Hoofbite
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Free Agency:
It'd likely take a lot of money and some contract structuring that pays these guys larger portions in different years but I don't think it's out of the question that Dallas could afford these guys.
Brandon Carr: No Brainer. Hope it doesn't cost too much. Probably the most expensive signing in the bunch. Routt's cap hi this season is 6M. If KC swapped the bonuses schedule for this year and next year his cap hit would be 2M. You can really backload a contract like his because he's young and in 4 years the cost of a CB will be substantially higher. I'd get him and probably take a low, low number this year and raise it a bit next year when some dead money comes off the books. Johnathan Joseph scored 5 Years / 48M and his first year cap hit was 9.75M, largely due to a 7M base salary. With a 2.5M cap hit on his bonus, maybe you could try to keep that base salary down (if possible under the CBA) and come out with a 4M hit the first year.
Chris Myers: Best Center in the NFL over the past few years. Will probably cost a decent amount in terms of a C but that's not all that much in relative terms compared to other players. This may cost a bit but it should be one of the best value additions for the team. I think he could be signed to one of the top C contracts and still be kept at a reasonable cap number. Ryan Kalil got a recent C contract of 6 Years / 49M. His cap hit for year 1 was 4M, year 2 is 4.5M but year 3 it goes up to 9M and stays there Tennessee signed their C and payed him almost 7M in year 1 but his cap hit dropped to 4.1M last year and is at 4.6M this year. Centers typically aren't paid that much but this guy is the best C in the league or one of the best so he's gonna get his. I really don't know what he would cost.
Sione Pouha: Word is Jets can't franchise him. One of the best NTs over the last few years. Been a beast of run stopper for the last 3 seasons (Grading no worse than 4th) and has improved in his rush ability. And while his pass rush ability grade isn't really all that good, he still makes up for it and earns top overall grade for NTs last year because he was so good at stopping the run and didn't commit a penalty. Hasn't committed a penalty since getting the starting job in 2009. Also has experience in a Ryan system which means he should be able to hand the transition nicely.
Estimating what he might cost is tough because a lot of top DT/NT cap hits are guys playing in the last couple years of their ridiculously over payed rookie contracts. If you look at a guy like Wilfork, his cap hit last year was a little over 4M. Kevin Williams was at 6M last year. I don't think he's as good as either of those guys as he only has 3 career sacks and is a pure run stopper so maybe Dallas can get him for significantly less than those other guys and come out with a cap hit of like 3M.
Depth Corner: I'd have to look at who's available again. Jason Allen from Houston will probably get more than a depth CB should.
If Tim Jennings could make the transition from Chicago's Tampa 2 he would be a good depth corner. I know that transition is unlikely but Marshall played against top notch offenses all throughout the season. The Bears faced 10 Top 10 offenses last season. He was thrown at A BUNCH and only gave up 57% completion. His YPA is better than Carr's and many other players. Brent Grimes (Not Leaving ATL), Courtland Finnegan, Jason Allen and William Gay are the only guys of about 20 FA CBs that I have looked at who have a better YPA. Jennings also didn't give up a TD last year. Wouldn't touch William Gay because the Steelers played 1 Top 10 offense last year and about 8 Bottom 10 offenses.
Only problem with Jennings, he's probably earned more money from a Tampa 2 team and he may not be able to make the transition. Still though, played the 2nd most snaps of Chicago DBs behind Tillman, graded a little lower overall but had better coverage stats in just about every category. Oh, another problem. He's small. Also may be a reason why he's not there next year because Lovie Smith has said somethings about his height IIRC.
Richard Marshall from GB or Jarrett Bush from AZ could be decent guys but may cost a little more.
Getting any one of these guys to push Ball or Walker off the roster would be a big, big upgrade.
Really just got find a guy who's an upgrade and will fit in with the cap.
Re-Sign:
Robinson: I'm probably in a small minority that thinks he's a no-brainer to re-sign. I don't care why he was productive, he just works with Romo on a level that may has only been superseded by Crayton in terms of WR. Given the little time he had to get acclimated, I think he and Romo looked the most comfortable out there as the season progressed. We've talked for many seasons about getting a good #3 and now that he's here people are wanting to shoot for another guy. I don't think he'll cost that much really. Certainly not prohibitive to other moves. James Jones signed a contract for 3 years and came in under 3M for a cap hit and doesn't go over high 3M for the remainder of the contract. I can't see Robinson getting double that contract so maybe somewhere in the middle if he's extremely lucky with a 3M cap hit this year.
Carr at 4M, Pouha at 3M, Robinson at 3M and I'll just throw out 5M for the C. 15M taken in cap space. I've seen Adam say that Dallas finished 2011 with 17-18M in cap space. I don't know where that puts them to start the season but I can't imagine it will be far off.
Depending on moves above and cap space.
Basically, to make this move Dallas will need to move money around. I don't think they can have a really good offseason without doing it while keeping Spencer. Signing him long term can less the burden right now but you don't want to have too many contracts backloaded and you may have to backload a few to get all those guys signed.
Spencer: I absolutely hate it but the team seems hell bent on keeping him and the alternative of Franchising him just doesn't appeal to me at all. I'm not a fan of the Tag at all. I'd rather let him go than Tag him. Use the money he frees up to get other guys at positions around SOLB and play a rookie or cheap signing there until you can invest in a real player.
Draft:
Round 1 - OG -David DeCastro: I couldn't give 2 shits about common perception or common practice in terms of drafting a G in the 1st round. The guy is projected to a Pro Bowler and there may not be a more "sure thing" in the draft when you consider how well he played, where he played and what position he plays. I say may not be because transitioning at QB from college to pros is likely considered harder than doing so at G. Just a guess. 1 sack allowed in his college career.
Round 2 - CB: I'd consider a DE at this position if the right player was there or if Dallas landed solid depth CB but I think Dallas has to go so heavy on CB so they can be confident they won't see a repeat of Newman's last 6 games anytime in the future. Over that span, I'd guess he was the worst CB in the NFL and that isn't a joke or exaggeration. From week 12 on, I don't think anyone could find a CB who gave up more than Newman did. If there's one out there, or you think there's one out there let me know and I'll look him up. The 3 lowest graded CBs who played 50% or more snaps are Justin King, Ronde Barber and Sean Smith (Isn't that Slates Pet Cat?) and not a single of them were close to being as bad as Newman over the last 6 games.
Round 3 - OLB - Shea McClellin: I usually don't fall over guys who are small school players but I really like this guy. Probably biased on the matter but I don't care. He was productive, had a good combine and one of the most important things, he looks to have room to get stronger without losing any of his quickness or speed. His body composition just isn't up there with other elite guys in terms of muscle mass and body fat but if you put him in Mike Woicik's program I think he could gains strength and speed. I dunno where he's slotted to go, I've seen anywhere from 3rd - 5th round before the combine and Senior Bowl but he may just move up to the late 2nd or very early 3rd. I wouldn't mind a small move up to get him.
4th - 7th Rounds - Take Your Pick
It'd likely take a lot of money and some contract structuring that pays these guys larger portions in different years but I don't think it's out of the question that Dallas could afford these guys.
Brandon Carr: No Brainer. Hope it doesn't cost too much. Probably the most expensive signing in the bunch. Routt's cap hi this season is 6M. If KC swapped the bonuses schedule for this year and next year his cap hit would be 2M. You can really backload a contract like his because he's young and in 4 years the cost of a CB will be substantially higher. I'd get him and probably take a low, low number this year and raise it a bit next year when some dead money comes off the books. Johnathan Joseph scored 5 Years / 48M and his first year cap hit was 9.75M, largely due to a 7M base salary. With a 2.5M cap hit on his bonus, maybe you could try to keep that base salary down (if possible under the CBA) and come out with a 4M hit the first year.
Chris Myers: Best Center in the NFL over the past few years. Will probably cost a decent amount in terms of a C but that's not all that much in relative terms compared to other players. This may cost a bit but it should be one of the best value additions for the team. I think he could be signed to one of the top C contracts and still be kept at a reasonable cap number. Ryan Kalil got a recent C contract of 6 Years / 49M. His cap hit for year 1 was 4M, year 2 is 4.5M but year 3 it goes up to 9M and stays there Tennessee signed their C and payed him almost 7M in year 1 but his cap hit dropped to 4.1M last year and is at 4.6M this year. Centers typically aren't paid that much but this guy is the best C in the league or one of the best so he's gonna get his. I really don't know what he would cost.
Sione Pouha: Word is Jets can't franchise him. One of the best NTs over the last few years. Been a beast of run stopper for the last 3 seasons (Grading no worse than 4th) and has improved in his rush ability. And while his pass rush ability grade isn't really all that good, he still makes up for it and earns top overall grade for NTs last year because he was so good at stopping the run and didn't commit a penalty. Hasn't committed a penalty since getting the starting job in 2009. Also has experience in a Ryan system which means he should be able to hand the transition nicely.
Estimating what he might cost is tough because a lot of top DT/NT cap hits are guys playing in the last couple years of their ridiculously over payed rookie contracts. If you look at a guy like Wilfork, his cap hit last year was a little over 4M. Kevin Williams was at 6M last year. I don't think he's as good as either of those guys as he only has 3 career sacks and is a pure run stopper so maybe Dallas can get him for significantly less than those other guys and come out with a cap hit of like 3M.
Depth Corner: I'd have to look at who's available again. Jason Allen from Houston will probably get more than a depth CB should.
If Tim Jennings could make the transition from Chicago's Tampa 2 he would be a good depth corner. I know that transition is unlikely but Marshall played against top notch offenses all throughout the season. The Bears faced 10 Top 10 offenses last season. He was thrown at A BUNCH and only gave up 57% completion. His YPA is better than Carr's and many other players. Brent Grimes (Not Leaving ATL), Courtland Finnegan, Jason Allen and William Gay are the only guys of about 20 FA CBs that I have looked at who have a better YPA. Jennings also didn't give up a TD last year. Wouldn't touch William Gay because the Steelers played 1 Top 10 offense last year and about 8 Bottom 10 offenses.
Only problem with Jennings, he's probably earned more money from a Tampa 2 team and he may not be able to make the transition. Still though, played the 2nd most snaps of Chicago DBs behind Tillman, graded a little lower overall but had better coverage stats in just about every category. Oh, another problem. He's small. Also may be a reason why he's not there next year because Lovie Smith has said somethings about his height IIRC.
Richard Marshall from GB or Jarrett Bush from AZ could be decent guys but may cost a little more.
Getting any one of these guys to push Ball or Walker off the roster would be a big, big upgrade.
Really just got find a guy who's an upgrade and will fit in with the cap.
Re-Sign:
Robinson: I'm probably in a small minority that thinks he's a no-brainer to re-sign. I don't care why he was productive, he just works with Romo on a level that may has only been superseded by Crayton in terms of WR. Given the little time he had to get acclimated, I think he and Romo looked the most comfortable out there as the season progressed. We've talked for many seasons about getting a good #3 and now that he's here people are wanting to shoot for another guy. I don't think he'll cost that much really. Certainly not prohibitive to other moves. James Jones signed a contract for 3 years and came in under 3M for a cap hit and doesn't go over high 3M for the remainder of the contract. I can't see Robinson getting double that contract so maybe somewhere in the middle if he's extremely lucky with a 3M cap hit this year.
Carr at 4M, Pouha at 3M, Robinson at 3M and I'll just throw out 5M for the C. 15M taken in cap space. I've seen Adam say that Dallas finished 2011 with 17-18M in cap space. I don't know where that puts them to start the season but I can't imagine it will be far off.
Depending on moves above and cap space.
Basically, to make this move Dallas will need to move money around. I don't think they can have a really good offseason without doing it while keeping Spencer. Signing him long term can less the burden right now but you don't want to have too many contracts backloaded and you may have to backload a few to get all those guys signed.
Spencer: I absolutely hate it but the team seems hell bent on keeping him and the alternative of Franchising him just doesn't appeal to me at all. I'm not a fan of the Tag at all. I'd rather let him go than Tag him. Use the money he frees up to get other guys at positions around SOLB and play a rookie or cheap signing there until you can invest in a real player.
Draft:
Round 1 - OG -David DeCastro: I couldn't give 2 shits about common perception or common practice in terms of drafting a G in the 1st round. The guy is projected to a Pro Bowler and there may not be a more "sure thing" in the draft when you consider how well he played, where he played and what position he plays. I say may not be because transitioning at QB from college to pros is likely considered harder than doing so at G. Just a guess. 1 sack allowed in his college career.
Round 2 - CB: I'd consider a DE at this position if the right player was there or if Dallas landed solid depth CB but I think Dallas has to go so heavy on CB so they can be confident they won't see a repeat of Newman's last 6 games anytime in the future. Over that span, I'd guess he was the worst CB in the NFL and that isn't a joke or exaggeration. From week 12 on, I don't think anyone could find a CB who gave up more than Newman did. If there's one out there, or you think there's one out there let me know and I'll look him up. The 3 lowest graded CBs who played 50% or more snaps are Justin King, Ronde Barber and Sean Smith (Isn't that Slates Pet Cat?) and not a single of them were close to being as bad as Newman over the last 6 games.
Round 3 - OLB - Shea McClellin: I usually don't fall over guys who are small school players but I really like this guy. Probably biased on the matter but I don't care. He was productive, had a good combine and one of the most important things, he looks to have room to get stronger without losing any of his quickness or speed. His body composition just isn't up there with other elite guys in terms of muscle mass and body fat but if you put him in Mike Woicik's program I think he could gains strength and speed. I dunno where he's slotted to go, I've seen anywhere from 3rd - 5th round before the combine and Senior Bowl but he may just move up to the late 2nd or very early 3rd. I wouldn't mind a small move up to get him.
4th - 7th Rounds - Take Your Pick
