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Gosselin: Cowboys rookie DE DeMarcus Lawrence expects 10-plus sacks? Don't count on it
OXNARD, Calif. — The second round is the tease round when it comes to NFL pass rushers.
Too often they look better than they really are.
The Cowboys hope that’s not the case with DeMarcus Lawrence. They need their second-round pick out of Boise State to be more than a factor this fall. They need him to become a force.
The Cowboys managed only 34 sacks last season, finishing 25th in the league. The fewer times you sack the quarterback, the less your chances for success. Seven of the top 10 sack teams qualified for the postseason in 2014, including Super Bowl champion Seattle. Only one of the bottom 10 teams qualified.
The departures of Pro Bowl tackle Jason Hatcher in free agency and end DeMarcus Ware as a salary-cap casualty have stripped the Cowboys’ pass rush of half its sacks from a year ago. Hatcher took his 11 to the Washington Redskins and Ware his six to the Denver Broncos.
The Cowboys hope to replace Hatcher with free agent Henry Melton and Ware with Lawrence. The Cowboys will need a combined 17 sacks from the two newcomers just to break even on last year.
Melton has never had more than seven sacks in a season in his four-year career. That would mean asking Lawrence to produce double figures as a rookie to get back those missing 17 sacks.
Lawrence had good moments and bad in his opening weekend of NFL contact — with the bad moments coming primarily when he lined up in drills against Pro Bowl tackle Tyron Smith. Still, Lawrence said during the opening week of camp he expects to get 10-plus sacks this season.
Don’t count on it.
The NFL knows where to find the best edge pass rushers — the first round. High in the first round. That’s why South Carolina’s Jadeveon Clowney was the first overall pick of the draft and why the NFL’s all-time leading sacker Bruce Smith was the first overall pick of his draft.
Hall of Famers Lawrence Taylor, Derrick Thomas and Chris Doleman plus Pro Bowlers Cornelius Bennett, Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, Terrell Suggs, J.J. Watt, Aldon Smith and Ware all arrived in the NFL in the first dozen picks of their respective drafts.
There’s a premium on the pass rush. The good ones don’t last long. If they are still around in the second round, there’s a reason. They either lack a measurable — height, weight or speed — or their caliber of college competition is a concern.
Lawrence lacked the ideal height (6-2 1/2) and speed (4.76 in the 40) for an NFL edge rusher. But his 10 1/2 sacks at Boise State last season caught the Cowboys’ attention. You can’t sleep on college productivity.
Except that productivity doesn’t always translate to the next level.
Everette Brown finished third in the NCAA with 13 1/2 sacks at Florida State in 2008. The Carolina Panthers took him in the second round with the 43rd overall pick of the 2009 draft and thought they stole one. But Brown managed only 2 1/2 sacks as a rookie. He’s now out of the league with just seven sacks in four seasons.
Andre Branch collected 10 1/2 sacks at Clemson in 2011. The Jacksonville Jaguars took him in the second round with the 38th overall pick of the 2012 draft, also thinking they stole one. Branch managed one sack as a rookie and now has seven in his two-year career.
In the previous 10 drafts (2004-13), there have been 50 defensive ends and outside linebackers — your potential edge rushers — selected in the second round. Those 50 averaged only 1.7 sacks in their rookie seasons. Only four of the 50 managed five or more sacks as rookies.
Thirty of the 50 collected one sack or less as rookies. Twenty failed to sack a single quarterback in their rookie seasons and 10 failed to sack a quarterback in their NFL careers. Thirty-two of the 50 have fewer than 10 career sacks.
You can find a gem in the second round, as the Pittsburgh Steelers did with LaMarr Woodley in the 2007 draft.
Woodley was coming off a 12-sack season at Michigan when the Steelers claimed him with the 46th overall selection. He only managed four sacks as a rookie but collected 11 1/2 sacks in his second season in 2008 and 13 1/2 more in 2009 on his way to his only Pro Bowl. Woodley posted 57 sacks in his first seven NFL seasons.
But that’s the high water mark for those second-round pass rushers since 2004. Only three of the 50 have as many as 30 career sacks. Woodley also is the only one to make a Pro Bowl.
The success stories are the exception to the rule with pass rushers in the second round. The Cowboys desperately need Lawrence to be one of those exceptions.
Listen to Rick Gosselin at 10:50 a.m. Tuesdays on Sportsradio 1310 AM/96.7 FM The Ticket with Norm Hitzges.
On Twitter: @RickGosselinDMN
OXNARD, Calif. — The second round is the tease round when it comes to NFL pass rushers.
Too often they look better than they really are.
The Cowboys hope that’s not the case with DeMarcus Lawrence. They need their second-round pick out of Boise State to be more than a factor this fall. They need him to become a force.
The Cowboys managed only 34 sacks last season, finishing 25th in the league. The fewer times you sack the quarterback, the less your chances for success. Seven of the top 10 sack teams qualified for the postseason in 2014, including Super Bowl champion Seattle. Only one of the bottom 10 teams qualified.
The departures of Pro Bowl tackle Jason Hatcher in free agency and end DeMarcus Ware as a salary-cap casualty have stripped the Cowboys’ pass rush of half its sacks from a year ago. Hatcher took his 11 to the Washington Redskins and Ware his six to the Denver Broncos.
The Cowboys hope to replace Hatcher with free agent Henry Melton and Ware with Lawrence. The Cowboys will need a combined 17 sacks from the two newcomers just to break even on last year.
Melton has never had more than seven sacks in a season in his four-year career. That would mean asking Lawrence to produce double figures as a rookie to get back those missing 17 sacks.
Lawrence had good moments and bad in his opening weekend of NFL contact — with the bad moments coming primarily when he lined up in drills against Pro Bowl tackle Tyron Smith. Still, Lawrence said during the opening week of camp he expects to get 10-plus sacks this season.
Don’t count on it.
The NFL knows where to find the best edge pass rushers — the first round. High in the first round. That’s why South Carolina’s Jadeveon Clowney was the first overall pick of the draft and why the NFL’s all-time leading sacker Bruce Smith was the first overall pick of his draft.
Hall of Famers Lawrence Taylor, Derrick Thomas and Chris Doleman plus Pro Bowlers Cornelius Bennett, Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, Terrell Suggs, J.J. Watt, Aldon Smith and Ware all arrived in the NFL in the first dozen picks of their respective drafts.
There’s a premium on the pass rush. The good ones don’t last long. If they are still around in the second round, there’s a reason. They either lack a measurable — height, weight or speed — or their caliber of college competition is a concern.
Lawrence lacked the ideal height (6-2 1/2) and speed (4.76 in the 40) for an NFL edge rusher. But his 10 1/2 sacks at Boise State last season caught the Cowboys’ attention. You can’t sleep on college productivity.
Except that productivity doesn’t always translate to the next level.
Everette Brown finished third in the NCAA with 13 1/2 sacks at Florida State in 2008. The Carolina Panthers took him in the second round with the 43rd overall pick of the 2009 draft and thought they stole one. But Brown managed only 2 1/2 sacks as a rookie. He’s now out of the league with just seven sacks in four seasons.
Andre Branch collected 10 1/2 sacks at Clemson in 2011. The Jacksonville Jaguars took him in the second round with the 38th overall pick of the 2012 draft, also thinking they stole one. Branch managed one sack as a rookie and now has seven in his two-year career.
In the previous 10 drafts (2004-13), there have been 50 defensive ends and outside linebackers — your potential edge rushers — selected in the second round. Those 50 averaged only 1.7 sacks in their rookie seasons. Only four of the 50 managed five or more sacks as rookies.
Thirty of the 50 collected one sack or less as rookies. Twenty failed to sack a single quarterback in their rookie seasons and 10 failed to sack a quarterback in their NFL careers. Thirty-two of the 50 have fewer than 10 career sacks.
You can find a gem in the second round, as the Pittsburgh Steelers did with LaMarr Woodley in the 2007 draft.
Woodley was coming off a 12-sack season at Michigan when the Steelers claimed him with the 46th overall selection. He only managed four sacks as a rookie but collected 11 1/2 sacks in his second season in 2008 and 13 1/2 more in 2009 on his way to his only Pro Bowl. Woodley posted 57 sacks in his first seven NFL seasons.
But that’s the high water mark for those second-round pass rushers since 2004. Only three of the 50 have as many as 30 career sacks. Woodley also is the only one to make a Pro Bowl.
The success stories are the exception to the rule with pass rushers in the second round. The Cowboys desperately need Lawrence to be one of those exceptions.
Listen to Rick Gosselin at 10:50 a.m. Tuesdays on Sportsradio 1310 AM/96.7 FM The Ticket with Norm Hitzges.
On Twitter: @RickGosselinDMN
