C
Cr122
Guest
Updated: April 14, 2011, 5:04 PM
On Any Given Sunday . . .
Phillips: Cowboys Can't Count On A "Weaker" Schedule
No one gave the Cowboys much of a chance to win on the road against Manning and Co.
IRVING, Texas - Has there been a more anticlimactic NFL announcement than this year's preseason schedule - beyond the fact that it's the preseason schedule?
No one even knows how many exhibition games will be played due to the lockout. The bigger annual April announcement is the regular season schedule, also currently threatened by the work stoppage. And although it hasn't been released yet, we do know who the Cowboys will face in the 2011 season - if there's a 2011 season.
Let's recap. Home: New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins. Road: New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New England Patriots, New York Jets. Times and dates to be determined.
Technically, the Cowboys inherited a third-place schedule for their hopeful climb back to contention, having tied fellow NFC East cellar-dweller Washington at 6-10 last year. With a revamped coaching staff, a healthy Tony Romo, a few tweaks to the roster and some easier opponents, a playoff berth should be a virtual lock.
Right?
Wrong.
For what it's worth, the Cowboys are tied for the 15th-toughest schedule out of 32 teams, which is calculated and ranked based on their opponents' combined 2010 winning percentage (.504). Smack dab in the middle. The 'Skins appeared to get a break, tied for the 27th-toughest schedule (.473).
That's purely a mirage. There are no "easy" opponents in the National Football League. Not even last year's Cowboys, who were wildly inconsistent and self-destructive for the first half of the season. (OK, maybe the Jaguars and Packers didn't meet much resistance from the 'Boys in late October-early November, but you get the idea. The "any given Sunday" line is basically true if you don't bring it.)
That schedule strength stuff? The difference between the so-called easiest one (.555) and the so-called toughest one (.441) is minute. There's so much parity that very few teams have become perennial postseason guests. Every team except Detroit and Buffalo has made the playoffs at least once since 2000, but only 12 teams have made it at least five times (the Cowboys made it four times).
Which leads to the next point: a team's record a year ago is essentially meaningless, and that makes those calculations meaningless. Teams go 10-6 one year, 6-10 the next on a regular basis. The Cowboys' rise and fall from 2009-10 is actually commonplace throughout the league, but it still was an utter disappointment due to preseason expectations and their relative consistency since 2005 (five straight winning seasons and three playoff appearances).
I feel sorry for reporters whose editors ask them - in April - to predict the entire schedule: win/loss and score for each game. Are you kidding? How many times have we looked at the Cowboys' schedule that far in advance and instantly marked down a loss? At Indy in 2010? At New Orleans in 2009? What about a guaranteed win? Jacksonville in 2010? At St. Louis in 2008?
It's all a crapshoot.
When you really look at it, the Cowboys' schedule isn't much different from their three division rivals. They all play the same rotating intra- and inter-conference divisions, as well as six total games against each other (one home, one away). That's 14 out of 16. Only the remaining two are determined by last season's division finish.
Last year the Cowboys had to play two other first-place teams within the NFC: New Orleans and Arizona. Both were supposedly tougher games meant to challenge the division winner. They lost both by a combined four points due in part to a couple of fluky mistakes (Roy Williams' fumble, David Buehler's missed extra point).
This year they'll face two other third-place teams: Tampa Bay and Detroit. Easier? Please. Who knows what will happen? Who would have thought the Cowboys would start 1-4 with Tony Romo and go 5-7 without him?
I, for one, am not about to say, "They'll beat Detroit, St. Louis and Buffalo at home" or "They've got no shot at New England or at the Jets." Nothing in this league is a certainty, and that's part of what makes it great.
Without a peek at the new schedule, one thing I can assure fans is another brutal December that includes primetime games and a couple of division battles, probably one against Philly. Let's face it: the Cowboys equal ratings.
No matter who they play, the best teams are mentally tough and careful with the ball. For eight games we saw a more resilient group under Jason Garrett that also improved its turnover ratio from minus-10 to plus-10.
Do that, do the best they can to improve the roster's depth and ability to win at the lines of scrimmage (offensive and defensive), and the Cowboys do have a good chance to bounce back from a disastrous 2010.
But it won't be because they're getting an "easier" schedule.
On Any Given Sunday . . .
Phillips: Cowboys Can't Count On A "Weaker" Schedule
No one gave the Cowboys much of a chance to win on the road against Manning and Co.
IRVING, Texas - Has there been a more anticlimactic NFL announcement than this year's preseason schedule - beyond the fact that it's the preseason schedule?
No one even knows how many exhibition games will be played due to the lockout. The bigger annual April announcement is the regular season schedule, also currently threatened by the work stoppage. And although it hasn't been released yet, we do know who the Cowboys will face in the 2011 season - if there's a 2011 season.
Let's recap. Home: New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins. Road: New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New England Patriots, New York Jets. Times and dates to be determined.
Technically, the Cowboys inherited a third-place schedule for their hopeful climb back to contention, having tied fellow NFC East cellar-dweller Washington at 6-10 last year. With a revamped coaching staff, a healthy Tony Romo, a few tweaks to the roster and some easier opponents, a playoff berth should be a virtual lock.
Right?
Wrong.
For what it's worth, the Cowboys are tied for the 15th-toughest schedule out of 32 teams, which is calculated and ranked based on their opponents' combined 2010 winning percentage (.504). Smack dab in the middle. The 'Skins appeared to get a break, tied for the 27th-toughest schedule (.473).
That's purely a mirage. There are no "easy" opponents in the National Football League. Not even last year's Cowboys, who were wildly inconsistent and self-destructive for the first half of the season. (OK, maybe the Jaguars and Packers didn't meet much resistance from the 'Boys in late October-early November, but you get the idea. The "any given Sunday" line is basically true if you don't bring it.)
That schedule strength stuff? The difference between the so-called easiest one (.555) and the so-called toughest one (.441) is minute. There's so much parity that very few teams have become perennial postseason guests. Every team except Detroit and Buffalo has made the playoffs at least once since 2000, but only 12 teams have made it at least five times (the Cowboys made it four times).
Which leads to the next point: a team's record a year ago is essentially meaningless, and that makes those calculations meaningless. Teams go 10-6 one year, 6-10 the next on a regular basis. The Cowboys' rise and fall from 2009-10 is actually commonplace throughout the league, but it still was an utter disappointment due to preseason expectations and their relative consistency since 2005 (five straight winning seasons and three playoff appearances).
I feel sorry for reporters whose editors ask them - in April - to predict the entire schedule: win/loss and score for each game. Are you kidding? How many times have we looked at the Cowboys' schedule that far in advance and instantly marked down a loss? At Indy in 2010? At New Orleans in 2009? What about a guaranteed win? Jacksonville in 2010? At St. Louis in 2008?
It's all a crapshoot.
When you really look at it, the Cowboys' schedule isn't much different from their three division rivals. They all play the same rotating intra- and inter-conference divisions, as well as six total games against each other (one home, one away). That's 14 out of 16. Only the remaining two are determined by last season's division finish.
Last year the Cowboys had to play two other first-place teams within the NFC: New Orleans and Arizona. Both were supposedly tougher games meant to challenge the division winner. They lost both by a combined four points due in part to a couple of fluky mistakes (Roy Williams' fumble, David Buehler's missed extra point).
This year they'll face two other third-place teams: Tampa Bay and Detroit. Easier? Please. Who knows what will happen? Who would have thought the Cowboys would start 1-4 with Tony Romo and go 5-7 without him?
I, for one, am not about to say, "They'll beat Detroit, St. Louis and Buffalo at home" or "They've got no shot at New England or at the Jets." Nothing in this league is a certainty, and that's part of what makes it great.
Without a peek at the new schedule, one thing I can assure fans is another brutal December that includes primetime games and a couple of division battles, probably one against Philly. Let's face it: the Cowboys equal ratings.
No matter who they play, the best teams are mentally tough and careful with the ball. For eight games we saw a more resilient group under Jason Garrett that also improved its turnover ratio from minus-10 to plus-10.
Do that, do the best they can to improve the roster's depth and ability to win at the lines of scrimmage (offensive and defensive), and the Cowboys do have a good chance to bounce back from a disastrous 2010.
But it won't be because they're getting an "easier" schedule.