendous range in zone coverage and can stick with running backs and tight ends in man coverage. Cover 2 teams like the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers could be good fits in the fourth or fifth round. Thomas would bring good depth and solid sub-package contributions behind Lance Briggs in Chicago, and he is just the kind of fast, active linebacker Tampa prefers.


Defensive backs

North Carolina CB Kendric Burney
Burney was part of the NCAA investigations that hung over the North Carolina program in 2010 and played only six games, and when he was on the field Burney wasn't himself. He was often out of position and just did not seem to be all there mentally.

However, he looked better during Senior Bowl week, showing good short-area burst, anticipating routes well and displaying tremendous ball skills for a 5-9, 181-pounder. Burney was a mid-second round prospect entering the season and fell to the late third, but he is building momentum and has the look of a good value for a Cover 2 team like Tampa Bay in the third round.


Nebraska DB Eric Hagg
Hagg's versatility is perhaps his greatest strength. He has enough size (6-1, 204) and tackling skills to line up near the box, the ball skills (five INTs in 2010) to play the point in coverage and the athleticism to match up with slot receivers in man coverage.

Hagg is smart and maintains solid position, and what he lacks in explosiveness and top-end speed he makes up with instincts and athleticism. His ability to contribute and make plays in third-down sub packages would be a big help for the Atlanta Falcons, who could bolster a struggling pass defense by adding Hagg in the fourth or fifth round.


Buffalo CB Josh Thomas
Thomas (5-10, 196) is strong and athletic, showing the change-of-direction skills to mirror receivers on the outside and the physical presence to use his hands to disrupt routes at the line of scrimmage. He didn't make a lot of big plays in coverage but during Shrine Game week flashed the ability to high-point the ball and bring it in.

Thomas also plays an aggressive, downhill style in run support and will deliver shots when he gets a chance. He could fit nicely with the Pittsburgh Steelers, who saw their coverage issues exposed in the Super Bowl and have two fifth-round picks.

 

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Combine could boost three top prospects

By Kevin Weidl


The NFL combine is just one component of the evaluation process for prospects, and a player's college game tape is certainly the biggest piece of the puzzle. However, there is value in the combine because it serves as a good cross-check for film study.

Scouts want to make sure a player's times and tests match up with what they've seen on film and if they don't then it's time for another hard look at the tape. And the interview process and medical exams in Indianapolis are just as important as the workouts, especially given the NFL's recent focus on player safety and off-field issues.

Taking all that into consideration, here's a look at three highly-rated prospects I've identified who can use the combine to supplement impressive game film and solidify their stock.


North Carolina DE/OLB Robert Quinn (Scouts Inc. grade: 95)
Quinn was declared permanently ineligible after receiving impermissible benefits from agents, and because he's an underclassman that means he has only two years of film. However, his 2009 film, when he amassed 19 tackles for loss and 11 sacks, shows a player with all kinds of potential thanks to an elite first step and impressive quickness and athleticism off the edge.

The combine will be scouts' first chance to see him live in any capacity since 2009 so confirming his fluidity and agility in space will be important, especially if his lack of ideal size (6-foot-4½, 254) causes him to transition to outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme.

Quinn will also face questions during the interview process about the events that led to his ineligibility, and if he can put any character concerns to rest he will obviously help himself. Finally, Quinn was diagnosed with a brain tumor as a senior in high school, and while nothing major came from the diagnosis you can bet the league's focus on head injuries will have doctors looking into that.

Pass-rushers carry a lot of value in the draft and if the off-field issues check out and Quinn's workouts are in line with his game tape he will begin locking down a spot in the top half of the first round.


USC OT Tyron Smith (93)
Smith played right tackle for two years at USC and shows natural feet and freakish athleticism on film, but he played the 2010 season at around 290 pounds so teams will want to see if he can add some bulk to his frame without sacrificing athletic ability.

We're hearing that Smith will be at or above 300 pounds at the combine and his arms are reportedly nearly 36 inches long, so the weigh-in could be the first step in a big week for him. Smith has a very good build and his athleticism should shine during workouts. I expect good 40 times and he should test well in agility drills, which alongside his film would give Smith a good chance to move into the top 15 overall.


Maryland WR Torrey Smith (88)
Smith is expected to wow scouts during workouts. His big-play skills and ability to get behind the defense are evident on film, and while he's listed at 6-foot and 202 pounds he had a much bigger physical presence when I saw him in person at a recent skills competition. His 40-yard dash time is expected to be in the low 4.4-second range and Smith will almost certainly be among the fastest receivers on the field in Indy.

Smith is also a very mature prospect who has overcome a tough upbringing and grew up early while taking on a lot of responsibility for younger siblings, so the interview process will also be a plus for him. However, his film does raise some concerns about unpolished routes and somewhat inconsistent hands so it will be important for him to show improvement in those areas. If he does, Smith could move from the early second round into the back half of the first.

 

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What does Cam Newton stand to gain?

By Steve Muench


Auburn QB Cam Newton has announced his intention to fully participate in the NFL draft combine, and his decision to throw for scouts in Indianapolis should pay off.

Newton turned in a strong performance in a workout for the media earlier this month, and there's no reason to think he can't do the same at the combine. He has the arm strength to make throws that most other quarterbacks can't and has shown that he can handle high-pressure situations, so there's little reason to believe he'll wilt under the spotlight.

One area in which Newton can help himself is his footwork. It appeared crisper at the media workout than on his game video, and scouts will want to see how he's progressing in that area as he begins the transition from a spread-option scheme to a pro-style offense.

However, it's important not to put too much stock in how well Newton throws. Combine workouts will showcase his strengths without testing his weaknesses. The two biggest issues surrounding Newton are the offense he played in at Auburn and concerns about his character. Throwing to receivers against air won't answer questions about either.

Teams will get a much better feel for Newton's football intelligence and what type of a young man he is during interviews and during whiteboard sessions when they can quiz him on the X's and O's aspect of pro offenses. Those two areas will be much more important for Newton than any of the workout drills in which he participates.


Small-school watch

Newton and other top prospects are getting the headlines and attention right now, but don't be surprised to see some small-school players make a splash once workouts begin. Here are three under-the-radar prospects I'll have my eye on.


Abilene Christian WR Edmund Gates (Grade: 63)
Gates faced a lower level of competition in college, comes with character baggage, and didn't play football for three years after high school, so there are plenty of red flags in his current evaluation.

Speed is the reason Gates makes this list, and assuming a hamstring injury suffered at the Senior Bowl is healed, he is expected to run one of the fastest 40-yard dash times among all prospects. Interviews and physicals will be important, and Gates needs to polish his route-running skills, but assuming he performs well in all areas at the combine, he should cement his status as an early Day 3 pick.


Mount Union WR Cecil Shorts (59)
Shorts tweaked his hamstring during practice leading up to the East-West Shrine Game, and although he is expected to run this week, he must prove he is healthy. On a more positive note, questions about his ability to compete at the NFL level appear to fuel his competitiveness, and he dampened concerns about playing at the Division II level with two strong practices in Orlando.

Shorts' hands are inconsistent, so he needs to catch the ball well during position-specific drills. However, he flashes excellent speed on film, and turning in a sub-4.5 time in the 40 will help solidify his early-fifth-round grade and could even move him into the late fourth round.


California (Pa.) QB Josh Portis (30)
Portis played at both Florida and Maryland before transferring to Division II California, and it's easy to see why he was at those schools. There's a lot to like about his frame, arm strength and mobility, and he could run a sub-4.7 time in the 40.

However, Portis will have to make a strong impression during interviews to get drafted for two reasons. First, the bulk of his production came against inferior competition, and he is a better thrower than quarterback at this point. Portis will have to answer questions about his ability to read the more complex defenses he'll see in the NFL. Secondly, and more importantly, the two transfers raise substantial concerns about his character and maturity, and Portis must begin putting those to rest.

 

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Jets thinking pass-rusher at No. 30?

On Tuesday, Rich Cimini of ESPNNewYork.com continued his offseason tour of the New York Jets' roster, this time focusing on the outside linebackers. In Rex Ryan's defensive system, as with other teams that run a lot of 3-4 looks, the OLBs are the source of the edge pass-rushing pressure.

Cimini notes that veteran Jason Taylor will not be back with the team next season, and may, in fact, retire. His opinion is that the team will be fine with Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas as the primary options at the two OLB slots, but that it may be time to use a high draft pick on a player to develop into the role, possibly as early as their first-rounder at No. 30 overall. Some collegiate defensive ends take to the position with ease while others take time to learn the additional responsibilities, so drafting someone with 2012 in mind would be a smart decision, and any help they can provide in 2011 would be a bonus.

Neither of our draft experts picked a DE/OLB prospect for the Jets in their most recent mock drafts, but rather other positions of need on D:

- Tim Kavanagh

--

Mel Kiper, Jr.
Safety Rahim Moore is my pick

"I'm split between my own gut and sources on what the Jets could do here. They have to improve the defensive line, but it's also a deep draft at those positions. Moore represents great value at a need position, the top safety in the draft and a guy who can fly all over the field to intercept passes for coach Rex Ryan, who knows how to get pressure and create forced throws."

--

Todd McShay
DT Phil Taylor as Jenkins' heir

"The Jets need a reliable presence in the middle of their 3-4 defense, and veteran NT Kris Jenkins has played just seven games combined in the past two seasons. Taylor has the size to anchor the middle of that three-man front and surprisingly good feet for a 350-pound prospect."

 

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Newton and the Panthers

Though the NFL draft is still over two months away, the debate over who the Carolina Panthers should take No. 1 overall has raged since Andrew Luck announced that he'd be returning to Stanford. Later this week, prospects will be measured, tested and interviewed at the draft combine in Indianapolis, and to get the week started off properly, NFL.com analyst Gil Brandt -- former Dallas Cowboys director of player personnel -- indicated that Newton should be that pick.

"It would shock me... if he's not the first player picked," Brandt said Monday, per the Star-Telegram. "If I was drafting and I had Carolina's [No. 1] pick, I'd feel really good about who I was getting as far as ability."

To paint a more complete picture of the situation, here are ESPN NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas on how a certain aspect of the combine process will affect the decision for Carolina, his AFC West counterpart Bill Williamson on the Denver Broncos' role as the team with the No. 2 overall pick and Steve Muench of ESPN's Scouts, Inc. on the most important thing Newton needs to show this week:

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Pat Yasinskas
Panthers wary of players with character issues

"After the Rae Carruth disaster, [Panthers owner Jerry] Richardson made it very clear to the people that make the football decisions that he doesn't want to take chances on anyone with serious character issues in their background. ... Newton will be taken in the first round, but he might determine the location during his interviews. His most important one could be with Carolina general manager Marty Hurney. If Newton can convince Hurney there are no problems, he could be at the top of Carolina's board. If Hurney believes a potential remains for problems, Newton will be off Carolina's board."

--

Bill Williamson
Broncos would have pick of defensive litter

"If the Panthers do pick Newton, it would basically open the entire draft to Denver. The Broncos are fully expected to take a defensive player. So, if Newton goes to Carolina, the Broncos will be guaranteed of getting their first choice."

--

Insider NFL Draft Blog
We know he can throw

"The two biggest issues surrounding Newton are the offense he played in at Auburn and concerns about his character, and throwing to receivers against air doesn't answer questions about either. Teams will get a much better feel for his football intelligence and what type of a young man he is during interviews and during whiteboard sessions when they can quiz him on the X-and-O aspect of pro offenses. Those two areas will be much more important for Newton than any of the workout drills he takes part in."

--

UPDATE: Cam Newton may have raised some eyebrows with a pair of comments on Tuesday.

First, to Peter King of Sports Illustrated: "I see myself not only as a football player, but an entertainer and icon."

Second, to Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! Sports, regarding his lack of experience at the NCAA level: "Not to sound arrogant but what I did in one year others couldn't do in their entire collegiate careers."

Yikes.

 

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How to view the 2011 running back class

By Todd McShay


My preparations for the NFL combine included breaking down the 2011 running back class, and based on my research teams might face some difficult decisions in the upcoming draft.

Alabama's Mark Ingram is the only 2011 prospect currently carrying a first-round grade, and four others -- Ryan Williams, Mikel Leshoure, Daniel Thomas, Kendall Hunter -- could come off the board in the second round. Beyond that, though, NFL teams might be better served to pass on the many midround prospects in the class.

If the 2010 NFL season is any indication, teams are better off addressing running back needs by drafting one in the first two rounds or by waiting for a seventh-rounder or a free-agent signing. On one hand, 10 of the NFL's top 18 rushers from last season were drafted in the first two rounds, including six in the first round.

However, six of the top 18 were seventh-round picks or rookie free agents, so the odds of finding a contributor are just as good late.

The short shelf life of NFL running backs is yet another argument against spending a high pick on the position. Among the top 18 rushers form last season, 17 were drafted in a six-year span from 2004-09, and only seven of those were drafted before 2008.

Not a single one of the 15 backs drafted in 2010 cracked the top 18 (rookie free agent LeGarrette Blount finished 17th), and if recent results are any indicator, they don't have much time to move into the top tier.

It seems clear that running back is no longer one of the positions at which NFL rookies can make a significant impact. Many factors contribute to that, including the fact that more teams employ a running back-by-committee approach, along with the increased focus on the passing game. No matter the reasons, teams should approach this year's class warily because history says they might not get a significant boost from 2011 rookies.


2008 looking golden

On a more positive note, the 2008 class has become the gold standard for recent running back hauls. The '08 group boasts eight of the top 16 rushers from 2010, all of whom have become significant contributors for the teams that drafted or signed them.

Here's a look at how those eight players fared this past NFL season.

Darren McFadden, Oakland (1st round, 4th overall): 1,157 yards, 7 TD
Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh (1st round, 23rd overall): 1,273 yards, 13 TD
Chris Johnson, Tennessee (1st round, 24th overall): 1,326 yards, 11 TD
Matt Forte, Chicago (2nd round, 44th overall): 1,069 yards, 6 TD
Ray Rice, Baltimore (2nd round, 55th overall): 1,220 yards, 5 TD
Jamaal Charles (3rd round, 73rd overall): 1,467 yards, 5 TD
Peyton Hillis (7th round, 227th overall): 1,177 yards, 11 TD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, New England (rookie free agent): 1,008 yards, 13 TD

 

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Three defensive backs hurt by combine

By Kevin Weidl


We've talked a lot this week about how Cam Newton likely hurt his stock with his underwhelming performance, but there are some other big-name prospects out there who need to do a little damage control after failing to impress scouts in Indianapolis.

Here are the five players who could be slipping the most after the combine.

UCLA OLB Akeem Ayers
Ayers has the size (6-foot-2½, 254 pounds) to play with his hand down but is likely a better fit at outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme, so failing to show elite speed and athleticism in Indianapolis hurts him a bit. He shows good potential with his ability to bend the edge and convert speed to power as a pass-rusher and is hanging on to a first-round grade, but we were looking for Ayers to join the elite tier of early first-round picks and he failed to do so.

Oklahoma DE/OLB Jeremy Beal
Beal was the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year in 2010 but he could have trouble finding a role in the NFL. He is undersized (6-2¼, 262) for a traditional end and does not show the athleticism to be a force on the outside in a 3-4 defense.

Beal ran the 40-yard dash in the 5.1-second range and lacked explosiveness and agility during drills, dropping him into no-man's-land as a ‘tweener who is limited athletically and doesn't have the size to anchor effectively. All of that has likely dropped him out of the second round and possibly as far as early Day 3.

North Carolina CB Kendric Burney
Burney checked in at just 5-9⅜ and 196 pounds and ran the 40 in the 4.7 range, and that lack of size and speed are two big strikes against him. He will have to be protected in any scheme (likely a Cover 2-heavy defense) and could end up being a sub-package reserve. However, Burney does show the balls skills and instincts to be productive in the right situation, so while he could be dropping a bit he could contribute some as a late third- or early fourth-round pick.

Florida S Ahmad Black
Black is similar to Burney in that he lacks size (5-9½, 184) and speed (4.7s) but shows some instincts and ball skills. The problem for Black is that he's undersized for a safety and not fast enough for a corner, so teams might not know what to do with him. He could end up in the later rounds before all is said and done.

West Virginia S Robert Sands
Sands tested well (mid-4.5s in the 40, 10-foot-8 broad jump) and has impressive size (6-4⅜, 217), but he was exposed during position drills at the combine. He is a high-cut athlete who struggled to open his hips and showed choppy footwork, and despite showing decent production at times during his career (5 INTs in 2009) Sands struggled to catch the ball in Indy. He will be limited at the next level and questions about his ability to cover the deep half will make him an in-the-box type in the NFL and possibly a Day 3 pick.

 

[Cr122]

I still think Ayers will be fine, but hey.

 

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Lockout would set 2011 rookies back

By Kevin Weidl


The NFL Players Association and league owners have extended the deadline for a new collective bargaining agreement to March 11 and there is some hope the extra negotiating time will lead to a new deal, but there are still plenty of unknowns and the owners locking out the players is still a possibility.

So how would a lockout affect the 2011 draft? First, teams would be restricted to pick-for-pick trades on draft weekend because active players would not be eligible to change teams. That could affect the amount of wheeling and dealing we see leading up to and during the draft.

The greater impact will be felt by 2011 rookies, though. Draft picks would be left without contracts until a resolution -- which could include a rookie wage scale that limits their earnings potential -- and because team facilities would be closed to players there would be no rookie camps, minicamps or OTAs, and possibly shortened training camps.

That would have major ramifications because rookies count on that time to learn new systems and verbiage, acclimate to the speed and physicality of the game, figure out their roles, mesh with new teammates and acclimate to new surroundings.

Take QBs Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton, for instance. Both played in spread offenses in college -- Newton in a run-first scheme -- and will need a lot of time to learn pro-style pre-snap reads and passing progressions, reacting to faster, more complex defenses and fitting the ball into smaller passing windows.

Not to mention the work they need on the mechanics of doing all those things while dropping from under center. Gabbert and Newton already face a steep learning curve if they are to contribute and succeed as rookies, and an extended lockout would make it almost impossible for any team drafting them to get them ready to play any meaningful role.

All 2011 rookies will be forced to work out on their own in the event of a lockout and then scramble to get caught up in training camp. It's a different situation than high-profile rookies who participate in other offseason activities but then hold out during training game. Those players have spent time with the coaching staff, teammates and have been learning the playbook, all things that will be off-limits to this year's rookie class if the players are locked out.

That lack of acclimation would also be detrimental to offensive linemen trying to learn blocking schemes and protection calls; wide receivers looking to pick up a new verbiage, get used to new route trees and develop timing with quarterbacks; and linebackers and defensive backs trying to recognize and react to much more complex offensive scheme than they saw in college.

Rookies will be struggling to catch up mentally, and anyone will tell you that a smarter player is a faster player. Split-second hesitation because of a lack of preparation could lead to costly mistakes once they do get on the field.

Things would be even more uncertain for rookie free agents, who typically field calls and offers from teams as soon as the draft is over. Teams will not be permitted to contact those players enter into any contracts during a lockout, and the league has made it clear to teams that anyone trying to circumvent that ban will be penalized severely.

One scout told me that in the event of a lockout teams will have more time to re-stack their boards following the draft in order to make certain undrafted players priorities, then unleash something like a scene from the movie "Boiler Room" when a new CBA is in place, with scouts and front office personnel in a room making a frenzy of phone calls to lock in their priority free agents and shore up their training camp rosters.

And don't forget, like many other team employees those scouts and other talent evaluators will be taking pay cuts in the event of a lockout as well.

The end result is that a lockout would all but guarantee no 2011 rookie would hit the ground running and make a significant impact the way St. Louis Rams QB Sam Bradford, Detroit Lions DT Ndamukong Suh or Philadelphia Eagles S Nate Allen did during the 2010 season.

Much has been made of the business impact a lockout and a new CBA will have on the league as a whole, but rookies will pay a price, too, before they even become full-fledged NFL players.

 

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Accuracy an issue for Cam Newton

By Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.


Cam Newton's performance at his pro day will neither send his stock soaring nor plummeting. But after he failed to impress with his passing at the NFL combine, there are some things to shore up, and Newton does want to make a positive impression on the coaches and scouts in attendance.

He wants to show he's been working hard with QB coach George Whitfield Jr., that he's a coachable player who is making progress in terms of mechanics and becoming more consistent overall.

Newton's rare combination of size and agility is apparent to anyone who watched Auburn play in 2010, and it's clear that he has a quick release and that the ball jumps off his hand, but there are a few things we'll be looking for during his scripted passing session.

First, after playing in a run-heavy spread scheme in college, is Newton showing more urgency in his drops and getting set to throw more quickly? And is he throwing with better anticipation and getting the ball out on time, especially on seam routes, outs and comebacks?

Finally, are Newton's mechanics improving? Is he stepping to his target and shifting his weight from back to front? And is his overall accuracy improving along with his mechanics?

The pro day is just the first test Newton needs to pass, though. The second, and far more important, is how he performs during meetings with teams that come to Auburn to work him out and interview him or fly him to their facilities for intensive film/whiteboard work and general grilling on intangibles and character issues.

Teams will keep the information they gather in those interviews close to the vest, but needless to say Newton has to perform well in those situations to convince teams he can be trusted as the face of a franchise. How he handles the interview process will determine his ultimate draft position.

Here's a look at the eight teams drafting in the top 12 that we currently identify as having some interest in a quarterback and where they will be picking. All could be in play for Newton at this point.

1. Carolina Panthers
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Arizona Cardinals
7. San Francisco 49ers
8. Tennessee Titans
10. Washington Redskins
12. Minnesota Vikings


Quarterback depth

Newton is getting most of the attention at this point, but there is plenty of talent to go around in this year's draft class. There has been an average of 4.6 quarterbacks taken in the first three rounds of the past three drafts, but we could see as many as eight off the board before Day 2 is over this year.

Here are the eight listed in order of their draft grade and when they are scheduled for pro day workouts.

1. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri (March 17)
2. Newton (March 8)
3. Jake Locker, Washington (March 30)
4. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas (March 8)
5. Andy Dalton, TCU (March 11)
6. Christian Ponder, Florida State (March 16)
7. Ricky Stanzi, Iowa (March 21)
8. Colin Kaepernick, Nevada (March 22)

 

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Mark Ingram shows well in Tuscaloosa

By Todd McShay


Alabama's pro day workout took place Wednesday in Tuscaloosa, and first-round prospects RB Mark Ingram and DT Marcell Dareus were obviously the headliners.


Ingram speeds up

A scout in attendance told me he clocked Ingram at 4.48 seconds in the 40-yard dash and said one stopwatch had him at 4.43, which is a big improvement over the 4.62 he ran last week at the NFL combine. That time could help him in the eyes of some scouts and teams, but for the most part, it won't affect his draft stock much.

Even with the slower-than-expected time at the combine, Ingram remained the clear-cut No. 1 running back on our board. He is a very tough runner who gets stronger as games wear on, he shows the burst to turn the corner on film, his vision and patience are excellent, and he runs with great balance. Those things are enough to make him worthy of a mid-to-late first-round pick regardless of his 40 time.


Dareus solidifying his standing

A strong showing at the combine helped Dareus cement his status as an elite prospect, and he did nothing to hurt himself Wednesday. He stood on most of his numbers from Indianapolis but did take part in the broad jump after skipping it at the combine, posting an 8-foot-10 jump.

That's one inch better than the average for defensive tackles at the past three combines, but keep in mind that Dareus weighed in at 318 pounds, while the three-year average at his position is 305. That shows good explosiveness.

I've heard a lot of talk lately about Carolina considering Dareus with the No. 1 overall pick, and new Panthers coach Ron Rivera was in attendance after watching Nick Fairley and Cam Newton on Tuesday at Auburn.

Denver holds the No. 2 pick and has needs along the defensive line, making the Broncos another possible destination for Dareus, who has the versatility to play the 5-technique (DE) in a 3-4 scheme but is best suited as a 4-3 tackle.

It just so happens that Denver is moving to a 4-3 scheme under new head coach John Fox and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, and executive vice president of football operations John Elway was in Alabama to get an up-close look at Dareus.

The Broncos or any other team with a need at defensive tackle would do well to bring in a player with the kind of speed, size, quick hands/feet and interior pass-rush skills Dareus brings to the table.


Jones, McElroy interested spectators

WR Julio Jones was on crutches after undergoing surgery Saturday for a stress fracture in his left foot and won't work out for scouts again before the draft. He had an impressive combine, though, and Michael Crabtree in 2009 proved that teams are willing to take a chance in the first round on wide receivers in Jones' situation. Jones remains in the mid-first-round area on our board despite the injury.

As for QB Greg McElroy, a broken hand is still preventing him from throwing. McElroy hopes to begin throwing next week and is shooting for an April 5 workout in Tuscaloosa, where he will be looking to show the physical tools to complement his toughness, leadership and smarts, and lock down a spot in the later rounds.

 

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Film confirms standing for pair of DEs

By Kevin Weidl


We've entered the time of year when we at Scouts Inc. gather our notes from postseason events (all-star games, NFL combine) and go back to the film to update our prospect evaluations.

Some players are rising and others are falling, and a pair of defensive ends we've been high on since the middle of the college season are jumping out on film and solidifying their high grades.


Brooks Reed, Arizona

We got an up-close look at Reed during Senior Bowl week, when he was impressive, and during my film study of Arizona's games against Oregon State and Iowa, neither team appeared to have an answer for him.

Reed's quick-twitch explosiveness off the edge stands out immediately. He gets off the ball quickly, bends the edge well and can translate speed to power, and he has very good hands to keep blockers off his frame. Reed also runs the tight loop on stunts very well, and his motor never stops running.

Calling Reed a poor man's Clay Matthews would not be out of line given the skills above and Reed's ability to close on the quarterback. He's a bit bigger (6-foot-2½, 263 pounds) than Matthews and not quite as nimble, but Reed does have above-average athleticism for his size and can drop into coverage at times.

We've had Reed in the second-round area since September, and he's shown enough during the pre-draft process and during film study to make himself worthy of a top-40 overall pick.


Jabaal Sheard, Pittsburgh

Sheard showed well at the combine, and after reviewing the tape of Sheard's performances against Rutgers and Miami, he's not far behind Reed. He was a tone-setter for the Panthers and showed toughness against Rutgers, recording two sacks and a forced fumble despite a left elbow injury that essentially made him a one-armed player.

Sheard has great size (6-2⅞, 264), impressive strength and short-area power, and like Reed, he brings it on every play. He has an above-average first step for his size, effective inside and outside swim moves and stays low to help generate the power to rock offensive tackles back with his bull rush.

Finally, Sheard is athletic enough to line up as a 3-4 outside linebacker and shows the ability to stack the edge against the run, shock and shed blockers and redirect to the ball. There are minor character concerns stemming from an off-campus fight during the summer of 2010, but all indications are that Sheard was coming to the aid of a teammate who was in trouble, and scouts I've talked to say he has interviewed well.

Overall, Sheard is locking down a spot in the middle of the second round.


Big names at Wisconsin pro day

Wisconsin held its pro day workout on Wednesday, and Packers GM Ted Thompson and coach Mike McCarthy, Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz and offensive line coach Mike Tice, and Steelers coach Mike Tomlin were among the NFL bigwigs in attendance to see some highly rated prospects show their wares.

Here's how some of the top Badgers looked:

DE J.J. Watt -- He stood on his numbers from the combine but showed impressive athleticism and quick feet for a 290-pounder during drills. Watt even took part in linebacker drills, and although he is somewhat limited in space, he's still above average for his size. The pre-draft process could not be going much better for Watt, who is solidly in the top 15 overall.

OT Gabe Carimi -- He also stood on most of his combine numbers but did turn his ankle, the same one he injured during Senior Bowl week, while running the short shuttle. That raises some concerns for a player who was nicked up throughout his career, but Carimi's overall skills and the fact that he is an NFL-ready right tackle still make him a first-rounder.

OG John Moffitt -- Moffitt didn't look all that athletic and is not the kind of player who will light it up in workout situations, but he is very strong and very productive on film. He has the tools to become a solid starter at the next level, and his game tape could be enough to get him into the third round.

TE Lance Kendricks -- He bounced back from a disappointing combine, running the 40-yard dash in the 4.5-second range and improving his vertical jump to 38.5 inches. Showing that explosiveness is important for an undersized (6-2⅞, 243) tight end who will be a pass-catching H-back at the next level. We grade Kendricks on the fringe of the third round, and this workout could help him hold on to a spot on Day 2.

RB John Clay -- Clay is down to 233 pounds after playing the season at nearly 250 but still ran the 40 in 4.7-second range. He also had problems catching the ball during drills, but to be fair, that won't be his calling card at the next level. Clay will be a short-yardage specialist in the NFL and won't bring much on third down, and his limited contributions will keep him in the late-fourth or early-fifth round area.

 

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Pro day notebook

We've already broken down the performances by big names during showcases at Auburn, Alabama and Wisconsin, but there are plenty of other results to examine. Here's our take on some noteworthy recent pro days:

Amukamara leads top Nebraska prospects (March 10)

CB Prince Amukamara stood on his phenomenal combine numbers -- 4.38 seconds in the 40-yard dash, 10-foot-8 broad jump, 38-inch vertical jump, 4.08-second short shuttle -- but looked very good in drills.

Amukamara was fluid, showed quick feet and changed directions well, and his closing burst is very good. He has great size (6-0⅝, 205 pounds), recovers well when caught off balance and is a sound tackler. Amukamara is not far behind No. 1 CB Patrick Peterson and both are likely top-10 picks.

Nickelback Eric Hagg improved his 40 time (4.56) and vertical jump (38½), and that should help his case as a versatile defensive back who can play safety or line up in man coverage against slot receivers. Throw in his awareness, ball skills and potential to contribute on special teams and Hagg looks like a good value pick in the fourth round.

WR Niles Paul ran in the mid 4.4s and improved his vertical to 36 inches, and a 6-0⅞ and 224 pounds he is a strong runner after the catch. However, tight hips and untimely drops hurt his stock and he doesn't show great body control on passes outside his frame. He has some value in the return game but also faces some character questions that could push him into Day 3.

Finally, RB Roy Helu kept his good combine numbers -- 4.40 in the 40, 9-11 broad, 36.5 vertical -- and took part in position drills, catching the ball well out of the backfield. Helu remains in the late-fourth or early-fifth round.

Matthews fails to impress at Oregon (March 10)

Oregon LB Casey Matthews turned in an underwhelming performance, clocking in the high 4.7 range in the 40, broad-jumping 9-5, and timing 4.15 in the short shuttle and 7.08 in the three-cone drill.

Matthews is a better football player than athlete, showing good instincts and recognition skills and playing with a relentless motor, but he has limited range and will have to make his mark on special teams early in his career. His workout numbers could scare enough teams to drop him to Day 3.

Things didn't go any better for WR Jeff Maehl, who ran in the mid 4.6 range and did not show the good hands most expected to see. Maehl checks in at just 6-0⅞ and 189 pounds and does not show much burst out of breaks, making him a late-round or free-agent prospect.

Up and down day at Clemson (March 10)

Scouts did not get a look at DE Da'Quan Bowers -- who is still recovering from knee surgery -- during Clemson's pro day workout but there were other prospects of note taking part.

Questionable overall range is one of the reasons S DeAndre McDaniel has seen his stock drop since the beginning of the season, and McDaniel did little to help his cause with times of 4.76 and 4.70 in the 40. McDaniel is also tight in the hips and does not always tackle with authority, and after entering the college season with a second-round grade he could be in danger of falling out of the third round.

Things went much better for DT Jarvis Jenkins, who ran the 40 in the low 5.0 range at 310 pounds. Jenkins moved well and showed good footwork during drills, and while some scouts we've talked to are a little higher on him we have Jenkins solidly in the middle of the third round.

S Marcus Gilchrist and RB Jamie Harper also had good workouts. Gilchrist is a little tight but his footwork and ball skills were good and he remains a mid-round prospect. Harper's feet looked quick as well and he has some lateral agility, and he also caught the ball well out of the backfield. However, the 233-pound Harper runs with a narrow base and does not run decisively on film, so he grades out in the later rounds.

WR Doss recovering while Cobb shines

Indiana WR Tandon Doss did not take part in his school's March 10 pro day because of offseason groin surgery but has planned an April 6 private workout on campus.

Doss was bothered throughout 2010 by groin problems and also missed time in 2008 with other injuries, and some scouts we talk to are concerned. Doss is one of the most underrated receivers in the draft with very strong hands and ball skills and polished route-running. He has second-round talent but could fall a bit due to durability questions.

Kentucky WR Randall Cobb did work out on March 10 and helped cement his high second round grade. The versatile Cobb (5-10¼, 191) looked smooth and athletic during receiver drills and also ran routes out of the backfield. He runs good routes, makes tough catches in traffic, has experience as a Wildcat quarterback and is competitive in all facets.

CB Thomas could be a sleeper

Buffalo CB Josh Thomas worked out on March 10, and although Thomas was a bit tight and showed just average hands, his athleticism was good and he accelerated well. He showed good explosiveness with an improved broad jump (10-8) and vertical jump (40), and at 5-10⅝ and 192 pounds he is at his best in press man coverage.

Thomas turns and locates the ball well, shows good acceleration and has special teams value, making him a good mid-round value as a sub-package defensive back who will contribute more as he improves his technique.

 

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LSU pro day boosts several prospects

By Steve Muench


At least five LSU players have been selected in each of the past five drafts, and 2011 should be no different. We project six Tigers to come off the board this year, including likely top-10 pick CB Patrick Peterson, and all six showed off for NFL scouts at LSU's pro day on Monday.

Here's what we take away from their performances.


CB Patrick Peterson (grade: 97)
Peterson played it safe and did not participate in any timed events, and that's the right call because he had nothing to prove after running the 40-yard dash in the low-4.3-second range at the NFL combine. He dropped a pass during position-specific drills, but teams should not be concerned about his ability to play the ball after watching his film. Peterson has solidified himself as a top-10 pick.

DT Drake Nevis (grade: 75)
Nevis turned in two sub-5.00 times in the 40, a considerable improvement over his times at the combine. He's also 4 pounds heavier than he was in Indianapolis, and while he'll never be a space-eater, adding good weight that does not affect his initial burst and power is a plus. Nevis is still a bit undersized at 298 pounds, but he's shown enough to convince teams he will be a good value in the third round.

MLB Kelvin Sheppard (grade: 70)
Sheppard did not run the 40 at the combine and turned in times in the mid-4.7 and low-4.8 range, and he also had a disappointing showing in the three-cone drill. That drill is designed to test change-of-direction skills, and his subpar time raises concerns about Sheppard's ability to play on the outside.

However, he had a strong workout for an inside linebacker prospect and should fit nicely there at the next level. Sheppard has above-average top-end speed for an inside linebacker, especially considering his 250-pound frame, and although he must improve his ability to shed blocks, he does have the upper-body strength to get better in that area (22 repetitions on the 225-pound bench press). Overall, Sheppard has done enough to get himself onto the fringe of the third round.

OT Joe Barksdale (grade: 63)
Barksdale's arms somehow measured 35 inches on campus after measuring 36 at the combine, but either way he has the long arms that teams look for on offensive tackles. However, he was still slower than eight seconds in the three-cone drill, which does nothing to ease concerns about his ability to redirect quickly against pass-rushers. Barksdale remains projected for the middle rounds.

WR Terrence Toliver (grade: 58)
Toliver ran the 40 in the 4.65 range, but he tweaked his hamstring during the run after showing enough speed for his size (6-foot-4, 211 pounds) with a 4.52 at the combine. More importantly, Toliver flashes the blend of size and speed to stretch the field on film. Toliver showed some toughness by wrapping his leg up and catching the ball well during position-specific drills. He could prove to be a steal in the middle rounds.

RB Stevan Ridley (grade: 56)
Ridley didn't run the 40-yard dash (low 4.7s) as quickly as he did at the combine (4.65), but that won't hurt him much. The times are close considering he added 5 pounds since the combine, and Ridley projects as a powerful short-yardage back anyway.

He also put up 21 reps on the bench, and although upper-body strength isn't one of the top considerations when evaluating a running back, Ridley's ability to deliver a strong punch combines with his size to give him the tools to become an effective pass-blocker.

 

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Which needs will be addressed?

By Todd McShay


My next mock draft will be unveiled Wednesday, and without giving too much away here's a look at what I'm considering as I put together my new first-round projection.

Below are the top five needs I have assigned each of the teams picking in the top 10. Plenty of teams in the top 10 will have at least some interest in a quarterback and that's good news for Missouri's Blaine Gabbert and Auburn's Cam Newton, both of whom will be in my mock top five.

And despite the incredible amount of defensive line talent available in this class I expect to have only one defensive lineman in the top five and two of my top five overall prospects (Texas A&M OLB Von Miller and Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers) outside the top five picks.

Both the Panthers (No. 1) and Broncos (No. 2) address one of their top two needs; the Bills (No. 3) pass on their top two needs; the Bengals (No. 4) get an offensive wepon who fills one of their top two needs; and Arizona fills the biggest hole on its current roster.

Be sure to log on Wednesday morning to get a look at the top five and the rest of the first round.


Top-10 Draft Needs

Team...........................Need 1......Need 2......Need 3......Need 4......Need 5
1.. Carolina......................DT.........DE (3-4)......QB.............CB..........OLB
2.. Denver....................DE (rush)......CB............TE.............OC...........S
3.. Buffalo......................LOT.........DE (3-4)......QB.........OLB (3-4).....TE
4.. Cincinnati....................DE...........WR............QB............MLB.........SS
5.. Arizona.......................QB........OLB (3-4)......OG.............TE..........CB
6.. Cleveland...................WR.........DT (4-3)....DE (4-3).......MLB.........OLB
7.. San Francisco..............QB............CB...........DT/NT........OLB.........WR
8.. Tennessee..................QB............DT............LB.............OG..........CB
9.. Dallas......................DE (3-4).......OT............ILB.............S...........OG
10. Washington................QB............WR.........OLB (3-4)......RB........NT (3-4)

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Why does LSU always produce slow ILBs?

 

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Blaine Gabbert looks comfortable

By Todd McShay


Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert elected not to throw at the NFL combine so plenty of big-name NFL talent evaluators were in attendance for his on-campus pro day workout.

I spotted Denver Broncos coach John Fox and executive vice president John Elway, coaches Marvin Lewis (Cincinnati Bengals), Rex Ryan (N.Y. Jets) and John Harbaugh (San Francisco 49ers), and Minnesota Vikings general manager Rick Spielman, and they saw a quarterback who is clearly working hard to get comfortable in a pro-style offense after playing in a spread scheme with the Tigers.

Gabbert warmed up with 14 throws to stationary targets and then threw 50 scripted passes, and all but a handful came after taking direct snaps from Missouri C Tim Barnes. I kept a close eye on Gabbert's footwork and timing on his drops from under center and it did not seem foreign to him at all.

He was quick and smooth in his drops and almost always threw with good balance, getting the ball out quickly while transferring his weight from front to back and following through well.

Gabbert's mechanics were much more natural than what we saw from Auburn's Cam Newton during his recent pro day, and because Gabbert is much more consistent with his feet he was more consistently accurate as a passer. Newton has the stronger arm (though Gabbert's arm is more than adequate), but I'll take accuracy over arm strength every day of the week.

It was not a perfect workout and there were some instances when Gabbert's timing with a relatively unfamiliar group of receivers was off, but overall he showed the expected accuracy and I come away still convinced that Gabbert is the top quarterback in the 2011 class. He is a more natural passer than Newton and is much cleaner from a character standpoint, and Gabbert has everything NFL teams look for in terms of intangibles, leadership, football intelligence and work ethic.

Gabbert also has a chance to separate himself from Newton a bit over the next few weeks as he interviews with various teams and gets on the white board to show off his X-and-O knowledge, a process that will begin immediately with Spielman and other Vikings personnel staying in Columbia for a dinner meeting Thursday night and private workout with Gabbert on Friday.

Newton comes with too many red flags surrounding his character, and if I were going to risk my job by taking one of the two it would definitely be Gabbert. That doesn't mean a team won't fall in love with Newton's undeniable physical gifts and get satisfactory answers to the character questions to convince it to take Newton first, but that's not the choice I would make.

If Carolina is looking for a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick Gabbert did nothing during his workout to lessen the Panthers' opinion of him, and the same can likely be said about every other team with a quarterback need picking in the top 10. I didn't see either Panthers coach Ron Rivera or Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt, whose team picks fifth overall, in attendance, but you can be sure their scouts filled them in immediately.

But let's be clear that while Gabbert is a very good quarterback he is not on the same level Atlanta's Matt Ryan and St. Louis' Sam Bradford were coming out of college. Gabbert is a notch below that level, similar to where Detroit's Matthew Stafford and the New York Jets' Mark Sanchez were when they entered the league, but he certainly has the tools to become a solid NFL starter.

DE Smith shows well

Tigers DE Aldon Smith was overshadowed by the hype surrounding Gabbert, but Smith is a first-round prospect in his own right. He sat on his very good combine numbers in the 40-yard dash (4.74 seconds), vertical jump (34 inches) and broad jump (9-foot-10) but did take part in position drills.

Smith shows strong rip and club moves on tape and put his explosive upper-body power on display during bag work with Jacksonville defensive line coach Joe Cullen. However, while Smith is a good athlete for a 265-pound prospect he did show some of the same stiffness during his workout that we've seen on tape.

Smith has a somewhat lean frame but doesn't appear to have the lateral agility or fluid hips teams look for in 3-4 outside linebackers. But with room to add some bulk and his pass-rush ability Smith is well-equipped to play end in a 4-3 scheme. He has also shown on film the ability to slide inside and provide an interior pass rush.

It's not insignificant that Cullen was running Smith's workout because the Jaguars are picking 16th overall, right in the area we project Smith to come off the board. Tampa Bay (No. 20) is also a strong possibility for Smith, and while Ryan was in attendance the Jets (No. 30) would likely have to trade up to get Smith and he might not be a good fit in their hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense anyway.

Small-school wideouts get a chance to impress

Missouri does not have any draft-eligible prospects at wide receiver or tight end and because NFL players are locked out they are not allowed to work out in front of team personnel and thus prohibited from taking part in college pro days, which meant Gabbert was forced to throw to draft-eligible small-school receivers from surrounding colleges.

Working with unfamiliar receiver did cause some minor timing issues but didn't affect the workout as a whole from a scouting standpoint, and Lindenwood College WR Jamere Holland and Central Missouri WR Jamorris Warren took the opportunity to show their wares in front of NFL talent evaluators.

Holland, who transferred from USC to Oregon before being dismissed by the Ducks prior to the 2010 season, twice ran the 40 in less than 4.4 seconds. Warren clocked a 4.5, and neither could have asked for a better chance to make scouts take notice.

 

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Plenty of tools available in draft rooms

Teams assess need, value and prospect rankings when determining draft picksEmail Print Comments

By Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.


Teams understandably play a lot of tug-o-war before pulling the trigger on picks in the NFL draft, and while player value should always weigh more into a decision than team needs there are always some close calls to make when on the clock.

That's why general managers and other team officials utilize some visual tools to help keep perspective throughout the process, including tracking potential trades and projecting how the board will fall leading up to their next pick.

I released my latest mock draft on March 14 and there were some tough decisions to be made there, too. So how do draft pundits and NFL teams go about making those calls?

The first tool I used is a chart of team needs, which we have compiled below for every team picking in the first round, as well as the Oakland Raiders, who do not have a pick until the second round (48th overall). Teams need to know where their weaknesses are in order to address them and track what other teams have addressed.

Teams also use charts similar to our Stacking the Board documents, which place offensive prospects and defensive prospects into each round of the draft based on their grades. This can help prevent teams from reaching for positions of need.

Finally, a ranking of the draft's talent tiers, which place prospects into groups based on talent levels from Elite (top-5 worthy) to Day 3 Steals, is a helpful cross-check for the tools above when talent evaluators are considering draft position and trade offers.

The Cleveland Browns' selecting Colorado CB Jimmy Smith in the second round (No. 37 overall) is a perfect example of how all three tools come into play.

The Browns addressed their top need by taking Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers in the first round of my mock draft, and some might wonder why Cleveland would address its No. 4 need with Smith rather than addressing bigger holes at wide receiver and defensive tackle.

The first consideration is which receivers and defensive tackles are available, and in my projection WR Randall Cobb grades out in that area but DT Terrell McClain belongs late in the second. The Browns would be happy to get Cobb with the 37th pick, of course, but a closer look at the other rankings gives the nod to Smith.

His overall physical skill set puts Smith's grade in the the first round on the Stacking the Board chart, but character concerns and off-field baggage will likely drop him into the second. Examining the tiers reveals that Smith (mid-to-late first-round value) is a full category ahead of Cobb and two ahead of McClain, making Smith the best value despite the risks and causing the Browns to pull the trigger in my projection.

The cases of Hankerson and Sherrod

So how can these tools and an individual prospect be useful in assessing overall value in a class and how it relates to trades? Consider WR Leonard Hankerson.

Hankerson sits at No. 62 in our overall rankings but carries a third-round grade. There are 64 picks in the first two rounds, which means Hankerson is a reach at the end of the second round despite his overall ranking.

If a team is on the board at Nos. 62-64 and has Hankerson as its top-rated available player, that's an indication the value point is tipping and that trading back would be a desirable option in order to get better value.

The Chicago Bears could be in a similar situation at No. 29 overall, where I projected them reaching for OT Derek Sherrod.

The Bears' biggest need is at left offensive tackle, and while Sherrod is a mid-second-round prospect, he would be the best option given their needs and the players available. I don't project trades in my mock draft, though, and Chicago would almost certainly be looking to move up to take a player like C/G Mike Pouncey or trade back and get an additional pick and better value in the second round.

As film study continues and we tweak our prospect evaluations, there will be some shifting within talent tiers and how our board is stacked, but the scenarios laid out above provide some insight into how we formulate our projections and what teams consider when making their choices on draft weekend.



NFL Draft Needs

(Team Need 1 Need 2 Need 3 Need 4 Need 5)

1. Carolina Panthers DT QB CB OLB DE
2. Denver Broncos DT LB TE S DE
3. Buffalo Bills LOT QB DE (3-4) OLB (3-4) TE
4. Cincinnati Bengals QB WR DT OT RB
5. Arizona Cardinals QB OLB (3-4) OT/G TE CB
6. Cleveland Browns DE (3-4) WR DT CB OT
7. San Francisco 49ers QB NT CB OLB WR
8. Tennessee Titans QB DT ILB OG CB
9. Dallas Cowboys DE (3-4) OT ILB S OG
10. Washington Redskins QB NT WR OLB (3-4) ROT/OG
11. Houston Texans CB FS OLB NT SS
12. Minnesota Vikings QB FS OT DT C
13. Detroit Lions CB WLB SLB OT RB
14. St. Louis Rams WR OLB DT RB OG
15. Miami Dolphins RB OG QB FS ILB
16. Jacksonville Jaguars FS OLB WR QB DE
17. New England Patriots (from OAK) OLB DE OT OG RB
18. San Diego Chargers DE (3-4) ILB OLB (3-4) ROT WR
19. New York Giants LB C/LOG TE RB DT
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers DE MLB CB OLB RB
21. Kansas City Chiefs NT WR ROT ILB OLB
22. Indianapolis Colts OT OG DT CB SS
23. Philadelphia Eagles CB OLB ROG OT QB
24. New Orleans Saints DE OLB SS DT RB
25. Seattle Seahawks OT OG/C QB OLB CB
26. Baltimore Ravens CB WR OT DE FS
27. Atlanta Falcons DE (rush) OLB TE WR ROT/OG
28. New England Patriots OLB De OT OG RB
29. Chicago Bears LOT DT WR C OLB
30. New York Jets OLB NT DE WR OT/OG
31. Pittsburgh Steelers OT/OG CB NT WR TE
32. Green Bay Packers DE OLB OG WR RB
48. Oakland Raiders CB OL FS QB TE

 

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A.J. Green clearly atop the WR board

By Kevin Weidl


Georgia will hold its pro day workouts on Tuesday and there are three prospects in particular to keep an eye on, including a pair of first-round prospects

WR A.J. Green
Green's game tape has separated himself from the rest of the wide receiver class and it's not even close. Yes, No. 2 wideout Julio Jones turned in a spectacular combine performance, but he is recovering from surgery on a fractured foot and Green is simply light-years ahead in several areas.

Green is a silky-smooth route-runner at 6-foot-3⅝ and 211 pounds, and his fluidity in and out of breaks allows him to create significant separation from defenders. And while Jones is has a big, strong build Green has the most natural hands in the class and his long arms (34⅜ inches) and impressive body control give him elite ability to track and play the ball downfield and he makes tough catches look easy.

Green caught the ball well at the NFL combine despite one uncharacteristic drop and I don't expect his pro day to be any different. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.48 seconds at the combine and that's certainly an adequate time, but he'll likely try to improve in a familiar setting. Still, whether he improves that number his 34½ vertical and 10-foot-6 broad jump won't affect his stock one way or the other.

Overall, this workout is somewhat of a formality for Green. Several NFL scouts I've talked to share our feeling that Green is the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver and unless something catastrophic happens during his pro day he will remain a top-10 overall prospect.

DE/OLB Justin Houston
Houston also tested well at the combine (4.62 in the 40, 36½ vertical, 10-5 broad), but he might be looking to improve his 4.37-second short shuttle. That would show teams considering him as a 3-4 outside linebacker or rush end that he has adequate change-of-direction skills.

Houston (6-2⅞, 270) moved well for the most part the combine but he's not an elite athlete and his performance in drills will be important. We feel his best fit is as a pass-rushing end in a 4-3 but he can help his stock a bit if he shows 3-4 teams he can drop his weight, play under control in space and hold up in underneath zone coverage.

Houston's size and pass-rush potential have helped him get into the late-first round discussion and he could solidify that standing by showing some versatility during his workout.

OG Clint Boling
Pro days are not huge for offensive linemen but Boling would do well to improve on his average testing numbers at the combine. More importantly, because he'll be moving from tackle to guard at the next level scouts will be watching his lower-body flexibility during drills and assessing his ability to play with leverage.

Boling improved his stock during the college season and is coming off a good Senior Bowl, so showing well in those areas could help him cement a spot late in the second round. Given his tools it won't surprise me if he provides solid depth as a rookie and competes for a starting job early in his career.


Two defenders slipping

A pair of defensive players have not looked good to me during recent film study and are on their way out of the Day 2 conversation.

Michigan State ILB Greg Jones
Jones is the classic example of a very good college player who just doesn't translate well to the NFL. He is instinctive, plays under control and with balance, and he locates the ball well against the run and on screen plays, but he has some significant limitations.

I reviewed the coaches' copy tape of Michigan State's win over Wisconsin and Jones' lack of snap at the point of attack and struggles when trying to shock and shed blockers jumped out. He plays too high, and his range against the run is limited by inconsistent pursuit angles and lack of closing burst.

Jones is solid between the tackles, is a good wrap-up tackler and has adequate range in underneath zone coverage, but he lacks awareness in coverage at times and is just not explosive enough. He does shows some savvy timing blitzes and getting skinny to slip through the line, but overall the negatives outweigh the positives. Jones has already fallen to the fourth round and could end up in the fifth before all is said and done.

Clemson S DeAndre McDaniel
McDaniel had a productive college career (15 INTs) and shows adequate ball skills and the ability to make plays when in position, but his inconsistent instincts in pass coverage showed up a lot on film. He can be seen against Miami biting on a fake screen and allowing the receiver to run free down the field.

In addition, McDaniel is often too high in run support and misses a lot of open field tackles because he does not play with balance. I saw him live against Wake Forest and he missed several tackles after failing to break down in space and wrap up properly.

And while he flashes the ability to deliver violent strikes as a run defender McDaniel picks and chooses his battles and does not fill downhill consistently. Given his limitations, lack of elite size (6-0⅛, 217) and speed (4.6 range in the 40) and tightness in the hips McDaniel is in danger of falling into Day 3.