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By Rob Rang
The Sports Xchange/CBSSports.com
The first 20 picks of the 2012 NFL draft were settled on the final day of the regular season.
Well, almost. Coin flips will determine whether the Carolina Panthers or Miami Dolphins pick eighth or ninth. The 7-9 Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks will also have to wait for a coin flip to find out which team gets the 11th pick -- the other will be No. 12 -- in April.
Of course, the final 12 spots of the draft order haven't yet been decided. For now, teams are placed according to their playoff seeding -- but don't get too attached to those placements. If the 2011 playoffs are anything like the just-completed regular season, little will go as planned.
Things certainly didn't go as planned for the Indianapolis Colts in 2011.
With Peyton Manning out, they limped to a 2-14 season. The next four months will provide fascinating drama as the Colts decide whether to rely on Manning returning healthy for a 15th NFL season or if the team will end one era by beginning a new one.
NFL Mock Draft - 1/1/2012
Round 1
1. Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford: With their loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17, the Indianapolis Colts "won" the the first pick and officially opened the door to the most compelling decision the NFL has seen with the first overall pick in years. Unless Colts' vice chairman Bill Polian is confident that Peyton Manning will return to his All-Pro form next year, he has to prepare for the Colts future. Griffin's dynamic upside will get him consideration but in the end Luck is too safe (and too good) to pass up.
2. St. Louis Rams
Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State: The Rams, believe -- and I strongly agree -- Sam Bradford is a franchise quarterback. Don't expect the team to draft another passer, though trading the pick to a QB-desperate team is certainly a strong possibility. The Rams need receiver help for Bradford to develop and may look to Blackmon, even though he'd provide much greater value outside of the top five rather than as the No. 2 pick of the draft.
3. Minnesota Vikings
Matt Kalil, OT, Southern California: Considering the pass rushers in the NFC North division, high-caliber blindside tackles are required. The Vikings aren't likely to pass on an opportunity to draft a future Pro Bowler. That's exactly what Kalil represents. Scouts would like to see Kalil play with more consistent technique, but he's been able to dominate at the collegiate level based only on his size (6-6, 295) and athleticism.
4. Cleveland Browns
RGIII, QB, Baylor: Browns head coach Pat Shurmur's off-hand comments that Robert Griffin III is a "tremendous talent" and "good player" is certain to create buzz in Cleveland that he could fit in their current West Coast Offense because, as Shurmur noted, "good players fit in every offense." Even Colt McCoy's biggest proponents can't help but wonder if Griffin's dazzling combination of mobility and accuracy can bring a Heisman Trophy to Baylor, what could it do for a franchise that seems perennially snake-bitten.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama: With a powerful running game complementing Josh Freeman and their young receivers, the Bucs caught the NFL by surprise in 2010. A year later the Bucs saw feature runner LaGarrette Blount run for approximately 25 percent less yardage despite starting twice as many games. Running back isn't the biggest area of concern for Tampa Bay, but Richardson is among the truly elite talents in the draft and an obvious upgrade over Tampa's current stable of backs.
6. Washington Redskins
Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU: The Redskins would love to see Griffin slide to them, but that isn't likely. Considering how owner Daniel Snyder and head coach Mike Shanahan have enjoyed making draft-day splashes in the past, don't be surprised if the team engineers a trade up to get the Heisman winner. Otherwise the Redskins could take Claiborne -- the 2011 Thorpe Award winner -- who would give the Redskins more consistent play than veteran DeAngelo Hall.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama: In averaging an NFL worst 259.2 yards per game and only slightly better (28th) in points per game (15.3), clearly the Jaguars' biggest needs are on the offensive side of the ball. That said, general manager Gene Smith isn't likely to panic and take an offensive prospect in the blind hopes that a rookie receiver or offensive tackle will light a spark. Smith, who quietly is well respected throughout the league, is more likely to draft the best player available, press corner Dre Kirkpatrick.
8. Carolina Panthers
Devon Still, DT, Penn State: Carolina owes the fact that they are currently slated to have a top ten pick due to an inability to stop the run. The 6-4, 310-pound Still hasn't always played with the consistency scouts would like but emerged as a leader and difference-maker as a senior for the Nittany Lions, earning recognition as the Big Ten's Defensive Player of the Year.
9. Miami Dolphins
Nick Perry, DE, Southern California: Admittedly, this is a bit high for the Trojan pass rusher and a fit for their current 3-4 scheme. But the 6-3, 255-pound Perry seems to be just scratching the surface of his potential and is expected to work out extremely well. Whether the Dolphins gamble on Perry's upside or play it safe with Alabama's Courtney Upshaw's power, adding a pass rusher to line up opposite Cameron Wake, could make for a sound consolation prize for the Dolphins if no elite quarterback prospect is available.
10. Buffalo Bills
Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College: The Bills' offense was productive enough early in the season to hide the fact that the Bills' defense simply hasn't improved much from last year - a group that broke team records with their futility. A top 10 pick is historically high for any inside linebacker but considering the Bills' needs and Kuechly's production he sure would seem like a player who could make an immediate impact for this team.
11. Kansas City Chiefs
Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa: Chiefs' general manger Scott Pioli is very familiar with Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz given their Cleveland Browns' background and ties to Bill Belichick. Pioli may have to use this connection to investigate Ferentz's latest prized pupil, Reiff. Should the junior elect to leave early, the Chiefs would be one of several teams picking in the top 20 that could use an infusion of athleticism on the blindside.
12. Seattle Seahawks
Quinton Coples, DT, North Carolina: The Seahawks would love to see one of the elite quarterback prospects fall to them, but with the team improving despite inconsistent play from Tarvaris Jackson, they aren't likely to reach to fill a need. Another area of concern is along the defensive line. Coples has lined up at defensive end this season, but played better a year ago inside at defensive tackle. His ability to slip gaps could make him a perfect fit as a three-technique next to run-plugging nose guard Brandon Mebane.
13. Arizona Cardinals
Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford: Kevin Kolb has been a disappointment in his first season as the Cardinals' starting quarterback, but the team isn't likely to panic after just one year. Rather, the team would be wise to protect him with better blindside protection than Levi Brown. Martin is considerably lighter on his feet than Brown, who many had pegged as a better right tackle prospect when he came out of Penn State.
14. Dallas Cowboys
Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska: The Cowboys' defense made gains under Rob Ryan, but inconsistencies in the secondary led to plenty of breakdowns. Sources tell me the Cowboys were very intrigued last year with Nebraska cornerback Prince Amukamara. Perhaps they'll pull the trigger on a Husker cornerback this time around with the short but physical Dennard, who many scouts are giving a higher grade to this season than they did his former teammate at this same time last year.
15. Philadelphia Eagles
Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: Clearly the Eagles have concerns other than wide receiver, but with DeSean Jackson allowing his contract status to be a season-long distraction and a bounty of draft picks in the first three rounds, don't be surprised if Philadelphia considers other options. At 6-3, 220 pounds, Floyd has the prototypical build for Andy Reid's version of the West Coast Offense.
16. NY Jets
Mark Barron, SS, Alabama: For all of the talent the Jets boast outside at cornerback, the play down the middle has been significantly less impressive this season. The Jets have struggled against tight ends this season and could use an instinctive, big hitting safety to fall into their lap. While the team certainly has other needs to consider, if Alabama's Mark Barron is available, perhaps it might be wise to take the easy way out.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland)
David DeCastro, OG, Stanford: The strong play from rookies Andy Dalton and A.J. Green has hidden the reality that the Bengals remain a team that prides itself on running the football. Under line coach Paul Alexander, the Bengals have done a nice job of doing that again this season despite some inconsistencies inside. DeCastro is earning comparisons to former Oakland Raider great Steve Wisniewski for his size and physical play.
18. San Diego Chargers
Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama: This is a bit higher than Upshaw should likely go, but if San Diego general manager A.J. Smith has proven anything over the course of his career it is that he is willing to stick with his own team's grades rather than follow the herd. Upshaw, experienced at defensive end and outside linebacker, may be able to provide the consistent pass rush that 2009 first round pick Larry English has thus far been unable to give the Chargers.
19. Chicago Bears
Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor: The Bears feature a hodge-podge of wide receivers who owe much of their success to Mike Martz' aggressive offense rather than playmaking abilities of their own. Wright boasts top-end speed and has made significant gains this season in terms of route-running and catching the ball with his hands. If Martz is headed elsewhere after this season as rumored, natural playmakers could prove a key need in 2012.
20. Tennessee Titans
Melvin Ingram, OLB, South Carolina: Rookie defensive tackle Karl Klug led the Titans with seven sacks in 2011. Only two other Tennessee defenders registered more than three sacks. The 6-2, 270-pound Ingram lacks the size scouts would prefer and as such could be more heavily pursued by 3-4 teams looking for outside linebackers than a 4-3 team like Tennessee looking for help at defensive end. Ingram is a natural pass rusher, however, who'll make an immediate impact.
21. Cincinnati Bengals
Lamar Miller, RB, Miami (Fla.): If there is a running back in the country capable of leaping into the first round to join Alabama's Trent Richardson, it is likely the 'Canes' redshirt sophomore, Miller. Possessing big play speed to go with his 5-11, 212-pound frame, Miller could prove to be a difference-maker and insurance for the Bengals behind the bruising Cedric Benson.
22. Detroit Lions
Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama: Jenkins has top 20 talent, but his off-field problems could leap him to slip. The Lions were lauded for snatching up Nick Fairley when he dropped last year and could get better immediate dividends from the playmaking Jenkins.
23. Cleveland Browns
Zach Brown, OLB, North Carolina: Despite featuring two of the bigger, stronger defensive tackles in the NFL in 2011 first-round pick Phil Taylor and veteran Ahtyba Rubin, the Browns currently rank 31st in run defense. Part of the reason for this is a lack of speed and playmaking ability on the flanks. Brown, 6-2, 230 pounds, has been North Carolina's most consistent defender this season and is expected to wow scouts in workouts, leading to a jump up the board.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State: The Steelers seemingly patch up their offensive line annually, only to struggle with injuries and consistency up front. Glenn lacks the consistency to earn a first-round grade from all clubs, but the 6-5, 350-pounder has the size the Steelers prefer upfront and, as a rare four-year starter with experience at left tackle, left guard and right guard he has the durability and versatility the team prioritizes on draft day.
25. Denver Broncos
Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State: Due to the terrific play on the outside by Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil and the big hitting up the middle by D.J. Williams, the Broncos have been surprisingly stout this season against the run despite a relative lack of size and talent at defensive tackle. Worthy is a gamble as he lacks consistency, but he could be a star -- especially when protected by the type of talent John Fox has already on this roster.
26. NY Giants
Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford: The Giants are among the more talented teams in the league but their maddening inconsistency is sure to result in changes in the offseason. One obvious area in which the team could improve would be to add a tight end capable of making big plays down the middle. The 6-6, 250-pound Fleener averaged 20.2 yards per reception for Stanford in 2011, leading the team with 10 touchdowns. Considering the other weapons on this offense, Fleener could make an immediate impact in a similar role as what that the Patriots and Saints run with Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham.
27. Pittsburgh Steelers
Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis: The Texans have emerged as one of the NFL's best teams, but run defense remains a concern as the team doesn't have a dominant nose guard. Poe, at 6-5 and 350 pounds, possesses a rare combination of size, strength and athleticism and would surely intrigue the Texans and any other teams in search of a nose guard, should he leave Memphis early.
28. New England Patriots
Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State: Cox will appeal to Bill Belichick for various reasons, not the least of which is the fact that the 6-4, 295-pound junior is just scratching the surface of his potential. And make no mistake, the potential is there for Cox to be a star. The Bulldog defensive tackle earned the SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week four times this season and is highly regarded by scouts because of his size, strength and ability to play inside or out in multiple fronts. That type of versatility will also certainly intrigue Belichick.
29. Baltimore Ravens
Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin: Veteran Matt Birk has played reasonably well for the Ravens but will be entering his 15th season in 2012. Guard Ben Grubbs, a former first-round pick and arguably Baltimore's most consistent offensive lineman, is scheduled for free agency. General manager Ozzie Newsome won't go through the 2012 draft without addressing the interior of his offensive line. Should Konz elect to leave Madison early, he'd be a prize at this point in the draft.
30. San Francisco 49ers (from New Orleans)
Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers: The injury to Josh Morgan and relative disappointment that Michael Crabtree has been since being the 49ers' 2009 first-round pick makes wide receiver an area of concern. A prototypical receiver for the West Coast system, Sanu's size, physicality and toughness make up for a lack of elite speed.
31. New England Patriots
Andre Branch, DE, Clemson: A defensive end for the Clemson Tigers, Branch's value could rise exponentially if the 6-4, 260-pound senior proves as fluid in workouts as he appears when chasing down ballcarriers. The Patriots received some pretty strong play this season from veterans Andre Carter and Mark Anderson but in Branch the team would have a pass rusher capable of lining up at defensive end or rushing the passer from the two point stance should the Patriots revert back to Belichick's customary 3-4 defense in 2012.
32. Green Bay Packers
Jared Crick, DE, Nebraska: General manager Ted Thompson loves to use high-round picks to fortify his lines. A disappointing senior season and torn pectoral muscle could push Crick down the board a bit, but a year ago he would have rated as a possible top 20 pick. Few talent evaluators are better at finding slipping talents like Thompson, who might envision the 6-4, 285 pound Crick as a perfect candidate to compete inside and out for the Packers.
