In recent years, offensive tackle has become a sexy position on draft day. In 2008, seven of them were taken in the 1st round. This year, another seven offensive tackles and perhaps eight offensive linemen could hear their names called in the first round -- one in every four picks.
With Dallas needing an offensive tackle and some quality interior line depth for a unit which has four starters aged 32 and over, can the Cowboys afford to go for any position besides offensive line in the first round? I took a look under the hood of last year's Cowboys draft, with a tremendous assist from reader and all-around Cowboys blogs regular Theebs, who produced several high-quality stills and clips from last year's Cowboys war room. They allowed me to reconstruct Dallas' board in toto for the early rounds and show how much the offensive line positions appear to be pushed.
Consequently, the board argues for Dallas, all things being equal, to take an offensive lineman in the 1st round, and perhaps even in the 2nd.
The Cowboys, as I have posted on many occasions, do not build a full board from 1 through 400 or so, which places every available player on its board. Dallas uses a much tighter board, running 120-150 players who fit its systems.
What's more, the Cowboys do not assign 32 first round grades. Their scouts try to determine how many players can start as rookies and make significant contributions. Only those players get 1st round grades. That number is not fixed, because you don't know from year-to-year how many players fit the criteria. I've been told by scouts that it usually runs between 18 to 25 players, depending on the strength of the class.
Their 2nd round grades are players expected to make a contribution as first-year players, either as immediate starters or as key situational players. The middle rounds are players who could become starters in time, but who will need work.
Last year's Cowboys board had 21 visible 1st-round players (a 22nd had his name redacted, for some unknown reason) and 16 with 2nd-round grades. Here are the offensive linemen who drew grades in the first three rounds. Their draft position and team are in parentheses):
1-4 Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma St. (5th - Seahawks)
1-5 Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma (4th -Redskins)
1-10 Mike Iupati, G, Idaho (17th - 49ers)
1-13 Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa (23rd - Packers)
1-18 Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida (18th - Steelers)
(no OL with 2nd round grades)
3-40 Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers (11th - 49ers)
3-56 Roger Saffold, OT, Indiana (33rd -- Rams)
3-62 Jon Asamoah, G, Illinois (68th - Chiefs)
3-65 Zane Beadles, G, Utah (45th - Broncos)
Let's examine the Cowboys' accuracy with these grades. They're not bad. The Cowboys' handed out five 1st-round grades to offensive linemen and every one of them was taken ahead of Dallas' pick at 24. A sixth player, Anthony Davis, was drafted much higher than the Cowboys board.
Dallas entered the draft with the 27th pick. When the Packers took Bryan Bulaga with pick 23, the Cowboys had five players left on their board with 1st-grades:
1-12 Dez Bryant, WR
1-14 Sean Lee, LB
1-15 Jared Odrick, DE
1-17 Kyle Wilson, CB
1-19 Navarro Bowman, LB
The Cowboys made a quick jump up to the 24th slot and selected their top remaining player.
Let's move to the 2nd round. Only four offensive linemen were taken there, Roger Saffold at the top of the round, G Zane Beadles at 45, Vladimir Ducasse at 61 and Charles Brown at 64. The only ''miss'' from this list, in terms of the Cowboys board, is Saffold, who was a quality left tackle from day one for the Rams. Ducasse and Brown, however, did not start for their respective teams in 2010. Beadles did start 14 games for Denver, but the Cowboys landed the much higher rated Lee with their 2nd.
It does appear the Cowboys were ''hard graders'' once they got past the top tier. 3rd round grade carriers Davis and Saffold started all year for their teams. Even if you want to argue that the Cowboys should have rated those two higher, its clear the team went with its board, landing two players in the team's top 15.
The bigger lesson for Dallas is that OTs get pushed -- heavily. The team rated Anthony Davis 40th. He went 11th. They rated Saffold 56th. He went 33rd. By the time the Cowboys got a chance to pick for the second time, every OL in their first three rounds was long gone, save for Jon Asamoah. Even if the Cowboys had Roger Saffold rated, say, 20th, they would have had no chance to get him had they simply followed their board. And what self-respecting team spends months creating a board only to ignore it and push needs on draft day?
The Cowboys may have their pick of offensive linemen this year. The Cleveland Browns have scheduled a visit with USC's Tyron Smith, but they are the only team ahead of Dallas openly looking at an O-lineman that high. If the Cowboys choose another type of player, a cornerback or a defensive lineman, they face the risk that the Derek Sherrods, the Gabe Carimis, the Nate Solders and Anthony Castonzos, the Danny Watkins and even the Ben Ijalanas could be long gone by pick 40. There's a stretch of tackle-hungry teams, the Giants, Bucs, Chiefs, Colts, Eagles, Ravens and Bears, who all pick between 19th and 28th. The Redskins, Vikings and Lions, three teams who pick immediately after Dallas, have also scheduled visits with the top-rated Smith, suggesting the OT run could begin much earlier.
The 33 year old Marc Colombo's legs gave way last year. Leonard Davis and Kyle Kosier will both be 33 this year. Andre Gurode just turned 32. Dallas finished the season starting its 3rd quarterback, because the shaky protection got Tony Romo and Jon Kitna injured. If Dallas ignores recent OL history, it risks seeing more pillars of its already-creaky offensive line foundation collapse.
Jason Garrett is a creative guy, but I haven't seen a coach yet who could generate a high-scoring, playoff-ready offense without a line.
With Dallas needing an offensive tackle and some quality interior line depth for a unit which has four starters aged 32 and over, can the Cowboys afford to go for any position besides offensive line in the first round? I took a look under the hood of last year's Cowboys draft, with a tremendous assist from reader and all-around Cowboys blogs regular Theebs, who produced several high-quality stills and clips from last year's Cowboys war room. They allowed me to reconstruct Dallas' board in toto for the early rounds and show how much the offensive line positions appear to be pushed.
Consequently, the board argues for Dallas, all things being equal, to take an offensive lineman in the 1st round, and perhaps even in the 2nd.
The Cowboys, as I have posted on many occasions, do not build a full board from 1 through 400 or so, which places every available player on its board. Dallas uses a much tighter board, running 120-150 players who fit its systems.
What's more, the Cowboys do not assign 32 first round grades. Their scouts try to determine how many players can start as rookies and make significant contributions. Only those players get 1st round grades. That number is not fixed, because you don't know from year-to-year how many players fit the criteria. I've been told by scouts that it usually runs between 18 to 25 players, depending on the strength of the class.
Their 2nd round grades are players expected to make a contribution as first-year players, either as immediate starters or as key situational players. The middle rounds are players who could become starters in time, but who will need work.
Last year's Cowboys board had 21 visible 1st-round players (a 22nd had his name redacted, for some unknown reason) and 16 with 2nd-round grades. Here are the offensive linemen who drew grades in the first three rounds. Their draft position and team are in parentheses):
1-4 Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma St. (5th - Seahawks)
1-5 Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma (4th -Redskins)
1-10 Mike Iupati, G, Idaho (17th - 49ers)
1-13 Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa (23rd - Packers)
1-18 Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida (18th - Steelers)
(no OL with 2nd round grades)
3-40 Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers (11th - 49ers)
3-56 Roger Saffold, OT, Indiana (33rd -- Rams)
3-62 Jon Asamoah, G, Illinois (68th - Chiefs)
3-65 Zane Beadles, G, Utah (45th - Broncos)
Let's examine the Cowboys' accuracy with these grades. They're not bad. The Cowboys' handed out five 1st-round grades to offensive linemen and every one of them was taken ahead of Dallas' pick at 24. A sixth player, Anthony Davis, was drafted much higher than the Cowboys board.
Dallas entered the draft with the 27th pick. When the Packers took Bryan Bulaga with pick 23, the Cowboys had five players left on their board with 1st-grades:
1-12 Dez Bryant, WR
1-14 Sean Lee, LB
1-15 Jared Odrick, DE
1-17 Kyle Wilson, CB
1-19 Navarro Bowman, LB
The Cowboys made a quick jump up to the 24th slot and selected their top remaining player.
Let's move to the 2nd round. Only four offensive linemen were taken there, Roger Saffold at the top of the round, G Zane Beadles at 45, Vladimir Ducasse at 61 and Charles Brown at 64. The only ''miss'' from this list, in terms of the Cowboys board, is Saffold, who was a quality left tackle from day one for the Rams. Ducasse and Brown, however, did not start for their respective teams in 2010. Beadles did start 14 games for Denver, but the Cowboys landed the much higher rated Lee with their 2nd.
It does appear the Cowboys were ''hard graders'' once they got past the top tier. 3rd round grade carriers Davis and Saffold started all year for their teams. Even if you want to argue that the Cowboys should have rated those two higher, its clear the team went with its board, landing two players in the team's top 15.
The bigger lesson for Dallas is that OTs get pushed -- heavily. The team rated Anthony Davis 40th. He went 11th. They rated Saffold 56th. He went 33rd. By the time the Cowboys got a chance to pick for the second time, every OL in their first three rounds was long gone, save for Jon Asamoah. Even if the Cowboys had Roger Saffold rated, say, 20th, they would have had no chance to get him had they simply followed their board. And what self-respecting team spends months creating a board only to ignore it and push needs on draft day?
The Cowboys may have their pick of offensive linemen this year. The Cleveland Browns have scheduled a visit with USC's Tyron Smith, but they are the only team ahead of Dallas openly looking at an O-lineman that high. If the Cowboys choose another type of player, a cornerback or a defensive lineman, they face the risk that the Derek Sherrods, the Gabe Carimis, the Nate Solders and Anthony Castonzos, the Danny Watkins and even the Ben Ijalanas could be long gone by pick 40. There's a stretch of tackle-hungry teams, the Giants, Bucs, Chiefs, Colts, Eagles, Ravens and Bears, who all pick between 19th and 28th. The Redskins, Vikings and Lions, three teams who pick immediately after Dallas, have also scheduled visits with the top-rated Smith, suggesting the OT run could begin much earlier.
The 33 year old Marc Colombo's legs gave way last year. Leonard Davis and Kyle Kosier will both be 33 this year. Andre Gurode just turned 32. Dallas finished the season starting its 3rd quarterback, because the shaky protection got Tony Romo and Jon Kitna injured. If Dallas ignores recent OL history, it risks seeing more pillars of its already-creaky offensive line foundation collapse.
Jason Garrett is a creative guy, but I haven't seen a coach yet who could generate a high-scoring, playoff-ready offense without a line.
