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Turning Three 1st-Rounders Into Two?
by Rafael

The cost of the Dez Bryant trade?
Chasing big-bling wide receivers has been the bane of Jerry Jones' tenure. Cowboys followers can recite the putrid returns from his Joey Galloway and Roy Williams trades by rote. Two years ago, Dallas sacrificed its 3rd round pick to secure another high-risk receiver, and may have hamstrung itself again.

Dallas entered the 2010 draft in the 27th spot. Rumors of the Cowboys willingness to pick the controversial Bryant, whom some teams had crossed of their lists, leaked early. As the first round evolved, Bryant dropped into the early 20s. By the time the Patriots pick at 24 rolled around, the Cowboys board looked like this:

1-10: Mike Iuputi *gone
1-11: Earl Thomas *gone
1-12: Dez Bryant
1-13: Bryan Bulaga *gone
1-14: Sean Lee
1-15: Jared Odrick
1-16: Jason Pierre-Paul *gone
1-17: Derrick Morgan *gone
1-18: Kyle Wilson
1-19: Maurkice Pouncey *gone
1-20: NaVorro Bowman

Dallas, it emerged in the draft's aftermath, had targeted the trio of Iupati, Thomas and Bryant, the 10th, 11th and 12th players on their boards. Rumors of a potential deal with Miami early on draft day had swirled all afternoon, with Thomas as the target. The deal fizzled, and the Seahawks grabbed the Texas safety with the 14th pick. The 49ers took Iupati at pick 17.

Dallas was three picks away from their last top target, but were concerned that the Baltimore Ravens could pick Bryant in the 25th spot. Hence, the Patriots deal.

Who might have the Cowboys drafted had they stood still? How about Dez Bryant? The Ravens claimed they would not have taken Bryant in that slot, but they traded down into the early 2nd, and selected DE Sergio Kindle when they came on the board. Baltimore was the only team in the running to pick Bryant in that position. Had they indeed passed, Jerry might have gotten his man.

Had this scenario played out, here's how that 3rd round pick could have gone:

Pick 90 -- Patriots (from Dallas) Taylor Price, WR, Ohio
Pick 91 -- 49ers: NaVorro Bowman, LB, Penn State

The Cowboys pick their board. Had they seen Bowman, their 20th ranked player, at pick 90, the Cowboys would have grabbed him with both hands. Dallas could have emerged from round 3 with three players it rated as 1st rounders. Pro Football Focus today named Bowman its top rated inside linebacker in 2011. He's been a superb sidekick for Patrick Willis.

Had Bryant gone to Baltimore? The Cowboys still would have come away with Bowman in the 2nd, after selecting Lee at 27.

In either case, the Cowboys come out with two outstanding young inside linebackers and they have a 3rd pick. In the "lucky'' scenario, that player is still Bryant.

I'm not going to say Dallas lost on the deal. I'm running on 20-20 hindsight here. Dallas had no idea that either Lee or Bowman would be around in rounds 2 and 3 and did what it could in the first to secure the top player left on its board. Bryant's skills are obvious. He has battled minor injuries and has been a flashy, but inconsistent player. He may break out this fall and reward Dallas' boldness.

I can say with some confidence that the Cowboys won't be so cavalier with a 3rd round pick this spring. The team felt then its talent base was close to completion. After 6-10 and 8-8 seasons, it's clear Dallas needs 7-8 more hits to become a legitimate contender. The Cowboys will use every pick they have.​
 

dbair1967

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Hindsight is always 20-20

You can do this for every pick for every team.

You also never know who behind you will move up and nab someone (ie, Max Unger with Seattle a few seasons ago)
 
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