It’s important to watch states that are both reasonably close and have many electoral votes -- such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina and Michigan. North Carolina and Florida are very close -- Clinton leads by one point in Florida and Trump leads by 1.5 in North Carolina. If Trump were to win both of those states as well as Ohio, Iowa, Georgia and Arizona, he’ll be at 259 Electoral Votes. If Trump managed to add Pennsylvania or Michigan (he currently trails in both), he would win. But if Clinton wins Michigan, Florida and Pennsylvania along with every state we rate as “Likely Clinton” and “Leans Clinton,” she will become the next president.