The most important thing in the mock draft industry is to constantly crank out new ones so no one can remember your first eight or nine editions. This is the first time in years it seems like the No. 1 overall pick changes on a daily basis. One minute it's a quarterback from Missouri most of the nation never saw play, the next it's a one-season savant from Auburn with a checkered past.
Neither Blaine Gabbert nor Cam Newton will show up on my critically acclaimed "safest" players available list, so they will not be mentioned again in this column. The GMs who select the following players will be able to sleep at night and feel good about their job security.
If any of these players don't pan out in the league, feel free to contact my editor and lodge a formal complaint. Here are my stone-cold locks in this draft after having discussions with three longtime AFC scouts and one from the NFC:
1. Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama: Not really going out on a limb here, but Dareus is, hands-down, the safest pick in this draft. If the Broncos land Dareus at No. 2, new coach John Fox should send roses (or laptops) to his former team, the Panthers. Every scout reached for this column didn't hesitate before mentioning Dareus. Dareus has overcome a lot of hardships off the field and teams don't seem to have any doubts about his character. And on the field we're talking about a 320-pound guy who has a lethal spin move and a high motor.
2. Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU: He's starting to show up at No. 7 to the 49ers in a lot of mock drafts, and that would be a steal for San Francisco. It would not surprise me one bit if Peterson was the No. 1 player on the board for the Dallas Cowboys. That's how much respect they have for his rare talent. By the time the draft arrives, rest assured that Jerry Jones will have already tried to lay the groundwork with the 49ers or Titans for a potential trade. This is the type of bold move that would help Cowboys fans forget about that 6-10 season.
3. A.J. Green, WR, Georgia: In one of the most unpredictable drafts in the past decade, Green's about as safe as it gets. At 6-foot-3, 211 pounds, he is a physical player who always seems to win jump balls. It's probably not fair to compare anyone to Larry Fitzgerald, but he does show a lot of the same characteristics. And the way he handled his four-game NCAA suspension this past season actually made scouts more secure about his character. Green approached every practice as if he was starting the following week in order to make sure his teammates knew how sorry he was. The Bengals almost have to take Green at No. 4 given their situation at wide receiver. Green's not getting Calvin Johnson-like buildup to the draft, but it wouldn't be surprising if he ends up with similar production.
4. Tyron Smith, OT, USC: Had a chance to visit with Smith's former college coach, Pete Carroll, for about 10 minutes last week. He believes that Smith will be able to start immediately in the league, probably at right tackle. Everyone seems to have the Cowboys taking Smith at No. 9, but don't be surprised if Jones moves off that pick. There's probably a better chance of the Cowboys moving up or down rather than staying at home with the No. 9 pick. One scout told me that Smith was the only "special" offensive tackle in the draft. And another marveled at the fact that Smith could play 12 years in the league and only be 32. There's not a single thing you can find wrong with him from a physical standpoint. As long as he can quickly grasp the mental aspects of the NFL game, then he's a "lock" to be a productive player for years to come.
5. J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin: He's dropped in some mock drafts (McShay?!), but pass him over at your own risk. He'd be a perfect fit as a DE in a 3-4 scheme. It's not like he's going to record a ton of sacks, but he does an amazing job of getting his hands up and causing problems for quarterbacks. If he does slide past 15, a team is going to receive a gift. This draft seems full of players who overcame tough situations in college. Watt started his career at Central Michigan, but he was going nowhere as a tight end. He spent time delivering pizzas back in his hometown before walking on at Wisconsin. After becoming a force on the scout team, Watt was brilliant his next two seasons. He's the proverbial "can't miss" pick and some team will be very fortunate if he slips a little in the draft.
6. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama: He's the only running back with a first-round grade by most scouts and there's a chance he could slip into the 20s. The Dolphins desperately need a running back, but GM Jeff Ireland won't tie himself to a "need" position. Ingram reminds a lot of scouts of Emmitt Smith, so that's good enough for me. He won't wow anyone with his 40 times, but his balance and vision give him a chance to be a special back.
Honorable mention:
1. Andy Dalton, QB, TCU: Two of the scouts brought up TCU quarterback Andy Dalton's name in terms of the "safest" quarterback in the draft. He's made the biggest move of any quarterback. Keep your eye on the Bengals in the second round with Dalton. He was labeled as a "system" quarterback early on in the draft process, but he impressed everyone during his workouts and interviews. Everything about him shouts "winning!" to borrow a phrase from a noted sports enthusiast.
2. Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida: Best interior lineman in the draft. And it can only help his cause that his twin, Maurkice, was so effective for the Steelers last season. He came away from his interview at Valley Ranch convinced he'd be taken by the Cowboys, but Jerry Jones leaves that impression with a lot of players.
Obligatory Baylor reference: G Danny Watkins will be an absolute steal late in the first round or early in the second. Had the pleasure to watch about 14 of his games in person. Has a nasty streak that goes back to his playing hockey in Canada.
Neither Blaine Gabbert nor Cam Newton will show up on my critically acclaimed "safest" players available list, so they will not be mentioned again in this column. The GMs who select the following players will be able to sleep at night and feel good about their job security.
If any of these players don't pan out in the league, feel free to contact my editor and lodge a formal complaint. Here are my stone-cold locks in this draft after having discussions with three longtime AFC scouts and one from the NFC:
1. Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama: Not really going out on a limb here, but Dareus is, hands-down, the safest pick in this draft. If the Broncos land Dareus at No. 2, new coach John Fox should send roses (or laptops) to his former team, the Panthers. Every scout reached for this column didn't hesitate before mentioning Dareus. Dareus has overcome a lot of hardships off the field and teams don't seem to have any doubts about his character. And on the field we're talking about a 320-pound guy who has a lethal spin move and a high motor.
2. Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU: He's starting to show up at No. 7 to the 49ers in a lot of mock drafts, and that would be a steal for San Francisco. It would not surprise me one bit if Peterson was the No. 1 player on the board for the Dallas Cowboys. That's how much respect they have for his rare talent. By the time the draft arrives, rest assured that Jerry Jones will have already tried to lay the groundwork with the 49ers or Titans for a potential trade. This is the type of bold move that would help Cowboys fans forget about that 6-10 season.
3. A.J. Green, WR, Georgia: In one of the most unpredictable drafts in the past decade, Green's about as safe as it gets. At 6-foot-3, 211 pounds, he is a physical player who always seems to win jump balls. It's probably not fair to compare anyone to Larry Fitzgerald, but he does show a lot of the same characteristics. And the way he handled his four-game NCAA suspension this past season actually made scouts more secure about his character. Green approached every practice as if he was starting the following week in order to make sure his teammates knew how sorry he was. The Bengals almost have to take Green at No. 4 given their situation at wide receiver. Green's not getting Calvin Johnson-like buildup to the draft, but it wouldn't be surprising if he ends up with similar production.
4. Tyron Smith, OT, USC: Had a chance to visit with Smith's former college coach, Pete Carroll, for about 10 minutes last week. He believes that Smith will be able to start immediately in the league, probably at right tackle. Everyone seems to have the Cowboys taking Smith at No. 9, but don't be surprised if Jones moves off that pick. There's probably a better chance of the Cowboys moving up or down rather than staying at home with the No. 9 pick. One scout told me that Smith was the only "special" offensive tackle in the draft. And another marveled at the fact that Smith could play 12 years in the league and only be 32. There's not a single thing you can find wrong with him from a physical standpoint. As long as he can quickly grasp the mental aspects of the NFL game, then he's a "lock" to be a productive player for years to come.
5. J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin: He's dropped in some mock drafts (McShay?!), but pass him over at your own risk. He'd be a perfect fit as a DE in a 3-4 scheme. It's not like he's going to record a ton of sacks, but he does an amazing job of getting his hands up and causing problems for quarterbacks. If he does slide past 15, a team is going to receive a gift. This draft seems full of players who overcame tough situations in college. Watt started his career at Central Michigan, but he was going nowhere as a tight end. He spent time delivering pizzas back in his hometown before walking on at Wisconsin. After becoming a force on the scout team, Watt was brilliant his next two seasons. He's the proverbial "can't miss" pick and some team will be very fortunate if he slips a little in the draft.
6. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama: He's the only running back with a first-round grade by most scouts and there's a chance he could slip into the 20s. The Dolphins desperately need a running back, but GM Jeff Ireland won't tie himself to a "need" position. Ingram reminds a lot of scouts of Emmitt Smith, so that's good enough for me. He won't wow anyone with his 40 times, but his balance and vision give him a chance to be a special back.
Honorable mention:
1. Andy Dalton, QB, TCU: Two of the scouts brought up TCU quarterback Andy Dalton's name in terms of the "safest" quarterback in the draft. He's made the biggest move of any quarterback. Keep your eye on the Bengals in the second round with Dalton. He was labeled as a "system" quarterback early on in the draft process, but he impressed everyone during his workouts and interviews. Everything about him shouts "winning!" to borrow a phrase from a noted sports enthusiast.
2. Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida: Best interior lineman in the draft. And it can only help his cause that his twin, Maurkice, was so effective for the Steelers last season. He came away from his interview at Valley Ranch convinced he'd be taken by the Cowboys, but Jerry Jones leaves that impression with a lot of players.
Obligatory Baylor reference: G Danny Watkins will be an absolute steal late in the first round or early in the second. Had the pleasure to watch about 14 of his games in person. Has a nasty streak that goes back to his playing hockey in Canada.
