Vegas over/under is 9.5 wins this year, what say you?

[theoneandonly]

 

[Doomsday]

I'm in for 7 or 8 at the outside. Nine or more would be a surprise.

 

[theoneandonly]

Gun to my head I am at 9.

 

[MrB]

I'll go with the over. I'm thinking 10-12 wins.

 

[Scot]

I'm at 10 right now. That may or may not change as the injuries and dumbass suspensions continue to add up

 

[dbair1967]

Need Prescott and Elliott for 16 games, but team seems set up to win 10+ to me.

That said, the last time we had back to back seasons with 10+ wins was 1995/1996.

Yes folks, it's REALLY been THAT long. Jimmy's teams in 1991 started a run of 3 straight years with 11+ wins, Switzer then had a run of 3 seasons with at least 10. Under Landry, starting in 1966 the team won 10+ games 16 times in 20 years, and one of the seasons they didn't win 10+ was the strike season of 1982.

 

[English Cowboy]

Under Landry, starting in 1966 the team won 10+ games 16 times in 20 years, and one of the seasons they didn't win 10+ was the strike season of 1982.

And 2 of the others were when the NFL only had 14 game seasons (9-5 in 1967 and 8-6 in 1974).

I predict 9-7. 6th seed. Get hot in the playoffs, win 3 straight on the road. Lose close Superbowl to Stealers after a late Garrett brain fart.

 

[ThoughtExperiment]

At least 10, maybe 11. Probably not 13 again.

 

[bbgun]

Gun to my head I am at 9.

ditto. we always underwhelm in seasons where fans expect great things or "taking it to the next level"

 

[spiderfan_MJ]

However many wins it takes to make the playoffs. The division is so inconsistent I don't know how many that would be.

 

[theoneandonly]

after a late Garrett brain fart.

Eh, you wont have to wait til late for that. The self inflicted wounds rear their ugly head constantly when you are the smartest guy in the room.

 

[Doomsday]

However many wins it takes to make the playoffs. The division is so inconsistent I don't know how many that would be.

You can win the division with four wins. That not only gets you in the playoffs, but guarantees you a home game as well.

But your point is well taken - the East really is a mediocre division. Has three teams which on any given year can be 13-3 or 4-12.

 

[theoneandonly]

ditto. we always underwhelm in seasons where fans expect great things or "taking it to the next level"

Garrett has no next level. After 7 years on the job training, the next level is still incompetence, much like his boss.

 

[cmd34]

Worst case is this defense will hurt us, best (realistic) case is it will take them a few games to figure things out. This offense is really good though so I'm thinking 9-7 or 10-6 BUT still making the playoffs. No pass rush and an unproven secondary is a huge misstep by this FO and hopefully it isn't a waste of Dak's and Zeke's young careers.

 

[Doomsday]

Worst case is this defense will hurt us, best (realistic) case is it will take them a few games to figure things out. This offense is really good though so I'm thinking 9-7 or 10-6 BUT still making the playoffs. No pass rush and an unproven secondary is a huge misstep by this FO and hopefully it isn't a waste of Dak's and Zeke's young careers.

On the other hand, it will take some time for opposing OC's to get the hang of all the new personnel on this pretty much new defense. Unfortunately, around week 11 that's a done deal.

 

[cmd34]

Ehh, offenses usually don't work like that. They test you until you prove to them they shouldn't. No one is going to avoid our guys.

 

[Doomsday]

Ehh, offenses usually don't work like that. They test you until you prove to them they shouldn't. No one is going to avoid our guys.

No I don't think anyone's going to avoid them at all, in fact they will try to pick on them. BUT, they don't know the tendencies of these guys yet, don't know the best way to attack them. Will be risking some picks in finding out, early in the season until they figure out tendencies. Football is all about tendencies.

 

[Omegasupreme]

Ehh, offenses usually don't work like that. They test you until you prove to them they shouldn't. No one is going to avoid our guys.

Actually to both of your points,I think we will see a stronger push to insulate and protect the young players by Marinelli like Linehan did with Dak for the first 12 games, and we will see some effective scheming and coaching. The result theoretically could be an unknown quantity for teams facing them which, in the NFL, usually a strength - an element of surprise. The likelihood of the new DBs being immediately better than their predecessors is low. But since the D-line is much better now (Collins in second year, Paea, Thornton, and then whoever steps up from the draft/Demontre Moore), and Scandrick/Brown/Carroll/Byron Jones are all vets, it's not like Marinelli has a starting point that is close to zero. I think Nzeocha is better than Wilson. Jourdan Lewis is a better cover corner than Claiborne. Awuzie could actually play safety and LB if needed. I would feel a lot better about the defense if they picked up another vet LB but there is a chance that the combination of safe scheming and coaching could surprise teams that might be expecting "a Marinelli" defense that they have seen on film or in games in the past.
Linehan almost completely buried the Garrett 1-9 Vanilla 12 and 10 personnel nonsense under read option/high percentage, three steps and misdirection routes which for several weeks made Beasley the 5th best WR in the league. Then as the season devolved from being effective to being dumb, Linehan had to dig up the old playbook.

 

[Doomsday]

The likelihood of the new DBs being immediately better than their predecessors is low.

If they're getting picks at all, they're immediately better. It's not like that bar is in any way high. Our secondary SUCKED the last many years, really since Woody retired if you want to know the truth. But like you later pointed out, we've upgraded over Claiborne and Wilson. Might be more such upgrades that aren't patently obvious at this early stage.

I think I might have been misunderstood initially - I don't in any way expect NFL offenses to shy away from our rookie Legion of Noobs - I just think the Noobs are going to get some pick chances because OC's don't know what they're attacking yet. Just like what happened with Cubby his rookie season.

 

[cmd34]

Actually to both of your points,I think we will see a stronger push to insulate and protect the young players by Marinelli like Linehan did with Dak for the first 12 games, and we will see some effective scheming and coaching. The result theoretically could be an unknown quantity for teams facing them which, in the NFL, usually a strength - an element of surprise. The likelihood of the new DBs being immediately better than their predecessors is low. But since the D-line is much better now (Collins in second year, Paea, Thornton, and then whoever steps up from the draft/Demontre Moore), and Scandrick/Brown/Carroll/Byron Jones are all vets, it's not like Marinelli has a starting point that is close to zero. I think Nzeocha is better than Wilson. Jourdan Lewis is a better cover corner than Claiborne. Awuzie could actually play safety and LB if needed. I would feel a lot better about the defense if they picked up another vet LB but there is a chance that the combination of safe scheming and coaching could surprise teams that might be expecting "a Marinelli" defense that they have seen on film or in games in the past.
Linehan almost completely buried the Garrett 1-9 Vanilla 12 and 10 personnel nonsense under read option/high percentage, three steps and misdirection routes which for several weeks made Beasley the 5th best WR in the league. Then as the season devolved from being effective to being dumb, Linehan had to dig up the old playbook.

It's really hard to protect or hide players on defense.

Offense is about tendencies, defense is schematic. These guys aren't going to know the scheme as well as the last guys, so all Marinelli can really do for them is dumb it down and the complex offenses are just going to exploit us.

What we might actually be on defense is more physical and more athletic.

We still have a lot of weaknesses. They are hoping Heath can be an every down safety. They are hoping Marinelli can will the D Line to put pressure on QBs. They are hoping the young CBs are ready to cover NFL WRs. They are hoping Jaylon Smith is the guy he was in college. They are hoping Charles Tapper is an impact player.

Awuzie is going to be good, just not sure he will be ready to go from day one. Taco at RE is not really his strength. I fear he will look average there. We will miss Irving those first four games. Scandrick is going to start regressing. They ask an awful lot of Byron Jones. So many questions on defense.

The only real questions on offense are: who will be the 5th O Linemen? Will Dak have a sophomore slump? Is Jason Witten immortal?