2022 NFL Draft Thread
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dbair1967
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Good article on the backwards way of thinking Jones and Spawn have about the cap, and how it rarely works.
As a reminder, we had about 30 million cap space a week ago (40 million if you count that post June 1 release of Lael Collins)
Not a single free agent from another roster of ANY consequence has been added with that money.
www.bloggingtheboys.com
Just a few snippets from it:
Since 2011, there have been 48 teams to walk into the season with more than $20 million in cap, including the Cowboys twice. These teams average a 40%-win percentage and 67% finished at-or-below .500. The two seasons the Cowboys had more than $20 million in cap room led to an 8-8 year in 2011 and a 6-10 finish in 2020.
But these teams don’t just perform worse because they have a weaker roster, they have a strong tendency to disappoint as well. In fact, 78.7% of teams that walk into the season with $10 million or more in cap room finish less than .500 against the spread over the season. That would suggest if Dallas doesn’t start spending money there is only a 21.3% chance they exceed Vegas’ expectations in 2022.
Well, not really. The 106 teams that save more than $10 million in cap space increase their win percentage by .8% on average (the equivalent of .1 wins) in the year after they save the money. Meaning that even if the Cowboys tuck money away for 2023, there is no guarantee the team will be better one and a half years from now.
In fact, 48 out of the 106 teams regressed the year after they walked into the season with a favorable cap situation. From 2011 to 2020, it was equally common for a team to decline by four or more wins the year after saving more than $10 million as it was for them to improve by the same amount.
As a reminder, we had about 30 million cap space a week ago (40 million if you count that post June 1 release of Lael Collins)
Not a single free agent from another roster of ANY consequence has been added with that money.
Cowboys need to spend now because saving extra cap space rarely works out
Historically, extra cap space has not been a luxury, and teams that spend more win more. The Cowboys need to be more active in the market.
www.bloggingtheboys.com
Just a few snippets from it:
Since 2011, there have been 48 teams to walk into the season with more than $20 million in cap, including the Cowboys twice. These teams average a 40%-win percentage and 67% finished at-or-below .500. The two seasons the Cowboys had more than $20 million in cap room led to an 8-8 year in 2011 and a 6-10 finish in 2020.
But these teams don’t just perform worse because they have a weaker roster, they have a strong tendency to disappoint as well. In fact, 78.7% of teams that walk into the season with $10 million or more in cap room finish less than .500 against the spread over the season. That would suggest if Dallas doesn’t start spending money there is only a 21.3% chance they exceed Vegas’ expectations in 2022.
Well, not really. The 106 teams that save more than $10 million in cap space increase their win percentage by .8% on average (the equivalent of .1 wins) in the year after they save the money. Meaning that even if the Cowboys tuck money away for 2023, there is no guarantee the team will be better one and a half years from now.
In fact, 48 out of the 106 teams regressed the year after they walked into the season with a favorable cap situation. From 2011 to 2020, it was equally common for a team to decline by four or more wins the year after saving more than $10 million as it was for them to improve by the same amount.
Scot
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Why is the NFL network replaying a bunch of our games from last season lately?
Not only that but they are going to replay last seasons Hard Knocks with the Cowboys.
What’s going on? Why are they trying to amp up excitement for us when we ain’t dun shit in da offseason?
They should be amping up the Broncos or Browns to get people excited.
Is the NFL finally engineering a Cowboy Super Bowl win? Are those yearly errant bad penalties going to all go our way this season?
Something about all this just feels “weird” or suspicious
Not only that but they are going to replay last seasons Hard Knocks with the Cowboys.
What’s going on? Why are they trying to amp up excitement for us when we ain’t dun shit in da offseason?
They should be amping up the Broncos or Browns to get people excited.
Is the NFL finally engineering a Cowboy Super Bowl win? Are those yearly errant bad penalties going to all go our way this season?
Something about all this just feels “weird” or suspicious
dbair1967
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Broncos, yeah ok I can buy that.
Browns? No way in hell, that team will be a total shitshow and that trade (and subsequent contract) they made will go down as one of the laughingstock moves in the history of sports.
Scot
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I’m not saying either team will be good.
But there is a ton of hype and buzz around the Browns because of the Watson trade. So the NFL would want to play on that momentum.
Plus the browns have been shit for so long they have had very little to be excited about for decades.