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Shock Treatment

Spagnola: Two Troubling Indicators Most Surprising

Mickey Spagnola
DallasCowboys.com Columnist


IRVING, Texas - OK, the record is shocking, 3-8. And for you, guessing all quite depressing, too. Granted.

But here is what is most surprising to me, two key factors leading to a record the Cowboys haven't been saddled with since 2001, nine seasons ago, and worse, a loss on Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts away from having their worst record (3-9) at the 12-game point of a season since 1-15 in 1989, all quite frightening.

First, the running game. They have been grounded, nearly on pace for unprecedented futility, or at least dating back to 1989, that 1-15 inaugural season of Jerry and Jimmy ranking as the second worst in the Cowboys' 51-year history.

Next, the third-down defense. The Cowboys can't seem to get off the field with any regularity, especially of late, with opposing offenses converting at percentages rising toward, yes, 1989 proportions.

That bad.

To put some of this mediocrity into better context, let's just go back to last season, not all that long ago when the Cowboys' fast-break finish led to that 11-5 record, playoff victory over the Philadelphia Eagles and contract extension for Wade Phillips. In light of this year, getting off to that 1-7 start, 2009 seems eons ago.

We start with the running game. The Cowboys were quite productive last year, ranking seventh in the NFL with 2,103 yards rushing (131.4 a game), their most yards rushing since the 2001 season (2,184) and second most since 1995 (2,201). And let's not try to minimize last year's numbers by saying, oh, the Cowboys were running so much more because, look, they were averaging 4.82 yards a carry, OK?

And this third-down business, the Cowboys were pretty decent last year, allowing opponents to convert third downs into firsts just 35 percent of the time, ranking them fifth best in the NFL.

But now, good gosh, talk about depressed production. The housing market has nothing on the Cowboys in these two categories. Unless something significant happens over these last five games, and starting at 3:15 p.m. Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium, the Cowboys will be approaching record lows in each category, or at least since … 1989.

That bad.

So let's fast-forward to this year's running game. In 11 games the Cowboys have rushed for 983 yards, or 89.4 yards a game. That ranks 27th in the NFL, a major drop from last year. But here is the scary part. The Cowboys are on pace to rush for just 1,429 yards, the second fewest for a 16-game season in club history and perilously close to setting a franchise low, established in, yes, 1989, at 1,409yards, or 88 a game.

Why, the Cowboys have gone from averaging 132.7 yards a game last year to just 89.4 this season. And please, let's not give this part of the offense a soft pillow to rests its head on by saying, well, the Cowboys just don't run the ball enough. Phooey. They average just 3.8 yards a carry, a full yard less than last year.

And you know what's even more frightening when talking about this running game? The Cowboys have just six rushing touchdowns, so on pace for 8.7 this year, which would just sneak by the franchise low of six back in 1997. But, here's adding a double-fisted insult to injury: The Cowboys running backs own only four of these six rushing touchdowns, and not one of them - Felix Jones, Marion Barber nor Tashard Choice - has a touchdown run of more than one yard.

Let that sink in: Not a rushing touchdown by a running back further than three feet from the goal line. Get out of here! Might be the 11th wonder of the world the Cowboys have actually won three games and that six of their eight losses are by no more than seven points.

So why the dysfunctional running game? Insufficient blocking comes immediately to mind, the offensive line and fullback positions for starters. Then maybe wasting carries on Marion Barber, ruled out of Sunday's game with a calf injury. He's averaging just 3.1 yards on 102 carries, and has developed this irritating tendency of trying to bounce plays outside instead of cutting them up field, the reason why he failed on that fourth-and-one play against the Saints. The hole was there.

Now head coach Jason Garrett points out "we've run a little bit better the last few weeks," and he's right, the Cowboys rushing for a season-high 144 yards against the Saints. But a lot of that had to do with Miles Austin's 60-yard end-around gotcha-play for a touchdown against the Saints and quarterback Jon Kitna's 29-yard throwback scramble for a touchdown against the Lions, the only touchdown runs longer than a yard this season for the Cowboys.

So Garrett knows how important controlling the ball will be against the Colts, saying, "You want to control the football, execute in the run game and execute in the passing game" if you hope to keep Peyton Manning off the field.

We'll see.

Now for this third-down defense stuff. Opposing offenses are converting third downs into firsts 42.4 percent of the time. That ranks the Cowboys 26th in the NFL. Last year they were seventh. Again, and to put this in historical context, you have to go back to 1989 to find the worst percentage since Cowboys owner Jerry Jones came aboard, 46.3 percent. After that, it's 44.9 in 1995, strangely enough during the 12-4, Super Bowl season, and then 43.9 in 2006, Bill's final season. And those years account for three of the five seasons the conversion rate rose into the 40-percentile the past 22 years.

So the Cowboys are dangerously close to those low points.

Worse, this number has been trending upward. Over the past five games, here are the opponents' third-down conversion percentages: Jacksonville 50 percent, Green Bay 66.7 percent, the Giants 40 percent, Detroit 55.6 percent and New Orleans 46.7 percent.

If you add 'em up, those five opponents have converted at a grand total of 59 percent (44 of 74), which is ridiculously high if you consider like 35 percent is acceptable for a defense, 30 is good and anything under is really good.

Plus, get this: Of those 44 third-down conversions over the past five games, 23 of those plays have gone for at least 10 yards, and that includes pass completions of 33 yards, 58 yards and Thanksgiving Day's backbreaking 55-yarder to Robert Meacham on the Saints' winning touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter. In fact, of the 74 third-down plays over the past five games, the Cowboys have yielded 529 yards, or 7.2 yards per play.

Way too much.

And now they have to face the other Manning, or maybe that should be the Manning.

"You don't want to give the Indianapolis Colts too many opportunities," Cowboys defensive coordinator Paul Pasqualoni says. "You've got to be good on third down."

No kidding, and by the way, don't be breathing too big a sigh of relief knowing tight end Dallas Clark is on injured reserve. The guy taking his place, Jacob Tamme, in five starts has caught 38 passes for 369 yards and three touchdowns. Not a good time for linebacker Keith Brooking to be questionable with a sprained foot, heading to Indy questionable and still in a walking boot for relief.

So Pasqualoni says the Cowboys must be "good on third down" and Garrett knows the Cowboys must control the ball to keep Manning off the field, which means throwing out an effective running game, if they are to have a chance of keeping a potential .500 season alive and avoiding another "worst since 1989."

Trouble is, the Cowboys, especially when compared to last season, have been shockingly bad at both.
 

sbk92

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I usually don't post his stuff but this one had to be read.

Wow, are we bad.
 

sbk92

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11 games into the season and no back has scored a rushing TD from farther than a yard out.

Wow/wait/what?!
 
C

Cr122

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Well, a lot of good points.

You can't be a playoff contender without a solid running game. We don't have that.

Our offensive line has been like this for a few years now, and our dumbass owner/GM/coach/doctor thinks it was one of our strongest positions on our team. lol

And as far as third downs, it's what breaks the Camel's back when you can't stop teams on third downs, especially when they're third and long. Embarrassing.

Change the offensive line, draft another Safety and Corner and in a couple of years we could win a Super Bowl. And we also need more speed at the ILB position. I was hoping Sean Lee was the answer there, but I'm not so sure yet.
 
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