Initial reaction after the conference championships was that the 49ers were going to win, handidly. After giving it a lot of thought, I've now decided that while the 9'ers might win, it'll be very close (no more than 3), but when its all said and done, I think the Ravens emerge victorious. Which I hate, because I detest Ray.
Heres why...
1. Ravens have the edge at QB
Joe Flacco is a BIG GAME player and Kaepernick is not.
Flacco is 8-4 in the post season. The Ravens should've won the AFC last year. The stage wont be too big for him. He's kind of a Jersey Shore meathead, but he's wildly underrated. He's the SB MVP...
Kaep has only started 11 games. Yeah, he's looked incredible doing it. But look at his history at Nevada. Huge numbers, exciting games. Yadda yadda yadda. His Bowl game record? Meh. Kaep led the Wolf Pack to four straight bowls, where he stunk it up each time. He went 1-3 in Bowls, winning his final bowl game (20-13) against a terrible offensive BC team. He rushed for only 22 yards that game, threw a INT after only throwing 2 all year and threw for a modest 20 for 33 for 192, all statistics way down from his season averages. The 3 years before that were all Bowl game losses. In 2009, he scored only 10 points after averaging over 35 pts/game that season. Again rushed for only 23 and threw for 155 yards. WAY DOWN. In 2008, he lost to the mighty Terps, threw for 3 INTS and rushed for a whopping 15 yards. His freshman year he got shut out throwing 13 for 31.
By the way only 3 QBs in history have thrown for 8+ TDs and ZERO INTs in the playoffs. Their Superbowl record? 3-0
2. Ravens have the edge at Kicker
Justin Tucker vs David Ackers. Ackers was a 65% kicker the last half of the year. He made only 2 out of 7 kicks over 40 yards and missed 3 of 16 inside 40 yards. Ackers went 1 out of 2 in the playoffs so far. Everyone on of his stats were below the league average. Tucker was most impressive his rookie year. He went a perfect 16 of 16 inside 40 yards. Tucker was impressive going 4 for 4 outside of 50 yards and 10 of 13 from 40-49. Tucker sent 30 out of 33 kicks through the uprights for the season plus added on 2 for 2 in the playoffs including a 47 yard game winner in double overtime after going 4 hours without a field goal opportunity.
If this is a close game and comes down to the kickers, which most NFL games are, the Ravens have a huge edge.
3. Momentum/Us against the world mentality
The Super Bowl isn't about whos the best team anymore. It's about who gets hot at the right time. That team is the Ravens. They have taken down 2 huge favorites and 2 future HOF quarterbacks to get here. They pulled a 4th and 29 out of their ass just to make the playoffs (they don't get in if they lose that game).
4. Preparation
Both teams are well coached. Theres no question about that. So it'll be hard to gain an edge in preparation. But consider the earlier mentioned Wolfpacks lackluster Bowl record and Kaeps struggles in those games. I submit to you that that is because the Read Option from the Pistol formation is hard to prepare for on account to it being a unique offense teams arent accustomed to facing. Hence, Nevadas success in the regular season. Give a team some time to prepare - like teams have after the reg season awaiting their bowl, and defenses do much better. The Ravens - a defense loaded with experienced veterans and an excellent defenseive coaching staff will be prepared. They've got Tyron Taylor running their scout team who serves as good of a Kaep clone as you'll get on a scout team.
Finally....
5. Black helicopter/aluminum foil hats
Remember Jerome Bettis ending his career in Detroit. Remember all the BS calls the Steelers got that game? In this game, you have Ray Lewis - a double murder/cheater - who has been transformed into a media darling. Spokesman for the league. Already hired by ESPN to be an analyst, and Roger Goodell plans to hire him as an advisor. Final game of his career. Super Bowl. What a story it'd be for ol' Ray Ray to win it, eh? I think the Ravens get some calls in this game.
I don't hate the 9'ers like most Cowboys fans do. I could give a shit less about them getting 6 before us. In fact, I want the 9ers to win outright. That is what my heart.
But I'm betting with my head. You should too.
Ravens +4
Under 47.5
