Trade 'em or Dump 'em: Identifying Cowboys who could, should go
K.D. Drummond
October 26, 2020 1:09 pm
This article is not going to condone blowing up the 2020 Dallas Cowboys. Repeat, this article is not going to condone blowing up the 2020 Dallas Cowboys. I am a believer that the primary conversations that have been had all season still hold true. This staff, as five others around the league were, was handcuffed by the coronavirus pandemic. This roster, has been besieged by a rash of injuries. There are numerous other things wrong with the mixture of what is happening, but I hold these truths to be self-evident. While the defensive coaching certainly carries a ton of blame, the offensive staff does have excuses.
My personal opinion is somewhat irrelevant in this exercise. Providing the ground work for what the Cowboys could do with their roster is something I want to provide to the conversation. If someone reading this wants to set dynamite to the roster, I want to help them understand what each departing piece would mean. Therefore, here’s a collection of thoughts on what moving away from many members of the organization would look like in terms of compensation and damage (or relief) to the salary cap.
As a reminder, we do not know what the cap will look like in 2021. Originally projected to increase to $210 million to $215 million, it will go in the opposite direction. The league agreed to set a floor of $175 million, with any other COVID-19 revenue adjustments to be felt in 2022 or beyond. Yeah, things are that bad. So we’ll operate with the worst in mind, that 2021 will be at $175 million and with concern for not much growth to it in 2022. That matters when dealing with contracts that (for all 32 NFL teams) were agreed to with the idea that the cap was going to keep rising by $10 million or more every year, and the new TV deals coming in 2022 was going to have a ballooning of the cap
similar to what the NBA saw a half decade ago.
The trade deadline is November 3.
QB Dak Prescott
The Cowboys are going to have to tag Prescott again in 2021. He is past the infection concern stage reportedly, but likely won’t be ready to show off his recovery before the league year starts.
Here’s the big question to ponder for the front office that has publicly stated concern over having a QB take up too much cap space (it’s a ridiculous concept but they said it, not us). If the Cowboys have a Top 8 pick and Prescott is under a tag and not a long-term agreement, does the team consider trading him for a bounty before the draft?
Again, not condoning in the least, just laying out the terrain.
RB Ezekiel Elliott
Elliott has $10.8 million in prorated signing bonus money allocated on the 2022 through 2024 caps. If traded, that accelerates onto the 2021 cap, which already will have $4.1 million of SB allocation on it.
The $10.8M cancels out the base salary of $9.6M that would go away if he was jettisoned, leaving more money on the books than if he was kept, but freeing up the future years.
I do not condone trading Elliott, but giving those who do the financial information necessary to speak intelligently on the situation.
As far as value for such a move, I imagine Dallas could get a second-round pick for Elliott, which is below where I believe his value to the organization is.
DE Aldon Smith
It might be a surprise, but Aldon Smith is probably the Cowboys most attractive trade asset. He’s ridiculously cheap, productive and a rental. The biggest detriment to his value is the reason he’s been out the league for several years and the fact teams haven’t had the opportunity to do their due diligence the way Dallas had.
Seattle seems like the perfect place for him, and they are a team that has no issue trading draft assets.
Aldon is likely going to bring in a 5th-round comp pick in 2022 as a departing player. So why not flip him now for a 5th rounder in 2021?
LB Jaylon Smith
Because Smith was signed to an extension with two years of team control still remaining, he still has five years left on his salary.
His cap number for the first two years, 2019 and 2020 only went up by $3.5 million total with the allocation of the $13 million in bonuses. It’s the commitment that’s the issue.
Going into 2021, Smith has $9.4 million of bonus money left to be allocated, but his 2021 base salary is “just” $7.6 million. There’d be a net savings of $400,000 if he was gone prior to 2021, based on how much he was projected to cost. Again, that’s money taken up for someone not on the team.
Trading him would result in $306,000 2020 savings for each week remaining in the season.
DT Dontari Poe
If the Cowboys can get anything for Poe, they should. His snap count is dwindling on the heels of his contributions. Trading Poe would save just over $1.5 million on this year’s cap and get rid of his $3.5 million 2021 base salary + roster bonuses.
If Dallas could get a conditions 6th/7th for Poe they should take it, just for the salary relief.
The issue, whether folks want to admit it or not, is the fact that the first player in team history to kneel in silent protest during the anthem would be getting traded from a really bad team with an owner who previously had threatened to fire any player who knelt. The optics would be horrendous for Jerry Jones.
WR Amari Cooper
Cooper is the one big-money player whom the team is set up to move on from, but in the first year of a new deal that still is outrageous.
Cooper’s low signing bonus of just $10 million is broken over five years, so trading him now would accelerate $6 million of cap hits from 2022 through 2024 onto the 2021 cap. With a base salary of $20 million and cap hit of $22 million, the net savings on the 2021 cap would be $14 million if they were to trade Cooper this year or in the offseason.
Cooper sits fifth in the league in receiving yards and has proven he is immune to bad QB play over his career, cemented as being the only WR with a catch in Sunday’s game.
Cooper could net a first-round pick. I don’t believe the team should damage their one remaining strength, but it’s far from the worst idea among the options.
LB Sean Lee
This is my favorite scenario, because it helps both parties. Trading Lee to a contender is the right thing to do for the guy who has had bad luck in Dallas when it comes to injuries.
Lee will cost just over $100,000 for every game he plays as a bonus, on top of his 2020 base salary of $2 million he’s getting paid. That’s $217,000 or so in weekly savings if they moved him. Lee thought about retirement in the offseason, this is likely it.
Send him away for a conditional pick. If he makes it through the season, he’s a fifth. If he plays some, he’s a sixth. If he doesn’t play, no compensation, you just got him off your books.
Send him somewhere he can help if and when he gets healthy.
WR Michael Gallup
Gallup is cheap, still with another year remaining on his rookie contract. He’s shown capable of being a bona fide 1A, though a club will likely not look at him as an alpha based on no evidence of thriving without a player like Cooper next to him. No fault of his own, but that would cause trepidation.
It leads me to believe a team would hesitate to offer a second-round pick, which at that point, why would Dallas take back a third rounder (Gallup’s original draft slot) just to turn around and use it to try and get another Gallup?
DE DeMarcus Lawrence
Lawrence has come on in the last three weeks as he appears to be getting over his knee ailments. Still, fans want blood and without multiple sack games they will not be satiated.
Lawrence is the club’s best defender, but again, I’m here to provide the facts.
Dallas restructured Lawrence’s deal this offseason. Starting in 2021, he has $27 million of bonus money allocated over the next three seasons. His base salary in 2021 is just $17 million.
No, Dallas will not be trading Lawrence though he would probably be worth a 1st-round pick if they did. Him locked up for three years for an acquiring club with just his 2021 salary guaranteed makes him worth much more than what Yannick Ngakoue got for the Vikings.
CB Chidobe Awuzie
If you are of the belief this team is not likely to make the playoffs, one has to think of whether or not the coaching staff believes Awuzie could be in their long-term future.
If they are considering it, then keep him, let him return and make up your mind with evidence. If they are ready to part ways, trade him and give another club a chance to evaluate him in house for an extension.
Awuzie is likely worth a 2022 firth or sixth-round comp as a departing free agent. Take either in 2021 in a trade.
CB Jourdan Lewis
By this point the staff knows whether or not they intend to try and bring Lewis back in 2021 as another CB free agent.
Same parameters as Awuzie, fifth or sixth-round compensation.
FS Xavier Woods
Woods is the hardest one to trade, because he’s seemed on the precipice of greatness but has regressed under this current staff. He feels like the guy everyone should expect to ball out if he leaves Dallas and he also is a FA in 2021.
Another guy that could net a fifth or sixth-rounder if giving another team the chance to see him in person.
DE Everson Griffen
According to Todd Archer at ESPN, the club tried to trade Griffen already and has no takers.
He has $6 million in salary split among base and game-day bonuses, so there’s substantial savings if they move on from him. He’s starting to contribute a bit more, but it has not been good thus far in Dallas.
They might take a conditional sixth or seventh at this point.