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http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/cowboys/post/_/id/4686768/playoff-predictor-picks-cowboys-in-east
If you have an ESPN Insider subscription, you can check out the Playoff Predictor, which uses advanced algorithms to predict the NFL playoff field based on everything from remaining schedule to injuries to the weather in various NFL cities in the month of December. This week's Playoff Predictor saw a change at the top of the NFC East, as it's now picking the Dallas Cowboys to win and the New York Giants to miss the playoffs in spite of a 9-7 record. It also has the Cowboys finishing 9-7, but gives them a 63.37 percent chance of making the playoffs:
The Cowboys looked truly dominant against Buffalo and find themselves right in the thick of things in the NFC East. Dallas will benefit from a soft schedule the rest of the way, including games against the Redskins, Dolphins, Cardinals and Bucs.
The Giants' chance of making the playoffs is at 56.27 percent. And, yes, I myself have questions about a formula that gives seven teams a better-than-50-percent chance at making a six-team playoff field. I was very good at math in high school, you know, so consider my eyebrows raised. But with the Bears and Lions projected to finish at 10-6 and claim wild-card spots, the Predictor says only one NFC East team will make it. Here's what it says about the Giants:
The Giants' fate will likely be decided in two late-season matchups against Dallas. Unfortunately, New York still has to face the Packers, Saints, Jets and Eagles.
See? Lots of this is based on the apparent quality of each team's remaining schedule, which is important, I think, but nothing close to a guarantee. The Cowboys have shown us an ability to lose games they ought to have won, while the Giants have shown us an ability to win games they ought to have lost. That's the kind of intangible stuff that the algorithms can't possibly take into account.
So this is nothing to get worked up over (he said, knowing full well that they would anyway), and if the Giants go 2-0 against the Cowboys those percentages are going to swing wildly back the other way. In the lead-in to this week's chart, the Predictor admits to being "volatile," so check back next week to see what major changes await. Maybe something happens to the Lions or Bears and the Giants all of a sudden look like a wild-card entry.
Meantime, in case you're wondering, it has the Eagles finishing at 7-9 and the Redskins at 5-11.
If you have an ESPN Insider subscription, you can check out the Playoff Predictor, which uses advanced algorithms to predict the NFL playoff field based on everything from remaining schedule to injuries to the weather in various NFL cities in the month of December. This week's Playoff Predictor saw a change at the top of the NFC East, as it's now picking the Dallas Cowboys to win and the New York Giants to miss the playoffs in spite of a 9-7 record. It also has the Cowboys finishing 9-7, but gives them a 63.37 percent chance of making the playoffs:
The Cowboys looked truly dominant against Buffalo and find themselves right in the thick of things in the NFC East. Dallas will benefit from a soft schedule the rest of the way, including games against the Redskins, Dolphins, Cardinals and Bucs.
The Giants' chance of making the playoffs is at 56.27 percent. And, yes, I myself have questions about a formula that gives seven teams a better-than-50-percent chance at making a six-team playoff field. I was very good at math in high school, you know, so consider my eyebrows raised. But with the Bears and Lions projected to finish at 10-6 and claim wild-card spots, the Predictor says only one NFC East team will make it. Here's what it says about the Giants:
The Giants' fate will likely be decided in two late-season matchups against Dallas. Unfortunately, New York still has to face the Packers, Saints, Jets and Eagles.
See? Lots of this is based on the apparent quality of each team's remaining schedule, which is important, I think, but nothing close to a guarantee. The Cowboys have shown us an ability to lose games they ought to have won, while the Giants have shown us an ability to win games they ought to have lost. That's the kind of intangible stuff that the algorithms can't possibly take into account.
So this is nothing to get worked up over (he said, knowing full well that they would anyway), and if the Giants go 2-0 against the Cowboys those percentages are going to swing wildly back the other way. In the lead-in to this week's chart, the Predictor admits to being "volatile," so check back next week to see what major changes await. Maybe something happens to the Lions or Bears and the Giants all of a sudden look like a wild-card entry.
Meantime, in case you're wondering, it has the Eagles finishing at 7-9 and the Redskins at 5-11.
bair