The never-ending POTUS Election thread....

[Hoofbite]

Yeah but all that said, he's still bluffing. He's not in this to do anything except win, I believe.

He can't win anything if he doesn't win the nomination. That's the whole point. He doesn't think they'll give him the nomination regardless of whether or not he's leading because they don't want him in the race.

They probably don't think they can win with him, but if he were to go independent the Republicans wouldn't win the election. As it currently stands, 68% of his supporters say they would follow him. 30% of the party supports him. Is there any conceivable way the Republicans could win the election if reality turned out to be anywhere close to those numbers? Absolutely not. What percentage of the Republican vote can be lost and yet not cost them the election? Not that I think it would be anywhere near that high but those percentages work out to 1/5 Republican voters moving to Independent.

If it was 1/10, that would be 6M less votes based off last elections turnout.

If it was 1/20, it would be 3M less votes.

Even at 1/50, we're still talking about over 1M votes - which is 2% of the total number of votes - for the Republican Party.

He may be in it to win, but he's not going to win anything if he's not in the game. And that's the whole point. He wouldn't need to bluff if he didn't think they were going to sidestep him. Why would he bluff if he felt he will get the nomination?

He's leveraging his support into a "least worst" option for the Republican Party. You can go at it with me and have a chance, or you can go with someone else and watching another Democrat get elected"

I can even predict the first thing he'd say when announcing his split from the party, "misery loves company", and he'd smile and tell shot callers in the GOP that they brought this upon themselves.

 

[Doomsday]

He can't win anything if he doesn't win the nomination. That's the whole point. He doesn't think they'll give him the nomination regardless of whether or not he's leading because they don't want him in the race.

They can't just tell the delegates how to vote.

He's leveraging his support into a "least worst" option for the Republican Party. You can go at it with me and have a chance, or you can go with someone else and watching another Democrat get elected"

And, that's the bluff.

 

[Midswat]

 

[Sheik]

Trump 2016!!!!

wOOt!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Sheik]

Basically I'm hoping for two things right now.

1. Trump wins nomination and is embraced by a reluctant GOP.

2. Trump gets fucked over by the GOP, runs 3rd party, totally fucks over GOP in the process.

I'm fed up with listening to the elites talk about what a disaster he'll be for the GOP. It's almost a slap in the face of American voters. Look, I'm not saying he'd be a great president. He might be a disaster. I'll take my chances with a guy that says what's on his mind, hurt feelings be damned. I don't feel like we need another party president on either side that only says what people think they want to hear, then bows down for 4-8 years to big business and special interests.

If this country is going to go to complete shit, I'd rather enjoy the ride as much as possible. Fuck it.

 

[bbgun]

Hillary might win anyway (shudder), but you're guaranteeing her victory if you try to wrest away a nomination that was won fair and square. If that happens, Trump will either run as an Independent or his voters will stay home if he doesn't. either way, that's doomsday for the GOP.

 

[Sheik]

Exactly.

I'd rather see the GOP die than let them hand pick these corporate douchbags to just push the same ole shit along.

Let Hillary and the Dems burn the country down. 12-16 years of these liberal idiots spells certain doom, imo.

 

[Hoofbite]

They can't just tell the delegates how to vote.

Would they have to? They're already hand chosen by the party.

And, that's the bluff.

It's only a bluff if you think he would take being screwed over lying down. You have to believe he cares more about the party than he does his own interests which is far-fetched, IMO.

 

[Midswat]

Did anything interesting happen in the debate last night?

 

[dbair1967]

Did anything interesting happen in the debate last night?

Trump probably sealed the deal, good performance by him it seems is the consensus. Trump also committed again to staying in R party.

I thought Cruz had another good night. Him and Rubio really went after each other. Christie I think did well again.

Hopefully at least 3 or 4 of these people get out after last night. There's one more debate I think before Iowa, we don't need 9 people up there.

 

[Midswat]

A guy who follows this stuff more closely than I said Trump will likely take Cruz as his running mate.

 

[VTA]

I’ll admit going entirely upon what I’d read, up to this point I found myself thinking Trump has some good ideas and maybe the right mindset, and maybe what this country needs as a President. But sound-bytes and quotes in articles can form an image of someone that isn’t really who they are. It was my first time seeing Trump in a debate, and I have to say, he’s not fit to be President. He’s really sort of childish and unnecessarily abrupt. Making faces and calling the moderators unfair. He is truly one more step in the direction of Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho. It can only go down hill from there.

None of the frontrunners answered a question straight on, which is entirely typical. Instead they take the bait and throw jabs at each other, hand out ambiguous policy ideas and give endless anecdotes for any and every possible situation.

The mods were obviously trying to make this the Cruz/Rubio show, giving them the brunt of the attention, while barely acknowledging the lower rungs, which on one level is understandable, but the fact is some of them are in that position because they’re rarely given equal air time by a new media that wants to influence voter opinion. Of the two I’d trust Cruz and as a matter of fact don’t trust Rubio period.

The most impressive were the least acknowledged. Fiorina gave straight forward, concise answers without dancing around the english language. She’s smart and she acted like a professional. Good for her, for whatever that’s worth with such low numbers. Paul, whether his ideas can be implemented or not, at least has them and states what they are. He doesn’t use talking points and slight of hand language to run an end-around when questioned. These two may not be Presidential, but they’re more focused and serious about what they believe than the horse and pony show the others provide.

Gov Christie is straight forward and at least gives direct answers, though only after repetitiously trying to link himself to 9/11. He wasn’t even governor at that time and considering 9/11 would be categorized as national security failure, no one should be trying to ride that event as vehicle to show themselves as a strong candidate. There were no heroes on 9/11.

Jeb. Go home.Your surname is enough to turn everybody off, but your bottled policy talking points wouldn’t convince a 12 YO.

Carson is likable, entirely. And after usually a small preamble, he at least answered the question asked.

Kasich is so unremarkable, that…

 

[ThoughtExperiment]

Good post VTA. I didn't watch it but saw some of the Trump exchange with Jeb. Trump has some positive qualities and some good ideas, and I like that he's not PC. But he's too much of a caricature and loose cannon. For one thing, not sure I want this guy having access to the nuclear football.

 

[VTA]

Good post VTA. I didn't watch it but saw some of the Trump exchange with Jeb. Trump has some positive qualities and some good ideas, and I like that he's not PC. But he's too much of a caricature and loose cannon. For one thing, not sure I want this guy having access to the nuclear football.

He gave a very odd-ball response when questioned about our nuclear triad... " I think -- I think, for me, nuclear is just the power, the devastation is very important to me." :wtf I don't think he'd ever heard that term before.

 

[Midswat]

F you guys. Trump is the real deal.

 

[VTA]

 

[bbgun]

not sure I want this guy having access to the nuclear football

If Jerry can own an NFL team and be GM, then ...

 

[Doomsday]

It was my first time seeing Trump in a debate, and I have to say, he’s not fit to be President. He’s really sort of childish and unnecessarily abrupt. Making faces and calling the moderators unfair. He is truly one more step in the direction of Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho. It can only go down hill from there.

He's the amiable drunk at the bar, ranting and raving and carrying on about this or that. Saying some things you laugh at, some you think about and some you just ignore. He is fun to be with at the bar while the drinks are flowing - but none would let him drive their car home. Plus I hope we're not pretending Trump isn't a Statist - because clearly he is. Each and every one of his "solutions" involves bigger, more intrusive government.

 

[VTA]

He's the amiable drunk at the bar, ranting and raving and carrying on about this or that. Saying some things you laugh at, some you think about and some you just ignore. He is fun to be with at the bar while the drinks are flowing - but none would let him drive their car home. Plus I hope we're not pretending Trump isn't a Statist - because clearly he is. Each and every one of his "solutions" involves bigger, more intrusive government.

He's market savvy enough to know the angle he needs to sell himself to an exhausted country, tired of watching a limp-dick president sell them out to multi-cultural/multi-national fanatics. You're right; in the end his solutions will be magically found in instituting more gub'ment.

He'd probably get Hilary elected by being the nominee. The fence sitters would have their minds made up for them and his detractors wouldn't even bother voting or tossing their vote on the independent trash heap, leaving her to promise another 4 (at least) years of this awful, inept governance we've had for the last 8.

The election is a long time off, the debate will probably look completely different in 7 months.

 

[peplaw06]

I didn't watch the debate, and only occasionally get interested in anything going on with the Repubs at this point...

That said, one of the big knocks on Cruz used to be that he made outlandish statements that turned people off. Trump has come in and made him look more reasonable. Cruz can now say those things and no one bats an eye because it's buried in the lead of Trump.

Eventually, that turns more people off, and I don't think people will be voting for Trump in the numbers we see in the polls right now. I suspect Cruz may be the one to swoop in and be the more "presidential" candidate and win the primary.

I think Paul has the best ideas, but he's just not getting the pub or poll numbers that these two guys are.