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Wes Bunting's Most Likely to Fall to the Cowboys' Pick 9
Posted by Rafael at Wednesday, March 09, 2011
In part one of this week's chat with The National Football Post's Wes Bunting, we discuss the player from the ''elite 8'' prospects he believes is most likely to fall on draft day one, where quarterbacks and receivers will land in the top 10, and which of the deep defensive linemen crop are the best fits for the Cowboys' 3-4.
Cowboys Nation: You're back from the Combine. Have you had the opportunity to discuss risers and fallers with pro personnel people?
Wes Bunting: Last week we talked about the Dallas Cowboys being in a great spot at nine, because there's eight really good football players and any one of them could fall to them. And there are two quarterbacks who could move into the top ten. Maybe a Patrick Peterson could fall. Maybe a Von Miller could fall a little.
I was trying to figure out this week which player is the most likely to drop to the bottom of the top ten and you're not going to be overly thrilled with this, but the guy who keeps coming up right now is DaQuan Bowers from Clemson.
If these people had to put money on one of the top tier guys falling, it would be Bowers. I don't think he's a great fit in a 3-4 but I could see him playing there, where maybe he puts his hand on the ground on 1st and 2nd downs and on 3rd downs you stand him up and let him rush off the edge. He's got some versatility. He's not as physically imposing as Mario Williams, but I think he's could fill the same type of role that Williams will play in Houston.
If nothing else he gives Dallas some trade down options, to move down a few picks and add another early selection, because somebody will want to come up and get DaQuan Bowers.
CN: So your sense is that DaQuan Bowers is, how shall we say it, the least firm of those top 8 guys?
WB: Right now, yeah, based on people I talk to, but he could go out at his pro day, blow it up and shuffle the order again. Right now, though, Von Miller has a ton of momentum, Dareus, Fairley, Patrick Peterson, Cam Newton, the two receivers A.J. Green and Julio Jones, it's like somebody has to fall back to the crowd.
We're not even talking Cam Jordan. I was talking to a scout the other day, who's a 3-4 team scout, and he was getting so excited. He said, '' can you imagine Cam Jordan playing 1st and 2nd down as a 5-technique, then in pass rush situations you could keep him on the 5. You could kick him inside and shade him on the nose, the way the Steelers use Ziggy Hood, and let him one-gap" His guys think Jordan is athletic enough, you could stand him up as a rush linebacker and let him rush off the edge in nickel situations.
Can you imagine a running back trying to pick up a 290 lb. linebacker who runs a 4.7? He ran a 4.7, he's a good athlete. And that's what these 3-4 teams are seeing. It's not just that he can play the 5, but what can you do with him in pass rush situations.
CN: This leads directly to the next question. I get a lot of questions about a lot of defensive linemen and some of them don't look like good fits for a 3-4 scheme. Can you take us through, say the top 2-3 rounds of ends and d-tackles and weed out guy you don't think would thrive in the 3-4?
Let's take your list, and let's start with ends.
WB: Robert Quinn is an outside linebacker in a 3-4. Aldon Smith is an outside linebacker in a 3-4 but I don't like him in a 3-4. I think he's more effective with his hand on the ground.
DaQuan Bowers? You're seeing his versatility and you want to put him at the 5, because he probably could do it, but I think he's more effective in a 4-3.
J.J. Watt is a 5-technique.
CN: Cam Jordan is a 5-technique as well....
WB: Cam Jordan can do whatever he wants, but he's a 5-technique. Christian Ballard is a 5-technique. Adrian Clayborn probably could. I think you could use him the same ways as Cam Jordan, putting his hand down and then standing him up on 3rd downs, but ideally, he's a 4-3 guy.
CN: Let's go through the DT list, starting with Fairley and Dareus. They're both 5-techniques obviously.
WB: Yeah. Nick Fairley, I wrote a piece on him today. He can play wherever he wants. Dareus could play 5-technique. I can see him playing some nose, to be honest. He's is 320. He's hard to move off the ball.
CN: I get that question a lot about nose tackles, and there's a presumption that you just sit over the center and clog up space, but I look around the league and I don't see a lot of teams, or any, which run two-gap fronts most of the time.
WB: No. Usually they're just trying to get up the field. They're not even using their hands to be honest. They're just trying to knife their way into the backfield. They play off the shoulder and sometimes they'll try to move across, but yeah, there are not too many two-gapping defensive tackles in the NFL. Unless your Chris Jenkins, one of those freaks who can just control blocks, it's tough to do.
CN: Let's go back to the list. Drake Nevis isn't a 3-4 guy, is he?
WB: No, he's strictly a 3-technique in my opinion.
CN: Stephen Paea?
WB: He's a really strong guy, but I see him as a 3-technique only as well.
CN: Corey Liuget, from Illinois?
WB: I think he's got some 5-technique capability, but I see him more as a 3-technique.
CN: Here's a guy who generates a lot of questions, Marvin Austin, from North Carolina.
WB: You know, I wrote a piece a couple of weeks ago going over the top 5 nose tackle prospects, and I put Austin on the list, just because there's not too much there. I think he's a nose in a 4-3, where he can play in a one-gap scheme and doesn't have to use his hands as much. He's got a good first step and can get up the field quickly.
Ideally, if you're not asking him to 2-gap in a 3-4 I think he's one of the better prospects. I think the 4-3 teams will think higher of him, and one of them will take him before a 3-4 team would select him, but I do think he could play on the nose.
CN: Where's a safe range to pick Marvin Austin, in your opinion?
WB: If I ran an NFL team, he wouldn't be on my draft board. There are too many character concerns. He just scares me way too much. Now, where do I think he'll be drafted? I think some team will take a shot on him in the 2nd round.
CN: Is this because the nose tackle class is so shallow?
WB: He's a really gifted defensive lineman. He's got a great build. He's talented. It's just that talented defensive linemen don't last long, no matter what they've done.
CN: Looking at his last year at North Carolina, what did you see pro and con about his game?
WB: I saw a guy who had a good first step, who had some natural power, who had natural anchor strength. He wasn't a natural pass rusher, though. Didn't use his hands real well. Wasn't real shifty when asked to change directions. And he wasn't overly instinctive.
CN: That's a scary profile to me, because he sounds like a guy who would need a year with good pro coaching to develop his hand usage and other techniques in the best of circumstances. Add that he didn't play football this year and I see an even longer learning curve. I would be wary of spending a 2nd round pick on someone like that, even a 3rd.
Let's go to the list. We've talked Phil Taylor to death. He can play on the nose, and even on the 5, so let's move on. Is Muhammad Wilkerson solidifying himself somewhere in the 30-50 range?
WB: Yeah, I think so. He's a big kid. He's 6'5'', 300 lbs. He runs well. He's long armed. He plays too high but he's got some good tape where he sheds blocks. I watched him against Penn State and I didn't think he was great. Really, I think he's better in the mid-round range, but he's got some upside and he's got some talent.
I can't see him going in the first, but I've been wrong about these things before. I think he's more of a 2nd round guy. He's a nice prospect with some upside.
CN: I'm doing this in part because I have some concerns about D-line depth. I put up a mock at the end of last week where I went off yours, where you had Patrick Peterson sliding to pick 8, and had Dallas trade up one spot to get him. If that were to happen I'm sure the Cowboys would try very hard to get him. It's an open secret that if he's not one on their board, he's no worse than maybe 2nd.
Once I pushed a corner into that spot, however, I started having trouble getting good o-line and d-line fits for the Cowboys in the 3rd. I started looking for 5-techniques at pick 71 and I was looking at guys like Marvin Austin, guys like Kendrick Ellis, guys like Lawrence Guy, who have some character concerns.
WB: In the 3rd round you can live with it a little more but yeah. I would take a longer look at Kendrick Ellis at the top of the 3rd, if you were more comfortable with him from a character standpoint. Honestly I'd like to get Ellis, Austin and Muhammad Wilkerson at the top of the 4th round, but talented D-linemen are going in the 2nd or 3rd, so you just have to pick your poison. That's how it goes.
CN: I'm looking at these weights, these pre-Combine weights, and they are almost uniformly low. Kendrick Ellis lists at 280. What's his actual weight?
WB: Those are off. The people we use for our site, we have to use their weights.
Kendrick Ellis is 340 now.
CN: 340? 3-4-0? Not 304?
WB: The guy we saw at the Texas vs. the Nation Bowl, that's a 340 lb. guy.
CN: So he's the same bulk as Phil Taylor.
WB: Yeah, he and Phil Taylor are the same size.
CN: Let's pivot to the quarterback spot, because Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton will have a lot to say about who Dallas picks, or rather their draft spots will determine who the Cowboys get to pick.
You tweeted again today about Gabbert that you've watched more tape and still see some soft spots in his game. Yet, I saw an NFL.com mock this week that put him first overall. From what you've heard, are these guys starting to build some momentum?
WB: I watched Newton's pro day again today, and wrote my notes down. He's a guy who gets overextended with his footwork. His plant leg is inconsistent. He misses so many throws. When he has to get passes out quickly in the three and five and seven stop throws? I don't think he's ever going to be overly accurate, to be honest.
You can live with it because you can move and buy you time. I think he would be a good fit for Shanahan in the Washington offense because they want to boot a lot and get their QB outside the pocket and give him a high/low read. But if you want him to be a pocket passer, you're not allowing him to play to his strengths. He's not that guy.
CN: Still, I look at the mocks and think, a lot of teams are looking for quarterbacks.
WB: I think both of them go top-10. You know how I feel. I wouldn't take either in the 1st round.
CN: But going off your information, you believe Blaine Gabbert is a top-10 guy?
WB: I talked to a guy today who told me he doesn't think Gabbert gets past Tennessee at 8.
CN: That's great for Dallas, is having Gabbert move into the top 8. What about the receivers? Are Julio Jones and A.J. Green staying in the top 10? Because that helps Dallas as well.
WB: Yeah, I'm keeping them there. I think they both go in the top 10. I've heard Julio might go first.
CN: Which teams are most likely to get them? Cincinnati and Cleveland?
WB: Yeah. I think those two look long and hard at wideouts up there.
Thursday: Part II of the chat looks at Pro Days, offensive linemen and cornerback value in later rounds.
Posted by Rafael at Wednesday, March 09, 2011
In part one of this week's chat with The National Football Post's Wes Bunting, we discuss the player from the ''elite 8'' prospects he believes is most likely to fall on draft day one, where quarterbacks and receivers will land in the top 10, and which of the deep defensive linemen crop are the best fits for the Cowboys' 3-4.
Cowboys Nation: You're back from the Combine. Have you had the opportunity to discuss risers and fallers with pro personnel people?
Wes Bunting: Last week we talked about the Dallas Cowboys being in a great spot at nine, because there's eight really good football players and any one of them could fall to them. And there are two quarterbacks who could move into the top ten. Maybe a Patrick Peterson could fall. Maybe a Von Miller could fall a little.
I was trying to figure out this week which player is the most likely to drop to the bottom of the top ten and you're not going to be overly thrilled with this, but the guy who keeps coming up right now is DaQuan Bowers from Clemson.
If these people had to put money on one of the top tier guys falling, it would be Bowers. I don't think he's a great fit in a 3-4 but I could see him playing there, where maybe he puts his hand on the ground on 1st and 2nd downs and on 3rd downs you stand him up and let him rush off the edge. He's got some versatility. He's not as physically imposing as Mario Williams, but I think he's could fill the same type of role that Williams will play in Houston.
If nothing else he gives Dallas some trade down options, to move down a few picks and add another early selection, because somebody will want to come up and get DaQuan Bowers.
CN: So your sense is that DaQuan Bowers is, how shall we say it, the least firm of those top 8 guys?
WB: Right now, yeah, based on people I talk to, but he could go out at his pro day, blow it up and shuffle the order again. Right now, though, Von Miller has a ton of momentum, Dareus, Fairley, Patrick Peterson, Cam Newton, the two receivers A.J. Green and Julio Jones, it's like somebody has to fall back to the crowd.
We're not even talking Cam Jordan. I was talking to a scout the other day, who's a 3-4 team scout, and he was getting so excited. He said, '' can you imagine Cam Jordan playing 1st and 2nd down as a 5-technique, then in pass rush situations you could keep him on the 5. You could kick him inside and shade him on the nose, the way the Steelers use Ziggy Hood, and let him one-gap" His guys think Jordan is athletic enough, you could stand him up as a rush linebacker and let him rush off the edge in nickel situations.
Can you imagine a running back trying to pick up a 290 lb. linebacker who runs a 4.7? He ran a 4.7, he's a good athlete. And that's what these 3-4 teams are seeing. It's not just that he can play the 5, but what can you do with him in pass rush situations.
CN: This leads directly to the next question. I get a lot of questions about a lot of defensive linemen and some of them don't look like good fits for a 3-4 scheme. Can you take us through, say the top 2-3 rounds of ends and d-tackles and weed out guy you don't think would thrive in the 3-4?
Let's take your list, and let's start with ends.
WB: Robert Quinn is an outside linebacker in a 3-4. Aldon Smith is an outside linebacker in a 3-4 but I don't like him in a 3-4. I think he's more effective with his hand on the ground.
DaQuan Bowers? You're seeing his versatility and you want to put him at the 5, because he probably could do it, but I think he's more effective in a 4-3.
J.J. Watt is a 5-technique.
CN: Cam Jordan is a 5-technique as well....
WB: Cam Jordan can do whatever he wants, but he's a 5-technique. Christian Ballard is a 5-technique. Adrian Clayborn probably could. I think you could use him the same ways as Cam Jordan, putting his hand down and then standing him up on 3rd downs, but ideally, he's a 4-3 guy.
CN: Let's go through the DT list, starting with Fairley and Dareus. They're both 5-techniques obviously.
WB: Yeah. Nick Fairley, I wrote a piece on him today. He can play wherever he wants. Dareus could play 5-technique. I can see him playing some nose, to be honest. He's is 320. He's hard to move off the ball.
CN: I get that question a lot about nose tackles, and there's a presumption that you just sit over the center and clog up space, but I look around the league and I don't see a lot of teams, or any, which run two-gap fronts most of the time.
WB: No. Usually they're just trying to get up the field. They're not even using their hands to be honest. They're just trying to knife their way into the backfield. They play off the shoulder and sometimes they'll try to move across, but yeah, there are not too many two-gapping defensive tackles in the NFL. Unless your Chris Jenkins, one of those freaks who can just control blocks, it's tough to do.
CN: Let's go back to the list. Drake Nevis isn't a 3-4 guy, is he?
WB: No, he's strictly a 3-technique in my opinion.
CN: Stephen Paea?
WB: He's a really strong guy, but I see him as a 3-technique only as well.
CN: Corey Liuget, from Illinois?
WB: I think he's got some 5-technique capability, but I see him more as a 3-technique.
CN: Here's a guy who generates a lot of questions, Marvin Austin, from North Carolina.
WB: You know, I wrote a piece a couple of weeks ago going over the top 5 nose tackle prospects, and I put Austin on the list, just because there's not too much there. I think he's a nose in a 4-3, where he can play in a one-gap scheme and doesn't have to use his hands as much. He's got a good first step and can get up the field quickly.
Ideally, if you're not asking him to 2-gap in a 3-4 I think he's one of the better prospects. I think the 4-3 teams will think higher of him, and one of them will take him before a 3-4 team would select him, but I do think he could play on the nose.
CN: Where's a safe range to pick Marvin Austin, in your opinion?
WB: If I ran an NFL team, he wouldn't be on my draft board. There are too many character concerns. He just scares me way too much. Now, where do I think he'll be drafted? I think some team will take a shot on him in the 2nd round.
CN: Is this because the nose tackle class is so shallow?
WB: He's a really gifted defensive lineman. He's got a great build. He's talented. It's just that talented defensive linemen don't last long, no matter what they've done.
CN: Looking at his last year at North Carolina, what did you see pro and con about his game?
WB: I saw a guy who had a good first step, who had some natural power, who had natural anchor strength. He wasn't a natural pass rusher, though. Didn't use his hands real well. Wasn't real shifty when asked to change directions. And he wasn't overly instinctive.
CN: That's a scary profile to me, because he sounds like a guy who would need a year with good pro coaching to develop his hand usage and other techniques in the best of circumstances. Add that he didn't play football this year and I see an even longer learning curve. I would be wary of spending a 2nd round pick on someone like that, even a 3rd.
Let's go to the list. We've talked Phil Taylor to death. He can play on the nose, and even on the 5, so let's move on. Is Muhammad Wilkerson solidifying himself somewhere in the 30-50 range?
WB: Yeah, I think so. He's a big kid. He's 6'5'', 300 lbs. He runs well. He's long armed. He plays too high but he's got some good tape where he sheds blocks. I watched him against Penn State and I didn't think he was great. Really, I think he's better in the mid-round range, but he's got some upside and he's got some talent.
I can't see him going in the first, but I've been wrong about these things before. I think he's more of a 2nd round guy. He's a nice prospect with some upside.
CN: I'm doing this in part because I have some concerns about D-line depth. I put up a mock at the end of last week where I went off yours, where you had Patrick Peterson sliding to pick 8, and had Dallas trade up one spot to get him. If that were to happen I'm sure the Cowboys would try very hard to get him. It's an open secret that if he's not one on their board, he's no worse than maybe 2nd.
Once I pushed a corner into that spot, however, I started having trouble getting good o-line and d-line fits for the Cowboys in the 3rd. I started looking for 5-techniques at pick 71 and I was looking at guys like Marvin Austin, guys like Kendrick Ellis, guys like Lawrence Guy, who have some character concerns.
WB: In the 3rd round you can live with it a little more but yeah. I would take a longer look at Kendrick Ellis at the top of the 3rd, if you were more comfortable with him from a character standpoint. Honestly I'd like to get Ellis, Austin and Muhammad Wilkerson at the top of the 4th round, but talented D-linemen are going in the 2nd or 3rd, so you just have to pick your poison. That's how it goes.
CN: I'm looking at these weights, these pre-Combine weights, and they are almost uniformly low. Kendrick Ellis lists at 280. What's his actual weight?
WB: Those are off. The people we use for our site, we have to use their weights.
Kendrick Ellis is 340 now.
CN: 340? 3-4-0? Not 304?
WB: The guy we saw at the Texas vs. the Nation Bowl, that's a 340 lb. guy.
CN: So he's the same bulk as Phil Taylor.
WB: Yeah, he and Phil Taylor are the same size.
CN: Let's pivot to the quarterback spot, because Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton will have a lot to say about who Dallas picks, or rather their draft spots will determine who the Cowboys get to pick.
You tweeted again today about Gabbert that you've watched more tape and still see some soft spots in his game. Yet, I saw an NFL.com mock this week that put him first overall. From what you've heard, are these guys starting to build some momentum?
WB: I watched Newton's pro day again today, and wrote my notes down. He's a guy who gets overextended with his footwork. His plant leg is inconsistent. He misses so many throws. When he has to get passes out quickly in the three and five and seven stop throws? I don't think he's ever going to be overly accurate, to be honest.
You can live with it because you can move and buy you time. I think he would be a good fit for Shanahan in the Washington offense because they want to boot a lot and get their QB outside the pocket and give him a high/low read. But if you want him to be a pocket passer, you're not allowing him to play to his strengths. He's not that guy.
CN: Still, I look at the mocks and think, a lot of teams are looking for quarterbacks.
WB: I think both of them go top-10. You know how I feel. I wouldn't take either in the 1st round.
CN: But going off your information, you believe Blaine Gabbert is a top-10 guy?
WB: I talked to a guy today who told me he doesn't think Gabbert gets past Tennessee at 8.
CN: That's great for Dallas, is having Gabbert move into the top 8. What about the receivers? Are Julio Jones and A.J. Green staying in the top 10? Because that helps Dallas as well.
WB: Yeah, I'm keeping them there. I think they both go in the top 10. I've heard Julio might go first.
CN: Which teams are most likely to get them? Cincinnati and Cleveland?
WB: Yeah. I think those two look long and hard at wideouts up there.
Thursday: Part II of the chat looks at Pro Days, offensive linemen and cornerback value in later rounds.