This award was wide-open during the season, as I named Buffalo’s Kiko Alonso and Arizona’s Tyrann Mathieu as likely winners at different points of the campaign. Mathieu seemed like the favorite heading into the home stretch, but he suffered a knee injury that ended his season and kept him to just 13 games, which will hurt his chances. I believe Mathieu would have won if he had stayed healthy, and given how great his story is, he still might pick up the hardware next weekend.
If I had a vote, I would give it to the Jets’ Sheldon Richardson, who was an excellent run defender on the league’s second-best run defense. I don’t know that he was all that much better than Star Lotulelei —*such is life when you’re judging the murky, near-ungradable lives of interior defensive linemen —*but Lotulelei had more stars around him and the cumulative effort in Carolina wasn’t quite as good against the run.
I suspect that the electorate will instead opt for Alonso. It’s not an awful choice by any means, but it’s definitely an easier call. Alonso has stats to help make his case, which goes a long way. He played on 1,145 snaps for Buffalo this season, making him one of just six linebackers to suit up for 100 percent of his team’s defensive snaps in 2013.1 While the Bills don’t have a reputation as such, they were the fifth-best overall defense per DVOA last season. Alonso’s four interceptions hinted at his range and left him tied for third in that category among linebackers, while he finished fifth in the league in the (almost entirely arbitrary) tackles statistic. Richardson ran over a few guards and occupied a lot of linemen, but there are no numbers for that.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
After a checkered history of possible winners throughout the season —*including Jets quarterback Geno Smith, for some reason —*this basically comes down to a two-man race between Packers halfback Eddie Lacy and Chargers wideout Keenan Allen. (Sorry, NFC North guard true believers.) Let’s try to make a case for each.
Lacy ran for 1,178 yards on 284 carries and scored 11 touchdowns in what amounts to 14 games, as he came out after one carry against Washington with an injury and was absent the following week. He was also banged up at the end of the year with an ankle injury suffered when Mike McCarthy sent him out for a meaningless halftime draw. (Don’t get me started.) He also had to deal with eight-man boxes while Aaron Rodgers was injured, thanks to the presence of Scenatt Toflace at quarterback. Oh, and his starting left tackle went down with a season-ending injury during the preseason. The odds were stacked against Lacy this year, but he still delivered the best single-season performance from a Packers running back since the heyday of Ryan Grant.
Allen also missed some time; injuries and other receivers kept him out of the starting lineup until Malcom Floyd got hurt. In 14 starts, Allen produced a 71-catch, 1,046-yard, eight-touchdown campaign that ranks as one of the most impressive rookie seasons for a receiver in recent memory. Just 12 wideouts since the merger have managed to post 1,000-yard campaigns during their rookie year, and it’s a pretty spectacular group. Plus, Michael Clayton! Allen was the star of a resurgent Chargers passing attack under Philip Rivers, and while there were more notable names in the San Diego receiving corps, Allen was the guy Rivers turned to when he needed a play. Seventh in third-down conversions this year, Allen converted 55 percent of his third-down targets into first downs, which was only topped by Tony Gonzalez and Anquan Boldin.2
I think it’s just about a dead heat. For me, I would say that the tie would go to the player taken later in the draft, which would push the trophy toward Allen. I know that’s entirely arbitrary and unfair, but it’s a sportswriter (fake-)voting for an award; that’s not anything new. I also think Allen will win the real voting because he had a better finish to the season, notably scoring twice in the nationally televised win over the Broncos. But if Lacy wins, nobody needs to riot.
Worst Contract of the Year
In a stunning late upset, it’s the capped-out Cowboys giving kicker Dan Bailey a seven-year contract!!! OK, maybe this isn’t a real award, but I had to find a space to talk about it. This, even for Jerry Jones, is a stunningly dumb move. The Cowboys just handed Bailey a deal that guarantees him $7.5 million and averages $3.2 million per year. They have absolutely no cap flexibility and need to save every penny they can, which would leave kicker —*the most fungible position in football and a place where you can find competent guys as undrafted free agents every single year like, not coincidentally, Dan Bailey —*as an obvious place to try to save money.
There’s nothing wrong with Bailey —*he’s a fine kicker. Football Outsiders suggests that he’s been worth 16.5 points over average on field goals over the past three years, even while he’s been almost exactly league-average on kickoffs. And yes, some of the length of the deal is to pad out the money involved and spread the signing bonus over a longer period. When you’re doing that to create the cap space needed to lock up a kicker, you’re probably doing something stupid. Put it this way: There are nine players signed through 2019, and they’re almost all superstars.3 Cutler and Bailey are now the only players signed through 2020. 3 are cowboys . Thanks, Jerry!
