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New Orleans traded value, but loaded up. Did the Vikings panic with their QB pick?
By Mel Kiper
ESPN Insider
NEW YORK -- There were some surprises on Day 1 of the 2011 NFL draft, but also a lot of things that went as I thought they might. The first six picks from the final mock all came through, albeit with a surprise at No. 6, where Julio Jones went to Atlanta. The big theme was obviously the early run on quarterbacks. I didn't have a single quarterback rated higher than No. 14 on my final Big Board, but four had been taken by the time the Vikings had made their selection at No. 12.
That, of course, is a perfect example of how you have to gauge needs versus overall value. It's a constant tug-of-war and when you're here at the draft, you really get a sense of that tension involved when a team in front of you surprises with a pick, and you have to adjust and have your plan ready. That all said, here are the moves I like and a few questions I had from Day 1 at Radio City.
Three I liked
New Orleans Saints
The picks: Cameron Jordan (24), Mark Ingram (28)
Summary: New Orleans gave up some value by ceding a 2012 first-round pick to the Patriots, but they got a lot in return, and given what they have and what they were able to add on Thursday, nobody involved in the trade will expect that Round 1 pick to be a high one in 2012. Jordan is a tremendous value at No. 24. I thought he could go as high as No. 9 overall to Dallas, so you get a ton of value there. This is a smart, versatile player who can get after the quarterback. Then the Saints got the No. 1 running back in the draft all the way down at No. 28. So they get two really good fits, plus the value, and that's a great first day. (And the obvious tip of the cap to the Patriots, who continue to turn keep piling up picks.)
Arizona Cardinals
The picks: Patrick Peterson (5)
Summary: Arizona feels it can be a contender in 2011 if it has a quarterback. And the Cardinals knew that a rookie quarterback isn't the answer when you're talking about a team with playoff aspirations. So at No. 5 they took the best football player in the draft, and didn't get pulled into the run on quarterbacks. What does that mean? Well, clearly they can grab an arm later, but it also means they are going to look to the free-agent and trade markets for a quarterback. If you want to connect dots, remember that Philly really needs a cornerback, and has a quarterback the Cardinals might want to acquire in Kevin Kolb. Bottom line: In Peterson you have a gifted football player who makes you better immediately, and have made yourself an appealing destination for a quarterback who wants to move.
Detroit Lions
The picks: Nick Fairley (13)
Summary: Nobody benefited more from the run on quarterbacks than Detroit, who gets a player that could have landed among the top five picks all the way down at No. 13. I know the Lions need help in the secondary, but think about it this way: Nothing can help a secondary more than applying pressure on quarterbacks, and creating third-and-long situations. Then think about what the Lions have created up front with Ndamukong Suh and now Fairley. Both are disruptive, get after quarterbacks and play the run and the pass well. They can even be rotated. The line was getting good -- now it's a great strength.
Notables: I love the value the New York Jets got in grabbing Muhammed Wilkerson late. He fits the scheme perfectly. Robert Quinn is a great get for the St. Louis Rams. This is a player who has the talent to be in the mix as a No. 1 overall pick. He sat out a year and lost some ground, and St. Louis benefits. Peyton Manning has to be happy with the pick of Anthony Castonzo. That's a great get for the Colts. Impressed that the Redskins moved down. That's a franchise that needs picks, period. Baltimore had a deal fall through to move their pick, and dropped a spot, but still ended up with a big-time player at a position of need. That might be the ideal environment to give Smith the guidance he needs.
Three question marks
Minnesota Vikings
The picks: Christian Ponder (12)
Summary: First of all, this is no shot at Ponder, who some personnel folks believe might be the most ready-to-play quarterback in this draft. But the Vikings looked like a team that panicked with this pick, given the context. They had no shot to trade down? Andy Dalton is still available going into the second day, and in taking Ponder, you also passed on Fairley and Quinn, a couple of guys who can help this team. Again, it's not called "Pick your favorite player." It's a draft. Order and the value of each pick are components that factor in. Should note: This doesn't mean the Vikings are done looking for solutions at quarterback. They could target one in a trade or via free agency.
Atlanta Falcons
The picks: Julio Jones (6)
Summary: The question here certainly isn't about the player. Jones is a gifted athlete, perhaps the second best in the whole draft, and Roddy White needs somebody on the other side of the formation to help take the heat off. But they gave up a lot in terms of picks. To think Cincy took a much-needed wide receiver just two picks before them and gave up nothing, and you've given away a pair of first-round picks and three others, and it adds a little perspective. I doubt they'll regret having Jones around, but it's hard to get those picks back.
Seattle Seahawks
The picks: James Carpenter (25)
Summary: Credit the conviction of the Seahawks' front office. This team started 10 different offensive line combinations last year and it really set its offense back. The Seahawks are clearly determined to add talent and build continuity. But Carpenter is a guy they could have gotten later, in my opinion. Gabe Carimi and Derek Sherrod are still on the board, and either could shift to the right side.
Notables: We knew Tennessee liked Jake Locker. And while I don't think they could have gotten him if they traded down past No. 12, he's not ready to start, and they still have a void at quarterback. A little surprised that Cleveland gets so much value in trading down, then makes a move up only to get Phil Taylor. While Taylor is the best true anchor tackle in the draft, he could have been around for them later. Kansas City then reaches a bit themselves on Baldwin, a second-round talent in my book. Mike Pouncey will be a fine player, but isn't a remarkable value at No. 15 (even though I'd pegged him there in the mock).
Three to watch
• You have to feel for Da'Quan Bowers, a guy who has the talent to have gone safely inside the top 10. I also wonder if teams who think his knee checks out fine are being scared off by what other teams are doing. One team passes on a guy, and others start to think, "What did we miss?" But when healthy, Bowers is flat out elite. Someone could get a steal.
• Cincinnati has a headache at quarterback, not knowing how the Carson Palmer situation will play out. But consider that they can grab Andy Dalton in the second round and can say they've gotten the best wideout in the draft and a quarterback many had rated ahead of Ponder. Keep an eye on that pick.
• After Eric Berry went No. 4 last year, a position considered pretty high for a safety, notice not a single one has come off the board thus far in 2011. The first one will pretty early in Round 2, I'm guessing, and that should be Rahim Moore out of UCLA. Houston would be thrilled if he's available.
By Mel Kiper
ESPN Insider
NEW YORK -- There were some surprises on Day 1 of the 2011 NFL draft, but also a lot of things that went as I thought they might. The first six picks from the final mock all came through, albeit with a surprise at No. 6, where Julio Jones went to Atlanta. The big theme was obviously the early run on quarterbacks. I didn't have a single quarterback rated higher than No. 14 on my final Big Board, but four had been taken by the time the Vikings had made their selection at No. 12.
That, of course, is a perfect example of how you have to gauge needs versus overall value. It's a constant tug-of-war and when you're here at the draft, you really get a sense of that tension involved when a team in front of you surprises with a pick, and you have to adjust and have your plan ready. That all said, here are the moves I like and a few questions I had from Day 1 at Radio City.
Three I liked
New Orleans Saints
The picks: Cameron Jordan (24), Mark Ingram (28)
Summary: New Orleans gave up some value by ceding a 2012 first-round pick to the Patriots, but they got a lot in return, and given what they have and what they were able to add on Thursday, nobody involved in the trade will expect that Round 1 pick to be a high one in 2012. Jordan is a tremendous value at No. 24. I thought he could go as high as No. 9 overall to Dallas, so you get a ton of value there. This is a smart, versatile player who can get after the quarterback. Then the Saints got the No. 1 running back in the draft all the way down at No. 28. So they get two really good fits, plus the value, and that's a great first day. (And the obvious tip of the cap to the Patriots, who continue to turn keep piling up picks.)
Arizona Cardinals
The picks: Patrick Peterson (5)
Summary: Arizona feels it can be a contender in 2011 if it has a quarterback. And the Cardinals knew that a rookie quarterback isn't the answer when you're talking about a team with playoff aspirations. So at No. 5 they took the best football player in the draft, and didn't get pulled into the run on quarterbacks. What does that mean? Well, clearly they can grab an arm later, but it also means they are going to look to the free-agent and trade markets for a quarterback. If you want to connect dots, remember that Philly really needs a cornerback, and has a quarterback the Cardinals might want to acquire in Kevin Kolb. Bottom line: In Peterson you have a gifted football player who makes you better immediately, and have made yourself an appealing destination for a quarterback who wants to move.
Detroit Lions
The picks: Nick Fairley (13)
Summary: Nobody benefited more from the run on quarterbacks than Detroit, who gets a player that could have landed among the top five picks all the way down at No. 13. I know the Lions need help in the secondary, but think about it this way: Nothing can help a secondary more than applying pressure on quarterbacks, and creating third-and-long situations. Then think about what the Lions have created up front with Ndamukong Suh and now Fairley. Both are disruptive, get after quarterbacks and play the run and the pass well. They can even be rotated. The line was getting good -- now it's a great strength.
Notables: I love the value the New York Jets got in grabbing Muhammed Wilkerson late. He fits the scheme perfectly. Robert Quinn is a great get for the St. Louis Rams. This is a player who has the talent to be in the mix as a No. 1 overall pick. He sat out a year and lost some ground, and St. Louis benefits. Peyton Manning has to be happy with the pick of Anthony Castonzo. That's a great get for the Colts. Impressed that the Redskins moved down. That's a franchise that needs picks, period. Baltimore had a deal fall through to move their pick, and dropped a spot, but still ended up with a big-time player at a position of need. That might be the ideal environment to give Smith the guidance he needs.
Three question marks
Minnesota Vikings
The picks: Christian Ponder (12)
Summary: First of all, this is no shot at Ponder, who some personnel folks believe might be the most ready-to-play quarterback in this draft. But the Vikings looked like a team that panicked with this pick, given the context. They had no shot to trade down? Andy Dalton is still available going into the second day, and in taking Ponder, you also passed on Fairley and Quinn, a couple of guys who can help this team. Again, it's not called "Pick your favorite player." It's a draft. Order and the value of each pick are components that factor in. Should note: This doesn't mean the Vikings are done looking for solutions at quarterback. They could target one in a trade or via free agency.
Atlanta Falcons
The picks: Julio Jones (6)
Summary: The question here certainly isn't about the player. Jones is a gifted athlete, perhaps the second best in the whole draft, and Roddy White needs somebody on the other side of the formation to help take the heat off. But they gave up a lot in terms of picks. To think Cincy took a much-needed wide receiver just two picks before them and gave up nothing, and you've given away a pair of first-round picks and three others, and it adds a little perspective. I doubt they'll regret having Jones around, but it's hard to get those picks back.
Seattle Seahawks
The picks: James Carpenter (25)
Summary: Credit the conviction of the Seahawks' front office. This team started 10 different offensive line combinations last year and it really set its offense back. The Seahawks are clearly determined to add talent and build continuity. But Carpenter is a guy they could have gotten later, in my opinion. Gabe Carimi and Derek Sherrod are still on the board, and either could shift to the right side.
Notables: We knew Tennessee liked Jake Locker. And while I don't think they could have gotten him if they traded down past No. 12, he's not ready to start, and they still have a void at quarterback. A little surprised that Cleveland gets so much value in trading down, then makes a move up only to get Phil Taylor. While Taylor is the best true anchor tackle in the draft, he could have been around for them later. Kansas City then reaches a bit themselves on Baldwin, a second-round talent in my book. Mike Pouncey will be a fine player, but isn't a remarkable value at No. 15 (even though I'd pegged him there in the mock).
Three to watch
• You have to feel for Da'Quan Bowers, a guy who has the talent to have gone safely inside the top 10. I also wonder if teams who think his knee checks out fine are being scared off by what other teams are doing. One team passes on a guy, and others start to think, "What did we miss?" But when healthy, Bowers is flat out elite. Someone could get a steal.
• Cincinnati has a headache at quarterback, not knowing how the Carson Palmer situation will play out. But consider that they can grab Andy Dalton in the second round and can say they've gotten the best wideout in the draft and a quarterback many had rated ahead of Ponder. Keep an eye on that pick.
• After Eric Berry went No. 4 last year, a position considered pretty high for a safety, notice not a single one has come off the board thus far in 2011. The first one will pretty early in Round 2, I'm guessing, and that should be Rahim Moore out of UCLA. Houston would be thrilled if he's available.