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New No. 1 in latest mock draft
Variety of factors leads to mock draft changes up and down the board
By Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.
The 2011 NFL draft is just a few weeks away and things are finally beginning to come into focus.
All of our game-tape evaluations are in the books. From this point on the only minor shakeups to our draft board will be directly linked to information from NFL teams regarding player red flags such as durability and character concerns.
Plus, because the lockout is preventing NFL players from moving, free agency isn't changing team needs like it usually does.
I've expanded my latest projection to cover the first three rounds and here's how I see things playing out.
1) Carolina Panthers
Record: 2-14
* Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Newton is not the No. 1 player on my board -- that would be Alabama DT Marcell Dareus -- and defensive tackle is as much of a need as quarterback, but I'm hearing a lot of buzz from people in the league that Carolina is leaning toward a quarterback. I'm also hearing the Panthers favor Newton over Missouri's Blaine Gabbert, and where there's smoke there's often fire. It's not that Gabbert's stock is falling, it's just that Carolina apparently likes Newton's incredible physical tools and immense upside.
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2) Denver Broncos
Record: 4-12
* Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
The Broncos are in desperate need of a true impact defensive tackle to anchor new coach John Fox's 4-3 defense and will be holding their breath until Carolina picks. Denver will be thrilled if Dareus falls here because he fits the mold of an every-down difference-maker and also carries minimal baggage.
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3) Buffalo Bills
Record: 4-12
Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M
The Bills' most significant need is at left offensive tackle but there is not one on the board worth this pick and, although Gabbert would eventually provide a major upgrade at quarterback, Miller would be an immediate boost for a 3-4 defense that is in dire need of pass rushers. Former first-round pick Aaron Maybin has not realized his enormous potential and Miller is a plug-and-play impact rusher who could help fill the void by quickly becoming a double-digit sack man.
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4) Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 4-12
* A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
I'd sure like to be a fly on the wall in Cincinnati's draft room this year. It is clear as day that QB Carson Palmer has no intention of ever wearing a Bengals uniform again, but the team is standing firm to this point on Palmer as its starter, at least in the short term. Gabbert would make sense as a backup plan but I don't get the feeling the team is going to let Palmer off the hook that easily. Green is a higher-rated prospect anyway and has the physical tools to help the team move on after the departures of Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. Green's size, athleticism and ball skills will make him the next big NFL star at wide receiver.
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5) Arizona Cardinals
Record: 5-11
* Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
With Miller off the board, Gabbert is a no-brainer here. The Cardinals might have a trying season in 2011 with a rookie quarterback at the helm but the team cannot believe that Max Hall or John Skelton is the long-term answer at the position. Gabbert might not be the first quarterback off the board but I believe his combination of intangibles, mental makeup and accuracy will make him the best quarterback from the 2011 class when all is said and done.
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6) Cleveland Browns
Record: 5-11
Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
It appeared at one point that Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers would be a steal here but concerns about Bowers' injured knee continue to increase. Quinn, meanwhile, is coming off a strong pro day workout, and while he's not as stout against the run he offers significantly more upside than Bowers as a pass rusher. Adding an impact right defensive end like Quinn would be a great start for the Browns as they transition to a 4-3 defense.
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7) San Francisco 49ers
Record: 6-10
* Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Yes, the 49ers need a quarterback, but they would still hit the jackpot with Peterson. You'd be hard-pressed to find an NFL general manager who doesn't have Peterson as one of the top five overall players on the board, and for many teams he's in the discussion as the No. 1 overall prospect. San Francisco simply can't pass on the opportunity to fill a need with a player like Peterson. And new coach Jim Harbaugh likely has enough confidence in his ability to develop quarterbacks that he feels he can wait until the second round (or trade up into the end of the first) to get someone like Christian Ponder or Andy Dalton.
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8) Tennessee Titans
Record: 6-10
* Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
The Titans picked offensive skill players in the first round in 2008 and 2009 (RB Chris Johnson, WR Kenny Britt), but this year could mark a second straight defensive lineman in the first round after Tennessee took DE Derrick Morgan in 2010. Fairley is the most naturally gifted interior pass rusher in this draft and has a lot of upside, but the Titans need to decide if they are willing to take a chance on a player who could be a perennial Pro Bowler or turn into the next big DT bust thanks to questionable work ethic and football character.
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9) Dallas Cowboys
Record: 6-10
* Tyron Smith, OT, USC
This is not a splash pick but the Cowboys have a big need at offensive tackle and this is the area where the run on the top OTs will likely begin. And it's always better to be on the front end of a run than chasing it from behind. Dallas needs to protect QB Tony Romo and it appears current RT Marc Colombo is on his last leg, making Smith a good fit. He has the ability to play on either side and Smith's upside is greater than any other tackle in this draft.
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10) Washington Redskins
Record: 6-10
Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
Jones is worth the pick despite recent surgery to repair a fracture in his foot, and in addition to his pass catching ability he is a perfect fit in an offensive system that requires its receivers to play big roles as blockers in the running game. The Redskins also need major help along the defensive front seven and could trade back in order to get more picks with which to address that need, but if they stay put here Jones makes the most sense.
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11) Houston Texans
Record: 6-10
Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple
With Miller and Quinn gone there is no outside linebacker on the board who can address the Texans' need for a pass rusher, and while California's Cameron Jordan or Wisconsin's J.J. Watt could also be the pick I believe Wilkerson has more upside than any other 3-4 end in this draft. Houston also has a need at cornerback, but new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips believes that if he has a solid front seven he can live with an average secondary.
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12) Minnesota Vikings
Record:6-10
Cameron Jordan, DE, California
Minnesota's biggest need is at quarterback but any of the remaining QBs on the board would be a reach here. Offensive tackle is another need area and Boston College's Anthony Castonzo or Colorado's Nate Solder are possibilities, but with two defensive ends from last year -- Ray Edwards and Brian Robison -- set to hit free agency, Jordan provides better value than an offensive tackle. Bowers will be in play if his knee checks out but Jordan is a good option given his size, quickness, power and versatility.
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13) Detroit Lions
Record: 6-10
Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
This is the dream scenario for Detroit. With Peterson falling to the 49ers the door is open for Amukamara to slide to the Lions, who could address their biggest need with one of the top eight players on my board. Put Amukamara and his size, speed and instincts opposite Lions CB Chris Houston and Detroit suddenly has one of the better young cornerback tandems in the league.
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14) St. Louis Rams
Record: 7-9
Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
Rams fans are surely crossing their fingers that Jones will fall to this point but that seems unlikely, and there is no outside linebacker on the board who can fill the Rams' second-biggest need. Several players could offer value here but Liuget would fill the biggest need. He is on the short side but is quick, stout and powerful, and his motor never stops running. And if there's anything we've learned about Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo it's that he can never have enough quality defensive linemen.
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15) Miami Dolphins
Record: 7-9
Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida
At first glance this might seem a bit high for an interior offensive lineman, especially with so much talk about Alabama RB Mark Ingram landing in Miami and filling the Dolphins' top need, but NFL running backs have a short shelf life to begin with and Ingram comes to the league one year removed from a knee injury that limited his playing time in 2010. Rather than reaching for a quarterback to fill their No. 2 need, the Dolphins would be best-served to draft the best available offensive lineman in Pouncey, who has the tools and attitude to do for Miami's interior offensive line what his twin brother, Maurkice, did for the Steelers in 2010.
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16) Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 8-8
Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
The Jaguars have bigger needs but defensive end offers the most value here. I would be tempted to take a shot on Bowers or the upside offered by Missouri's Aldon Smith here, but Jags GM Gene Smith has proved he will take the player with the higher floor rather than the higher ceiling. Kerrigan has some limitations but Jacksonville knows exactly what it would be getting, which is a player with the overall skill set to immediately push for a starting job opposite Jaguars DE Aaron Kampman.
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17) New England Patriots (from Oakland)
Record: 14-2
J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
Watt is best-suited for the kind of three-man front New England runs, which can utilize him primarily as a 5-technique but is also flexible enough to move him around and take advantage of his ability to do some things in space. The Patriots are always a trade possibility but because they already have six picks in the first three rounds it makes sense to address their needs along the front seven at this point.
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18) San Diego Chargers
Record: 9-7
Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri
Some teams likely view Smith as a right end in a 4-3 scheme but I think he has the potential to transition to outside linebacker in a 3-4. The Chargers have gotten only three career sacks from 2009 first-round pick Larry English and need a 3-4 pass rusher who can take some pressure off OLB Shaun Phillips. While Smith still has some developing to do, he can pressure the quarterback in tight spaces, which is important for a 3-4 OLB.
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19) New York Giants
Record: 10-6
Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
The ideal scenario for the Giants is Pouncey falling to them, and trading back is also a possibility if the right player is not available. Their biggest need is for a difference maker at linebacker and Ingram could also be in play, but with no impact linebacker available the best offensive lineman on the board would be the best option. Castonzo could play inside at guard as a rookie and then kick out to tackle, or the Giants could plug him in at tackle immediately and shuffle their existing personnel. Either way, Castonzo has the ability to be a quality starter for the next decade and the Giants would do well to start addressing the future of their offensive line.
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20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 10-6
Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
The results of Bowers' re-check with NFL combine doctors and medical checks from team doctors during visits are still to come, but based strictly on his football skills Bowers is a top-10 talent. He's not truly elite because he is not an exceptional pass rusher but he brings everything else to the table and at this point is worth the risk. Tampa Bay has a huge need at end and this is a good spot to take a risk. If Bowers pans out alongside 2010 picks Gerald McCoy and Brian Price, the Bucs would have a revitalized defensive line to build around.
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21) Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 10-6
Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
Kansas City needs a nose tackle and a wide receiver but this is early for any of the true NTs on the board and there will be plenty of wideouts available in later rounds who can take advantage of the attention defenses pay to Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe. Chiefs GM Scott Pioli has a history of drafting NFL-ready players with little or no baggage and, while Solder has more upside, Carimi would step in to provide an immediate upgrade and be a solid starter for years to come.
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22) Indianapolis Colts
Record: 10-6
Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
This one is a no-brainer. The Colts' offensive line has struggled mightily over the last couple of seasons and Indianapolis must upgrade there. Not only do the Colts need to protect the face of their franchise in QB Peyton Manning, they also need to address a running game that ranked 29th in the NFL last season. Solder is a good fit for an offense that emphasizes quickness and athleticism over brute strength.
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23) Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 10-6
Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
I struggled with this pick more than any other in the first round, having a hard time finding a player who fits Philadelphia's needs and was worthy of the pick. In the end, guard and tackle are priorities and Sherrod has the versatility to contribute at both positions. He's not explosive or dominant and is a bit of a reach here, but Sherrod consistently gets into position and rarely makes mistakes, and recent off-field issues for current OT Jason Peters could increase the urgency to address the offensive line. The Eagles could also consider the top available cornerbacks here, but all come with questions.
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24) New Orleans Saints
Record: 11-5
Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
There are some red flags surrounding Clayborn because he suffers from Erb's palsy, a condition stemming from difficult childbirth that affects the strength and range of motion in his right arm. However, he has top-20 talent and could provide pass-rush help right away at right end. Clayborn would help take some pressure off defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who was forced to blitz more than he would like last season, and a secondary that was asked to do too much in 2010. How bad was the New Orleans pass rush last season? There were seven games in which the Saints recorded one or no sacks.
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25) Seattle Seahawks
Record: 7-9
Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Locker is worth a late-first round pick in my opinion but there are some questions about whether he is a fit in Seattle's West Coast offense, which requires accurate throws and quick decisions in the pocket. However, new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell comes in from Minnesota and brings a scheme that showed a lot of variety in recent seasons depending on the quarterback and also used the running game to set up play-action/bootleg packages. Bevell is capable of tweaking his offense to get Locker working on the run outside the pocket, where he is at his best. The ideal situation would be to bring free agent Matt Hasselbeck back on a short-term deal to help mentor Locker and give him time to develop.
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26) Baltimore Ravens
Record: 12-4
Brandon Harris, CB, Miami
With no worthy offensive tackle to fill a need and wide receivers available later who can address holes at that position, this pick comes down to a defensive end like Ohio State's Cameron Heyward or a cornerback like Harris. Heyward comes with some medical concerns after offseason Tommy John surgery on his elbow and the risk might be too great after last year's first-round end, Sergio Kindle, did not play in 2010 because of injury. Colorado CB Jimmy Smith is more talented than Harris but comes with a lot of character flags, and while Harris needs some work he has the speed and athleticism to contribute as a sub-package corner early on and eventually become a starter.
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27) Atlanta Falcons
Record: 13-3
Brooks Reed, DE, Arizona
The Falcons are in the market for a pass rusher who can keep DE John Abraham fresh and be groomed as Abraham's eventual replacement, and while Reed's ideal fit is at 3-4 outside linebacker he has good size (6-foot-3, 263 pounds) and is a similar player to the Eagles' Brandon Graham, who the Falcons had interest in last year. Also, history tells us Atlanta prefers to draft seniors and Reed is an experienced player coming off a productive senior season.
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28) New England Patriots
Record: 14-2
Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
I don't think the Patriots are eager to draft a running back in the first round but it is a position of need and if the only back with a first-round grade falls to them I expect Bill Belichick to cash in.
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29) Chicago Bears
Record: 11-5
Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
Austin carries a second-round grade and would be a reach here, but there is a big dropoff in this class in the mid-20s and at this point the Bears could take any of about 15-20 players and not see a big difference in talent level. That offsets some of the reach, and the Bears are also desperate for an impact 3-technique tackle who can anchor the front in their Tampa 2 system. Austin is the only tackle on the board with the potential to do that, and if the Bears do their homework and are comfortable they have answered any character questions and can keep Austin focused, this could be an interesting surprise pick.
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30) New York Jets
Record: 11-5
Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
The Jets' search for a 3-4 nose tackle could follow the same logic as Chicago's for a 3-technique. Taylor is thick and can anchor against the run and he moves well for a big guy, but he also comes with some character baggage and his motor runs hot and cold. He would end up with a very good defensive coaching staff in New York, though, and the Jets have a need to groom the next centerpiece for their front seven. It's either Taylor with this pick or taking a chance on someone like Hampton's Kenrick Ellis in the third round.
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31) Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 12-4
Danny Watkins, G, Baylor
What do you think the Las Vegas odds would have been at the start of the 2010 season that Baylor would have back-to-back picks in the first round? In all seriousness, Watkins is solid in pass protection and as a run blocker and brings a nasty disposition to the table. He would be a nice fit next to 2010 first-rounder and Pro Bowler Maurkice Pouncey. The Steelers could also opt for a cornerback like Williams or Harris, but the interior offensive line is Pittsburgh's top need.
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32) Green Bay Packers
Record: 10-6
Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
The defending Super Bowl champions have a very good nose tackle in B.J. Raji but injuries, free agency and off-field issues have created all kinds of questions at defensive end. If Heyward checks out medically he would be a steal here with his strength, motor and versatility.
Round 2
33. New England (from Car.) - Clint Boling OG Georgia
34. Buffalo - Christian Ponder QB Florida State
35. Cincinnati - Andy Dalton QB TCU
36. Denver - Kyle Rudolph TE Notre Dame
37. Cleveland - Stephen Paea DT Oregon State
38. Arizona - Akeem Ayers OLB UCLA
39. Tennessee - Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas
40. Dallas - Aaron Williams DB Texas
41. Washington - Colin Kaepernick QB Nevada
42. Houston - Justin Houston OLB Georgia
43. Minnesota - Marcus Cannon OT TCU
44. Detroit - Bruce Carter LB North Carolina
45. San Francisco - Mikel Leshoure RB Illinois
46. Denver (from Miami) - Rahim Moore S UCLA
47. St. Louis - Randall Cobb WR Kentucky
48. Oakland - Jimmy Smith CB Colorado
49. Jacksonville - Mason Foster LB Washington
50. San Diego - Allen Bailey DE Miami (FL)
51. Tampa Bay - Ras-I Dowling CB Virginia
52. New York Giants - Ryan Williams RB Virginia Tech
53. Indianapolis - Christian Ballard DL Iowa
54. Philadelphia - Martez Wilson LB Illinois
55. Kansas City - Kelvin Sheppard ILB LSU
56. New Orleans - Jurrell Casey DT USC
57. Seattle - Orlando Franklin G Miami (FL)
58. Baltimore - Torrey Smith WR Maryland
59. Atlanta - Titus Young WR Boise State
60. New England - James Carpenter OT Alabama
61. San Diego (from NY Jets) - Jonathan Baldwin WR Pittsburgh
62. Chicago - Benjamin Ijalana OT Villanova
63. Pittsburgh - Johnny Patrick CB Louisville
64. Green Bay - William Rackley G Lehigh
Round 3
65. Carolina - Jarvis Jenkins DT Clemson
66. Cincinnati - Kendall Hunter RB Oklahoma State
67. Denver - Quan Sturdivant LB North Carolina
68. Buffalo - Lance Kendricks TE Wisconsin
69. Arizona - Marcus Gilbert OT Florida
70. Cleveland - Leonard Hankerson WR Miami (FL)
71. Dallas - Brandon Hogan CB West Virginia
72. New Orleans (from Wash) - Rodney Hudson G/C Florida State
73. Houston - Jaiquawn Jarrett S Temple
74. New England (from Minn.) - Jabaal Sheard DE Pittsburgh
75. Detroit - Daniel Thomas RB Kansas State
76. San Francisco - Kenrick Ellis NT Hampton
77. Tennessee - Curtis Brown CB Texas
78. St. Louis - Johnny White RB North Carolina
79. Miami - Dion Lewis RB Pittsburgh
80. Jacksonville - Greg Little WR North Carolina
81. Oakland - Virgil Green TE Nevada
82. San Diego - Lee Ziemba OT Auburn
83. New York Giants - Terrell McClain DT South Florida
84. Tampa Bay - Shane Vereen RB California
85. Philadelphia - Joshua Thomas CB Buffalo
86. Kansas City - Tandon Doss WR Indiana
87. Indianapolis - John Moffitt G Wisconsin
88. New Orleans - Joseph Lefeged S Rutgers
89. San Diego (from Seattle) - Colin McCarthy LB Miami (FL)
90. Baltimore - James Brewer OT Indiana
91. Atlanta - Kendric Burney CB North Carolina
92. New England - Marcus Gilchrist DB Clemson
93. Chicago - Gregory Salas Hawaii
94. New York Jets - Jerrel Jernigan WR Troy
95. Pittsburgh - Luke Stocker TE Tennessee
96. Green Bay - Christopher Carter OLB Fresno State
97. Carolina (compensatory) - Edmund Gates WR Abilene Christian
Todd McShay is the director of college scouting for Scouts Inc. and has been evaluating prospects for the NFL draft since 1998. Scouts Inc.'s Steve Muench and Kevin Weidl also contributed to this story.
Variety of factors leads to mock draft changes up and down the board
By Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.
The 2011 NFL draft is just a few weeks away and things are finally beginning to come into focus.
All of our game-tape evaluations are in the books. From this point on the only minor shakeups to our draft board will be directly linked to information from NFL teams regarding player red flags such as durability and character concerns.
Plus, because the lockout is preventing NFL players from moving, free agency isn't changing team needs like it usually does.
I've expanded my latest projection to cover the first three rounds and here's how I see things playing out.
1) Carolina Panthers
Record: 2-14
* Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Newton is not the No. 1 player on my board -- that would be Alabama DT Marcell Dareus -- and defensive tackle is as much of a need as quarterback, but I'm hearing a lot of buzz from people in the league that Carolina is leaning toward a quarterback. I'm also hearing the Panthers favor Newton over Missouri's Blaine Gabbert, and where there's smoke there's often fire. It's not that Gabbert's stock is falling, it's just that Carolina apparently likes Newton's incredible physical tools and immense upside.
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2) Denver Broncos
Record: 4-12
* Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
The Broncos are in desperate need of a true impact defensive tackle to anchor new coach John Fox's 4-3 defense and will be holding their breath until Carolina picks. Denver will be thrilled if Dareus falls here because he fits the mold of an every-down difference-maker and also carries minimal baggage.
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3) Buffalo Bills
Record: 4-12
Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M
The Bills' most significant need is at left offensive tackle but there is not one on the board worth this pick and, although Gabbert would eventually provide a major upgrade at quarterback, Miller would be an immediate boost for a 3-4 defense that is in dire need of pass rushers. Former first-round pick Aaron Maybin has not realized his enormous potential and Miller is a plug-and-play impact rusher who could help fill the void by quickly becoming a double-digit sack man.
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4) Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 4-12
* A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
I'd sure like to be a fly on the wall in Cincinnati's draft room this year. It is clear as day that QB Carson Palmer has no intention of ever wearing a Bengals uniform again, but the team is standing firm to this point on Palmer as its starter, at least in the short term. Gabbert would make sense as a backup plan but I don't get the feeling the team is going to let Palmer off the hook that easily. Green is a higher-rated prospect anyway and has the physical tools to help the team move on after the departures of Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. Green's size, athleticism and ball skills will make him the next big NFL star at wide receiver.
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5) Arizona Cardinals
Record: 5-11
* Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
With Miller off the board, Gabbert is a no-brainer here. The Cardinals might have a trying season in 2011 with a rookie quarterback at the helm but the team cannot believe that Max Hall or John Skelton is the long-term answer at the position. Gabbert might not be the first quarterback off the board but I believe his combination of intangibles, mental makeup and accuracy will make him the best quarterback from the 2011 class when all is said and done.
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6) Cleveland Browns
Record: 5-11
Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
It appeared at one point that Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers would be a steal here but concerns about Bowers' injured knee continue to increase. Quinn, meanwhile, is coming off a strong pro day workout, and while he's not as stout against the run he offers significantly more upside than Bowers as a pass rusher. Adding an impact right defensive end like Quinn would be a great start for the Browns as they transition to a 4-3 defense.
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7) San Francisco 49ers
Record: 6-10
* Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Yes, the 49ers need a quarterback, but they would still hit the jackpot with Peterson. You'd be hard-pressed to find an NFL general manager who doesn't have Peterson as one of the top five overall players on the board, and for many teams he's in the discussion as the No. 1 overall prospect. San Francisco simply can't pass on the opportunity to fill a need with a player like Peterson. And new coach Jim Harbaugh likely has enough confidence in his ability to develop quarterbacks that he feels he can wait until the second round (or trade up into the end of the first) to get someone like Christian Ponder or Andy Dalton.
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8) Tennessee Titans
Record: 6-10
* Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
The Titans picked offensive skill players in the first round in 2008 and 2009 (RB Chris Johnson, WR Kenny Britt), but this year could mark a second straight defensive lineman in the first round after Tennessee took DE Derrick Morgan in 2010. Fairley is the most naturally gifted interior pass rusher in this draft and has a lot of upside, but the Titans need to decide if they are willing to take a chance on a player who could be a perennial Pro Bowler or turn into the next big DT bust thanks to questionable work ethic and football character.
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9) Dallas Cowboys
Record: 6-10
* Tyron Smith, OT, USC
This is not a splash pick but the Cowboys have a big need at offensive tackle and this is the area where the run on the top OTs will likely begin. And it's always better to be on the front end of a run than chasing it from behind. Dallas needs to protect QB Tony Romo and it appears current RT Marc Colombo is on his last leg, making Smith a good fit. He has the ability to play on either side and Smith's upside is greater than any other tackle in this draft.
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10) Washington Redskins
Record: 6-10
Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
Jones is worth the pick despite recent surgery to repair a fracture in his foot, and in addition to his pass catching ability he is a perfect fit in an offensive system that requires its receivers to play big roles as blockers in the running game. The Redskins also need major help along the defensive front seven and could trade back in order to get more picks with which to address that need, but if they stay put here Jones makes the most sense.
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11) Houston Texans
Record: 6-10
Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple
With Miller and Quinn gone there is no outside linebacker on the board who can address the Texans' need for a pass rusher, and while California's Cameron Jordan or Wisconsin's J.J. Watt could also be the pick I believe Wilkerson has more upside than any other 3-4 end in this draft. Houston also has a need at cornerback, but new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips believes that if he has a solid front seven he can live with an average secondary.
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12) Minnesota Vikings
Record:6-10
Cameron Jordan, DE, California
Minnesota's biggest need is at quarterback but any of the remaining QBs on the board would be a reach here. Offensive tackle is another need area and Boston College's Anthony Castonzo or Colorado's Nate Solder are possibilities, but with two defensive ends from last year -- Ray Edwards and Brian Robison -- set to hit free agency, Jordan provides better value than an offensive tackle. Bowers will be in play if his knee checks out but Jordan is a good option given his size, quickness, power and versatility.
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13) Detroit Lions
Record: 6-10
Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
This is the dream scenario for Detroit. With Peterson falling to the 49ers the door is open for Amukamara to slide to the Lions, who could address their biggest need with one of the top eight players on my board. Put Amukamara and his size, speed and instincts opposite Lions CB Chris Houston and Detroit suddenly has one of the better young cornerback tandems in the league.
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14) St. Louis Rams
Record: 7-9
Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
Rams fans are surely crossing their fingers that Jones will fall to this point but that seems unlikely, and there is no outside linebacker on the board who can fill the Rams' second-biggest need. Several players could offer value here but Liuget would fill the biggest need. He is on the short side but is quick, stout and powerful, and his motor never stops running. And if there's anything we've learned about Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo it's that he can never have enough quality defensive linemen.
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15) Miami Dolphins
Record: 7-9
Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida
At first glance this might seem a bit high for an interior offensive lineman, especially with so much talk about Alabama RB Mark Ingram landing in Miami and filling the Dolphins' top need, but NFL running backs have a short shelf life to begin with and Ingram comes to the league one year removed from a knee injury that limited his playing time in 2010. Rather than reaching for a quarterback to fill their No. 2 need, the Dolphins would be best-served to draft the best available offensive lineman in Pouncey, who has the tools and attitude to do for Miami's interior offensive line what his twin brother, Maurkice, did for the Steelers in 2010.
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16) Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 8-8
Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
The Jaguars have bigger needs but defensive end offers the most value here. I would be tempted to take a shot on Bowers or the upside offered by Missouri's Aldon Smith here, but Jags GM Gene Smith has proved he will take the player with the higher floor rather than the higher ceiling. Kerrigan has some limitations but Jacksonville knows exactly what it would be getting, which is a player with the overall skill set to immediately push for a starting job opposite Jaguars DE Aaron Kampman.
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17) New England Patriots (from Oakland)
Record: 14-2
J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
Watt is best-suited for the kind of three-man front New England runs, which can utilize him primarily as a 5-technique but is also flexible enough to move him around and take advantage of his ability to do some things in space. The Patriots are always a trade possibility but because they already have six picks in the first three rounds it makes sense to address their needs along the front seven at this point.
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18) San Diego Chargers
Record: 9-7
Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri
Some teams likely view Smith as a right end in a 4-3 scheme but I think he has the potential to transition to outside linebacker in a 3-4. The Chargers have gotten only three career sacks from 2009 first-round pick Larry English and need a 3-4 pass rusher who can take some pressure off OLB Shaun Phillips. While Smith still has some developing to do, he can pressure the quarterback in tight spaces, which is important for a 3-4 OLB.
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19) New York Giants
Record: 10-6
Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
The ideal scenario for the Giants is Pouncey falling to them, and trading back is also a possibility if the right player is not available. Their biggest need is for a difference maker at linebacker and Ingram could also be in play, but with no impact linebacker available the best offensive lineman on the board would be the best option. Castonzo could play inside at guard as a rookie and then kick out to tackle, or the Giants could plug him in at tackle immediately and shuffle their existing personnel. Either way, Castonzo has the ability to be a quality starter for the next decade and the Giants would do well to start addressing the future of their offensive line.
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20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 10-6
Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
The results of Bowers' re-check with NFL combine doctors and medical checks from team doctors during visits are still to come, but based strictly on his football skills Bowers is a top-10 talent. He's not truly elite because he is not an exceptional pass rusher but he brings everything else to the table and at this point is worth the risk. Tampa Bay has a huge need at end and this is a good spot to take a risk. If Bowers pans out alongside 2010 picks Gerald McCoy and Brian Price, the Bucs would have a revitalized defensive line to build around.
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21) Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 10-6
Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
Kansas City needs a nose tackle and a wide receiver but this is early for any of the true NTs on the board and there will be plenty of wideouts available in later rounds who can take advantage of the attention defenses pay to Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe. Chiefs GM Scott Pioli has a history of drafting NFL-ready players with little or no baggage and, while Solder has more upside, Carimi would step in to provide an immediate upgrade and be a solid starter for years to come.
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22) Indianapolis Colts
Record: 10-6
Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
This one is a no-brainer. The Colts' offensive line has struggled mightily over the last couple of seasons and Indianapolis must upgrade there. Not only do the Colts need to protect the face of their franchise in QB Peyton Manning, they also need to address a running game that ranked 29th in the NFL last season. Solder is a good fit for an offense that emphasizes quickness and athleticism over brute strength.
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23) Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 10-6
Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
I struggled with this pick more than any other in the first round, having a hard time finding a player who fits Philadelphia's needs and was worthy of the pick. In the end, guard and tackle are priorities and Sherrod has the versatility to contribute at both positions. He's not explosive or dominant and is a bit of a reach here, but Sherrod consistently gets into position and rarely makes mistakes, and recent off-field issues for current OT Jason Peters could increase the urgency to address the offensive line. The Eagles could also consider the top available cornerbacks here, but all come with questions.
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24) New Orleans Saints
Record: 11-5
Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
There are some red flags surrounding Clayborn because he suffers from Erb's palsy, a condition stemming from difficult childbirth that affects the strength and range of motion in his right arm. However, he has top-20 talent and could provide pass-rush help right away at right end. Clayborn would help take some pressure off defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who was forced to blitz more than he would like last season, and a secondary that was asked to do too much in 2010. How bad was the New Orleans pass rush last season? There were seven games in which the Saints recorded one or no sacks.
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25) Seattle Seahawks
Record: 7-9
Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Locker is worth a late-first round pick in my opinion but there are some questions about whether he is a fit in Seattle's West Coast offense, which requires accurate throws and quick decisions in the pocket. However, new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell comes in from Minnesota and brings a scheme that showed a lot of variety in recent seasons depending on the quarterback and also used the running game to set up play-action/bootleg packages. Bevell is capable of tweaking his offense to get Locker working on the run outside the pocket, where he is at his best. The ideal situation would be to bring free agent Matt Hasselbeck back on a short-term deal to help mentor Locker and give him time to develop.
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26) Baltimore Ravens
Record: 12-4
Brandon Harris, CB, Miami
With no worthy offensive tackle to fill a need and wide receivers available later who can address holes at that position, this pick comes down to a defensive end like Ohio State's Cameron Heyward or a cornerback like Harris. Heyward comes with some medical concerns after offseason Tommy John surgery on his elbow and the risk might be too great after last year's first-round end, Sergio Kindle, did not play in 2010 because of injury. Colorado CB Jimmy Smith is more talented than Harris but comes with a lot of character flags, and while Harris needs some work he has the speed and athleticism to contribute as a sub-package corner early on and eventually become a starter.
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27) Atlanta Falcons
Record: 13-3
Brooks Reed, DE, Arizona
The Falcons are in the market for a pass rusher who can keep DE John Abraham fresh and be groomed as Abraham's eventual replacement, and while Reed's ideal fit is at 3-4 outside linebacker he has good size (6-foot-3, 263 pounds) and is a similar player to the Eagles' Brandon Graham, who the Falcons had interest in last year. Also, history tells us Atlanta prefers to draft seniors and Reed is an experienced player coming off a productive senior season.
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28) New England Patriots
Record: 14-2
Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
I don't think the Patriots are eager to draft a running back in the first round but it is a position of need and if the only back with a first-round grade falls to them I expect Bill Belichick to cash in.
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29) Chicago Bears
Record: 11-5
Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
Austin carries a second-round grade and would be a reach here, but there is a big dropoff in this class in the mid-20s and at this point the Bears could take any of about 15-20 players and not see a big difference in talent level. That offsets some of the reach, and the Bears are also desperate for an impact 3-technique tackle who can anchor the front in their Tampa 2 system. Austin is the only tackle on the board with the potential to do that, and if the Bears do their homework and are comfortable they have answered any character questions and can keep Austin focused, this could be an interesting surprise pick.
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30) New York Jets
Record: 11-5
Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
The Jets' search for a 3-4 nose tackle could follow the same logic as Chicago's for a 3-technique. Taylor is thick and can anchor against the run and he moves well for a big guy, but he also comes with some character baggage and his motor runs hot and cold. He would end up with a very good defensive coaching staff in New York, though, and the Jets have a need to groom the next centerpiece for their front seven. It's either Taylor with this pick or taking a chance on someone like Hampton's Kenrick Ellis in the third round.
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31) Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 12-4
Danny Watkins, G, Baylor
What do you think the Las Vegas odds would have been at the start of the 2010 season that Baylor would have back-to-back picks in the first round? In all seriousness, Watkins is solid in pass protection and as a run blocker and brings a nasty disposition to the table. He would be a nice fit next to 2010 first-rounder and Pro Bowler Maurkice Pouncey. The Steelers could also opt for a cornerback like Williams or Harris, but the interior offensive line is Pittsburgh's top need.
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32) Green Bay Packers
Record: 10-6
Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
The defending Super Bowl champions have a very good nose tackle in B.J. Raji but injuries, free agency and off-field issues have created all kinds of questions at defensive end. If Heyward checks out medically he would be a steal here with his strength, motor and versatility.
Round 2
33. New England (from Car.) - Clint Boling OG Georgia
34. Buffalo - Christian Ponder QB Florida State
35. Cincinnati - Andy Dalton QB TCU
36. Denver - Kyle Rudolph TE Notre Dame
37. Cleveland - Stephen Paea DT Oregon State
38. Arizona - Akeem Ayers OLB UCLA
39. Tennessee - Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas
40. Dallas - Aaron Williams DB Texas
41. Washington - Colin Kaepernick QB Nevada
42. Houston - Justin Houston OLB Georgia
43. Minnesota - Marcus Cannon OT TCU
44. Detroit - Bruce Carter LB North Carolina
45. San Francisco - Mikel Leshoure RB Illinois
46. Denver (from Miami) - Rahim Moore S UCLA
47. St. Louis - Randall Cobb WR Kentucky
48. Oakland - Jimmy Smith CB Colorado
49. Jacksonville - Mason Foster LB Washington
50. San Diego - Allen Bailey DE Miami (FL)
51. Tampa Bay - Ras-I Dowling CB Virginia
52. New York Giants - Ryan Williams RB Virginia Tech
53. Indianapolis - Christian Ballard DL Iowa
54. Philadelphia - Martez Wilson LB Illinois
55. Kansas City - Kelvin Sheppard ILB LSU
56. New Orleans - Jurrell Casey DT USC
57. Seattle - Orlando Franklin G Miami (FL)
58. Baltimore - Torrey Smith WR Maryland
59. Atlanta - Titus Young WR Boise State
60. New England - James Carpenter OT Alabama
61. San Diego (from NY Jets) - Jonathan Baldwin WR Pittsburgh
62. Chicago - Benjamin Ijalana OT Villanova
63. Pittsburgh - Johnny Patrick CB Louisville
64. Green Bay - William Rackley G Lehigh
Round 3
65. Carolina - Jarvis Jenkins DT Clemson
66. Cincinnati - Kendall Hunter RB Oklahoma State
67. Denver - Quan Sturdivant LB North Carolina
68. Buffalo - Lance Kendricks TE Wisconsin
69. Arizona - Marcus Gilbert OT Florida
70. Cleveland - Leonard Hankerson WR Miami (FL)
71. Dallas - Brandon Hogan CB West Virginia
72. New Orleans (from Wash) - Rodney Hudson G/C Florida State
73. Houston - Jaiquawn Jarrett S Temple
74. New England (from Minn.) - Jabaal Sheard DE Pittsburgh
75. Detroit - Daniel Thomas RB Kansas State
76. San Francisco - Kenrick Ellis NT Hampton
77. Tennessee - Curtis Brown CB Texas
78. St. Louis - Johnny White RB North Carolina
79. Miami - Dion Lewis RB Pittsburgh
80. Jacksonville - Greg Little WR North Carolina
81. Oakland - Virgil Green TE Nevada
82. San Diego - Lee Ziemba OT Auburn
83. New York Giants - Terrell McClain DT South Florida
84. Tampa Bay - Shane Vereen RB California
85. Philadelphia - Joshua Thomas CB Buffalo
86. Kansas City - Tandon Doss WR Indiana
87. Indianapolis - John Moffitt G Wisconsin
88. New Orleans - Joseph Lefeged S Rutgers
89. San Diego (from Seattle) - Colin McCarthy LB Miami (FL)
90. Baltimore - James Brewer OT Indiana
91. Atlanta - Kendric Burney CB North Carolina
92. New England - Marcus Gilchrist DB Clemson
93. Chicago - Gregory Salas Hawaii
94. New York Jets - Jerrel Jernigan WR Troy
95. Pittsburgh - Luke Stocker TE Tennessee
96. Green Bay - Christopher Carter OLB Fresno State
97. Carolina (compensatory) - Edmund Gates WR Abilene Christian
Todd McShay is the director of college scouting for Scouts Inc. and has been evaluating prospects for the NFL draft since 1998. Scouts Inc.'s Steve Muench and Kevin Weidl also contributed to this story.
But you are not one of those guys, so why you jocking them so hard?