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Margin For Era
Rob Phillips
DallasCowboys.com Staff Writer
Sean Lee's second interception against the Colts led to a winning overtime field goal.IRVING, Texas - Jason Garrett, by admission, isn't a stat guy.
He knows numbers can get twisted and bent to fit certain theories about a football team, but they often ring hollow. They don't always contribute to the supreme stat: the NFL standings. Wins and losses.
One stat Garrett does pay full attention to each week - "It was drilled into my head as a quarterback," he says - is turnover margin.
Pretty simple why: the more chances a team has to score, by taking care of the football on offense and by taking it away on defense, the better. The Cowboys have been much more proficient in that area in the six games since Garrett became interim head coach.
In the first eight games before Wade Phillips' dismissal, the Cowboys tied for 29th with a minus-9 margin. With a plus-9 margin in Garrett's first six games, the Cowboys have climbed back to even (ranked 14th) for the first time since the season opener.
The breakdown: in the first eight games, 19 turnovers to 10 takeaways (minus-9); in the last six games, 7 turnovers to 16 takeaways (plus-9).
The result: a 4-2 record that has faded memories of the Cowboys' dreadful 1-7 start.
Believe it or not, give partial credit to the defense. Despite being nine points shy of the single-season franchise record for points allowed (405), the D has produced 16 takeaways in this six-game stretch to bring their season total to 26 - tied for seventh in the league. They had only 21 in 2009.
The defense clearly has had issues with points and yards allowed, but they've also helped quarterback Jon Kitna and the offense average 32.2 points with Garrett in charge. In last Sunday's win over the Redskins, the Cowboys scored 14 of their 33 points off two takeaways (an interception and fumble). The drives started at the Washington 27 and 15.
"Short fields, and you're always excited about getting a turnover," Kitna said. "We need to take more advantage of the turnovers. We haven't been great turning them into touchdowns."
They've actually been pretty good. Only the Patriots have scored more points off turnovers (112) than the Cowboys' 110. In those last six games, the Cowboys have scored 72 of 193 points off turnovers.
Conversely, of the Cowboys' 396 points allowed this season, 98 have come off their own turnovers. That's 25 percent. Costly.
Garrett will tell you the turnover margin has had a prominent impact throughout the NFL for the last 10, 20, maybe even 50 years. I didn't research that far back - at some point the Christmas shopping must get done - but it's certainly had an impact this year.
When you look at the teams with the five best turnover ratios - Patriots (plus-20), Steelers (plus-14), Eagles (plus-14), Falcons (plus-13), Chiefs (plus-10) - there's one common trait: they're all leading their divisions and likely heading to the playoffs.
Let's go further.
According to STATS Inc, teams that are plus-3 in a game have a 47-3 record this season.
Plus-2: 46-9.
Plus-1: 57-26.
Even: 36-36.
Minus-1: 26-57.
Minus-2: 9-46.
Minus-3: 3-47 (Ironically enough, the Cowboys are one of those three teams, losing to the Giants on Oct. 25 when Tony Romo got injured.)
It's a steady progression downward, isn't it? This stat just doesn't lie.
Overall this season, the Cowboys are 0-6 with a minus margin and 5-3 with a plus or even margin. The only time they've been in the red under Garrett was the Thanksgiving Day loss to New Orleans, when a late Roy Williams fumble swung the pendulum.
There are several reasons for the Cowboys' recent resurgence. They're running the ball better. They're protecting Jon Kitna better. David Buehler is making big kicks. They've simply been resilient.
But Garrett's favorite stat is pretty telling, too.
Rob Phillips
DallasCowboys.com Staff Writer
Sean Lee's second interception against the Colts led to a winning overtime field goal.IRVING, Texas - Jason Garrett, by admission, isn't a stat guy.
He knows numbers can get twisted and bent to fit certain theories about a football team, but they often ring hollow. They don't always contribute to the supreme stat: the NFL standings. Wins and losses.
One stat Garrett does pay full attention to each week - "It was drilled into my head as a quarterback," he says - is turnover margin.
Pretty simple why: the more chances a team has to score, by taking care of the football on offense and by taking it away on defense, the better. The Cowboys have been much more proficient in that area in the six games since Garrett became interim head coach.
In the first eight games before Wade Phillips' dismissal, the Cowboys tied for 29th with a minus-9 margin. With a plus-9 margin in Garrett's first six games, the Cowboys have climbed back to even (ranked 14th) for the first time since the season opener.
The breakdown: in the first eight games, 19 turnovers to 10 takeaways (minus-9); in the last six games, 7 turnovers to 16 takeaways (plus-9).
The result: a 4-2 record that has faded memories of the Cowboys' dreadful 1-7 start.
Believe it or not, give partial credit to the defense. Despite being nine points shy of the single-season franchise record for points allowed (405), the D has produced 16 takeaways in this six-game stretch to bring their season total to 26 - tied for seventh in the league. They had only 21 in 2009.
The defense clearly has had issues with points and yards allowed, but they've also helped quarterback Jon Kitna and the offense average 32.2 points with Garrett in charge. In last Sunday's win over the Redskins, the Cowboys scored 14 of their 33 points off two takeaways (an interception and fumble). The drives started at the Washington 27 and 15.
"Short fields, and you're always excited about getting a turnover," Kitna said. "We need to take more advantage of the turnovers. We haven't been great turning them into touchdowns."
They've actually been pretty good. Only the Patriots have scored more points off turnovers (112) than the Cowboys' 110. In those last six games, the Cowboys have scored 72 of 193 points off turnovers.
Conversely, of the Cowboys' 396 points allowed this season, 98 have come off their own turnovers. That's 25 percent. Costly.
Garrett will tell you the turnover margin has had a prominent impact throughout the NFL for the last 10, 20, maybe even 50 years. I didn't research that far back - at some point the Christmas shopping must get done - but it's certainly had an impact this year.
When you look at the teams with the five best turnover ratios - Patriots (plus-20), Steelers (plus-14), Eagles (plus-14), Falcons (plus-13), Chiefs (plus-10) - there's one common trait: they're all leading their divisions and likely heading to the playoffs.
Let's go further.
According to STATS Inc, teams that are plus-3 in a game have a 47-3 record this season.
Plus-2: 46-9.
Plus-1: 57-26.
Even: 36-36.
Minus-1: 26-57.
Minus-2: 9-46.
Minus-3: 3-47 (Ironically enough, the Cowboys are one of those three teams, losing to the Giants on Oct. 25 when Tony Romo got injured.)
It's a steady progression downward, isn't it? This stat just doesn't lie.
Overall this season, the Cowboys are 0-6 with a minus margin and 5-3 with a plus or even margin. The only time they've been in the red under Garrett was the Thanksgiving Day loss to New Orleans, when a late Roy Williams fumble swung the pendulum.
There are several reasons for the Cowboys' recent resurgence. They're running the ball better. They're protecting Jon Kitna better. David Buehler is making big kicks. They've simply been resilient.
But Garrett's favorite stat is pretty telling, too.
