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Drop Percentage: Running Backs
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/27/drop-percentage-running-backs/
May 27th, 2011 | Author: Khaled Elsayed
We may as well have renamed this week “Drop Week”, what with our focus on offensive players who do and do not drop catchable passes. On Monday we covered wide receivers, on Wednesday we moved on to tight ends, which means today there’s really only one group left to look at.
Running backs.
I guess technically we’re not just looking at running backs (full backs have made their way onto this list as well), but it’s those guys in the offensive backfield who provide the inspiration for piece No. 3.
So we’ve taken all running backs from 2010 who had at least 25 catchable balls thrown their way (including post season), and done our usual to it. Used their number of catchable balls (receptions plus drops) and divided it by the numbers of drops they had to give us their drop percentage.
We even got our first guy in this series who avoided dropping any passes, which sounds as good a place as any to start.
Pierre-less
We’ve always been fans of what Saints running back Pierre Thomas can do. He makes people miss tackles, can pick up yards after contact and is a very reliable receiver. So reliable in fact, that he was the only player in any of our studies to have not dropped a ball the entire year. The downside to that is that he was only thrown 29 catchable balls, and he missed a significant amount of playing time to injury (not for the first time). But, when he’s healthy, he’s as complete a back as there is.
So instead, though he finished in second place, the most impressive results may have been put up by Ray Rice. A year after dropping seven balls, the Raven put just one on the floor in recording an impressive 1.32% drop percentage. It was a figure that narrowly beat out soon-to-be Madden Cover Boy, Peyton Hillis, who, like Rice, dropped just one pass to finish with a low score of 1.61%.
Others impressing include Felix Jones, Jason Snelling and Danny Woodhead. All men saw a considerable amount of their time in passing situations and they all responded by catching nearly everything they could (as well as, not coincidentally, positive grades for their receiving).
Fostering Improvement
One man who didn’t make quite the statement in this area was Arian Foster, which is something that should worry the rest of the league. His five drops were far too many for a running back, leaving him in 19th position with a 7.04% drop percentage. Yet he still finished as our highest-graded receiving running back, in large part to his ability to make defenders miss (his 18 forced missed tackles were second of all backs). When one of the top players at his position still has room to improve, that has to be of concern to those especially in the AFC South.
Drop Percentage, Running Backs, Top 10, 2010
Rank Name Team Receptions Drops Catchable Drop %
1 Pierre Thomas NO 29 0 29 0.00%
2 Ray Rice BLT 75 1 76 1.32%
3 Peyton Hillis CLV 61 1 62 1.61%
4 Felix Jones DAL 48 1 49 2.04%
5 Jason Snelling ATL 46 1 47 2.13%
6 Danny Woodhead NE 40 1 41 2.44%
7 Knowshon Moreno DEN 37 1 38 2.63%
8 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 34 1 35 2.86%
9 Matt Forte CHI 64 2 66 3.03%
10 Cedric Benson CIN 28 1 29 3.45%
At the bottom of the heap is Fred Jackson. The Bill went from only dropping three balls in 2009, to three times as many in 2010. It was a narrowly higher rate than what Tim Hightower managed. The Cardinal’s woes in the passing game added to the voices that suggest he isn’t cut out for an every down role.
There’s also further reinforcement for the idea that, as good as pure runner as Adrian Peterson is (and there may not be a better one), he still needs to improve on his work in the passing game. He finished with the fifth worst percentage of drops, just below Rashard Mendenhall (12.9%) and Jamaal Charles (11.54%).
Drop Percentage, Running Backs, Bottom 10, 2010
Rank Name Team Receptions Drops Catchable Drop %
32 Steven Jackson SL 46 5 51 9.80%
33 Mike Goodson CAR 36 4 40 10.00%
34 Marcel Reece OAK 25 3 28 10.71%
35 Jamaal Charles KC 46 6 52 11.54%
36 Rashard Mendenhall PIT 27 4 31 12.90%
37 Adrian L. Peterson MIN 36 6 42 14.29%
38 Correll Buckhalter DEN 28 5 33 15.15%
39 Michael Sellers WAS 20 5 25 20.00%
40 Tim Hightower ARZ 21 6 27 22.22%
41 Fred Jackson BUF 31 9 40 22.50%
That gives us a quick summary of 2010. But what about the past three years? Fortunately enough we can dig that up too. The qualifying minimum is raised to 70 catchable balls and that gives us a healthy number of 44 guys to dissect … and much like in our 2010 data, one man stood out.
Pierre-less (Part Two)
Once again we have to sing the praises of Pierre Thomas, who, over the past three years, has only dropped one ball. He’s not alone in that regard as both Steve Slaton and Felix Jones matched that total. Thomas’ 111 receptions, though, rise above Slaton’s 97 and Jones’ 73.
Of the three men at the top, Slaton is the most interesting case. His rookie year showed he has talent, and while Houston may be loaded with the kind of backfield that makes it hard for him to contribute, at the very least he could catch on somewhere as a dependable third down back.
Something which could also be said of the man in fourth place, Jason Snelling. The Falcons assigned a 2nd round tender and are likely to keep him if he ends up as a restricted free agent, but his emergence in the passing game makes Jerious Norwood all the more expendable and could cloud the role for the rookie just brought in.
Elsewhere in the Top 10, a name we haven’t always written great stuff about, is Matt Forte. He had a dismal 2009, but rebounded strongly last year and has always been a reliable receiver out of the backfield. Just seven drops since entering the league gives Jay Cutler the kind of safety valve he’ll continue to need without massive improvements in their offensive line.
Drop Percentage, Running Backs, Top 10, 2008-2010
Rank Name Team Receptions Drops Catchable Drop %
1 Pierre Thomas NO 111 1 112 0.89%
2 Steve Slaton HST 97 1 98 1.02%
3 Felix Jones DAL 73 1 74 1.35%
4 Jason Snelling ATL 84 3 87 3.45%
5 Matt Forte CHI 184 7 191 3.66%
6 Brian Westbrook SF 103 4 107 3.74%
7 Darren Sproles SD 147 6 153 3.92%
8 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 149 7 156 4.49%
9 Ray Rice BLT 198 10 208 4.81%
10 Peyton Hillis CLV 79 4 83 4.82%
Once again while we’re down at the bottom we’re mentioning the name of Adrian Peterson. We’ve already written about his struggles, but here are the numbers that back up what everyone already knows: he needs to work on his hands.
But he’s not the only one. Players like Ahmad Bradshaw, Chris Johnson and Tim Hightower all played a significant amount of snaps in passing situations, and all have struggled to hold onto the ball. Now with Bradshaw you can almost let it slide because of how good he is when it comes to blitz pick-up, but the others either need to improve, or need to have their roles reduced in these situations.
Drop Percentage, Running Backs, Bottom 10, 2008-2010
Rank Name Team Receptions Drops Catchable Drop %
34 Jamaal Charles KC 113 13 126 10.32%
35 Chris D. Johnson TEN 138 16 154 10.39%
36 Ricky Williams MIA 84 10 94 10.64%
37 Fred Jackson BUF 114 14 128 10.94%
38 DeAngelo Williams CAR 63 8 71 11.27%
39 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 73 10 83 12.05%
40 Le'Ron McClain BLT 62 9 71 12.68%
41 Marshawn Lynch SEA 97 16 113 14.16%
43 Tim Hightower ARZ 127 23 150 15.33%
44 Adrian L. Peterson MIN 103 19 122 15.57%
Ultimately, it’s not the only important part of a back in the passing game. Blitz pick-up and what you do with the ball in hand, are equally important, but when you consider that teams usually generate around 15% of their passing yardage with their backs (a number different for different teams), you can’t contribute to that chunk without catching the ball.
So, catch that ball. It’s not just your drop percentage that will appreciate it.
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/27/drop-percentage-running-backs/
May 27th, 2011 | Author: Khaled Elsayed
We may as well have renamed this week “Drop Week”, what with our focus on offensive players who do and do not drop catchable passes. On Monday we covered wide receivers, on Wednesday we moved on to tight ends, which means today there’s really only one group left to look at.
Running backs.
I guess technically we’re not just looking at running backs (full backs have made their way onto this list as well), but it’s those guys in the offensive backfield who provide the inspiration for piece No. 3.
So we’ve taken all running backs from 2010 who had at least 25 catchable balls thrown their way (including post season), and done our usual to it. Used their number of catchable balls (receptions plus drops) and divided it by the numbers of drops they had to give us their drop percentage.
We even got our first guy in this series who avoided dropping any passes, which sounds as good a place as any to start.
Pierre-less
We’ve always been fans of what Saints running back Pierre Thomas can do. He makes people miss tackles, can pick up yards after contact and is a very reliable receiver. So reliable in fact, that he was the only player in any of our studies to have not dropped a ball the entire year. The downside to that is that he was only thrown 29 catchable balls, and he missed a significant amount of playing time to injury (not for the first time). But, when he’s healthy, he’s as complete a back as there is.
So instead, though he finished in second place, the most impressive results may have been put up by Ray Rice. A year after dropping seven balls, the Raven put just one on the floor in recording an impressive 1.32% drop percentage. It was a figure that narrowly beat out soon-to-be Madden Cover Boy, Peyton Hillis, who, like Rice, dropped just one pass to finish with a low score of 1.61%.
Others impressing include Felix Jones, Jason Snelling and Danny Woodhead. All men saw a considerable amount of their time in passing situations and they all responded by catching nearly everything they could (as well as, not coincidentally, positive grades for their receiving).
Fostering Improvement
One man who didn’t make quite the statement in this area was Arian Foster, which is something that should worry the rest of the league. His five drops were far too many for a running back, leaving him in 19th position with a 7.04% drop percentage. Yet he still finished as our highest-graded receiving running back, in large part to his ability to make defenders miss (his 18 forced missed tackles were second of all backs). When one of the top players at his position still has room to improve, that has to be of concern to those especially in the AFC South.
Drop Percentage, Running Backs, Top 10, 2010
Rank Name Team Receptions Drops Catchable Drop %
1 Pierre Thomas NO 29 0 29 0.00%
2 Ray Rice BLT 75 1 76 1.32%
3 Peyton Hillis CLV 61 1 62 1.61%
4 Felix Jones DAL 48 1 49 2.04%
5 Jason Snelling ATL 46 1 47 2.13%
6 Danny Woodhead NE 40 1 41 2.44%
7 Knowshon Moreno DEN 37 1 38 2.63%
8 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 34 1 35 2.86%
9 Matt Forte CHI 64 2 66 3.03%
10 Cedric Benson CIN 28 1 29 3.45%
At the bottom of the heap is Fred Jackson. The Bill went from only dropping three balls in 2009, to three times as many in 2010. It was a narrowly higher rate than what Tim Hightower managed. The Cardinal’s woes in the passing game added to the voices that suggest he isn’t cut out for an every down role.
There’s also further reinforcement for the idea that, as good as pure runner as Adrian Peterson is (and there may not be a better one), he still needs to improve on his work in the passing game. He finished with the fifth worst percentage of drops, just below Rashard Mendenhall (12.9%) and Jamaal Charles (11.54%).
Drop Percentage, Running Backs, Bottom 10, 2010
Rank Name Team Receptions Drops Catchable Drop %
32 Steven Jackson SL 46 5 51 9.80%
33 Mike Goodson CAR 36 4 40 10.00%
34 Marcel Reece OAK 25 3 28 10.71%
35 Jamaal Charles KC 46 6 52 11.54%
36 Rashard Mendenhall PIT 27 4 31 12.90%
37 Adrian L. Peterson MIN 36 6 42 14.29%
38 Correll Buckhalter DEN 28 5 33 15.15%
39 Michael Sellers WAS 20 5 25 20.00%
40 Tim Hightower ARZ 21 6 27 22.22%
41 Fred Jackson BUF 31 9 40 22.50%
That gives us a quick summary of 2010. But what about the past three years? Fortunately enough we can dig that up too. The qualifying minimum is raised to 70 catchable balls and that gives us a healthy number of 44 guys to dissect … and much like in our 2010 data, one man stood out.
Pierre-less (Part Two)
Once again we have to sing the praises of Pierre Thomas, who, over the past three years, has only dropped one ball. He’s not alone in that regard as both Steve Slaton and Felix Jones matched that total. Thomas’ 111 receptions, though, rise above Slaton’s 97 and Jones’ 73.
Of the three men at the top, Slaton is the most interesting case. His rookie year showed he has talent, and while Houston may be loaded with the kind of backfield that makes it hard for him to contribute, at the very least he could catch on somewhere as a dependable third down back.
Something which could also be said of the man in fourth place, Jason Snelling. The Falcons assigned a 2nd round tender and are likely to keep him if he ends up as a restricted free agent, but his emergence in the passing game makes Jerious Norwood all the more expendable and could cloud the role for the rookie just brought in.
Elsewhere in the Top 10, a name we haven’t always written great stuff about, is Matt Forte. He had a dismal 2009, but rebounded strongly last year and has always been a reliable receiver out of the backfield. Just seven drops since entering the league gives Jay Cutler the kind of safety valve he’ll continue to need without massive improvements in their offensive line.
Drop Percentage, Running Backs, Top 10, 2008-2010
Rank Name Team Receptions Drops Catchable Drop %
1 Pierre Thomas NO 111 1 112 0.89%
2 Steve Slaton HST 97 1 98 1.02%
3 Felix Jones DAL 73 1 74 1.35%
4 Jason Snelling ATL 84 3 87 3.45%
5 Matt Forte CHI 184 7 191 3.66%
6 Brian Westbrook SF 103 4 107 3.74%
7 Darren Sproles SD 147 6 153 3.92%
8 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 149 7 156 4.49%
9 Ray Rice BLT 198 10 208 4.81%
10 Peyton Hillis CLV 79 4 83 4.82%
Once again while we’re down at the bottom we’re mentioning the name of Adrian Peterson. We’ve already written about his struggles, but here are the numbers that back up what everyone already knows: he needs to work on his hands.
But he’s not the only one. Players like Ahmad Bradshaw, Chris Johnson and Tim Hightower all played a significant amount of snaps in passing situations, and all have struggled to hold onto the ball. Now with Bradshaw you can almost let it slide because of how good he is when it comes to blitz pick-up, but the others either need to improve, or need to have their roles reduced in these situations.
Drop Percentage, Running Backs, Bottom 10, 2008-2010
Rank Name Team Receptions Drops Catchable Drop %
34 Jamaal Charles KC 113 13 126 10.32%
35 Chris D. Johnson TEN 138 16 154 10.39%
36 Ricky Williams MIA 84 10 94 10.64%
37 Fred Jackson BUF 114 14 128 10.94%
38 DeAngelo Williams CAR 63 8 71 11.27%
39 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 73 10 83 12.05%
40 Le'Ron McClain BLT 62 9 71 12.68%
41 Marshawn Lynch SEA 97 16 113 14.16%
43 Tim Hightower ARZ 127 23 150 15.33%
44 Adrian L. Peterson MIN 103 19 122 15.57%
Ultimately, it’s not the only important part of a back in the passing game. Blitz pick-up and what you do with the ball in hand, are equally important, but when you consider that teams usually generate around 15% of their passing yardage with their backs (a number different for different teams), you can’t contribute to that chunk without catching the ball.
So, catch that ball. It’s not just your drop percentage that will appreciate it.
