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So your top option is gone. Mel looks at how each team could draft with needs in mind
By Mel Kiper
ESPN.com
The war room members must always be aware of plans B, C, D and so on.
Every Friday Mel Kiper writes about the NFL through the prism of the NFL draft. For this piece, we asked him to evaluate the draft backup plans for every NFL team.
Every year we hear general managers assess their draft by saying, "We took the best player available to us," or "He was No. 1 on our draft board." This is always a mix of reality and spin. Every team has its own board -- a ranking of the top players overall and also the top players available at their biggest positions of need. And while we seem to spend a lot of time focusing on the top need for each team, we often overlook that second- or third-biggest need and how it doesn't hurt to address that early, if you have a plan for addressing the top need later.
Let's take a look at the second- and third-biggest needs for each team, and how they could play into draft strategy based on where they are picking currently -- particularly if a team's top choice is off the board.
1. Carolina Panthers
Carolina's top need is along the defensive line, where I feel they really need to find an elite defensive tackle. The options there are obvious, with Nick Fairley and Marcell Dareus dominating the conversation. But I also have their second-biggest need at wideout. Is it too high to take a lock like A.J. Green? It's something they could consider. (But that also depends on what they're thinking given the quarterback options.)
2. Denver Broncos
I also have the defensive line as Denver's top area of need. But right behind that is the secondary, where they could use a young cornerback. If Patrick Peterson is available, it'd be hard to pass on him, even with the aforementioned guys available. (Denver could also target outside linebacker.)
3. Buffalo Bills I have Buffalo's top need as offensive tackle. The Bills can't get equal value there picking this high, so they should drop to their second need: outside linebacker. If Von Miller is available, that's a solid pick. If not, would they drop down to the third-highest need ... wide receiver?
4. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals need to add a little more pass-rush help this year, and the situation with Carson Palmer has created a potential vacuum at the quarterback position, but their second-biggest need is actually wide receiver. If Green is there, he makes a solid backup plan.
5. Arizona Cardinals
While the top target for the Cardinals is quarterback, there's no reason to believe they won't at least consider getting a deal done to bring in a veteran. After all, this is a team built to win now, not while it waits for a guy to develop. And if the Cardinals skip a quarterback with this pick, their second-biggest need is outside linebacker. If Miller is gone, don't bet against Clemson defensive end Da'Quan Bowers playing well without his hand on the ground. He'd be a good option.
6. Cleveland Browns
The Browns need a wideout, and Green is an ideal fit here. But a couple of teams ahead of them might like him. If he's gone, Cleveland could target its second-biggest need by getting defensive end Robert Quinn, who can help in Week 1. Bowers is also a potential option.
7. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners could draft a quarterback, but Jim Harbaugh has needs elsewhere. I have outside linebacker as the second-biggest need. This might be a reach situation if Miller and Bowers are both gone, so the Niners could also consider a wideout. Receiver Julio Jones is perhaps a slight reach, but not much of one.
8. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is also in need of a quarterback, but this is another team that wouldn't want to play a rookie at that position to start 2011 even if it drafted one. Like San Fran, I have outside linebacker as a big need. Akeem Ayers might be a reach here, so perhaps the Titans go with need No. 3 and target defensive tackle. Muhammad Wilkerson -- currently at No. 10 on the Big Board -- would fit.
9. Dallas Cowboys
I have corner as the top need for Dallas, and we've seen Prince Amukamara linked here. But if he's not available, or Jerry Jones wants to target his second-biggest need, Tyron Smith is a perfect fit at tackle, where we know this team needs help.
10. Washington Redskins
Washington obviously needs a quarterback, and Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton could somehow still be around (though I doubt it). Need No. 2, however, is wide receiver, and you can't do better than Jones at this spot.
11. Houston Texans
Houston's top need on my board is safety, but it's far too early to target the top one on the board, UCLA's Rahim Moore. After that, the Texans should land the best outside linebacker available. Aldon Smith or Ayers could come into the picture.
12. Minnesota Vikings
I have the quarterback position as the top need, and like Arizona, I expect the Vikings to take a hard look at the trade market (or free agency, if and when it happens) as they evaluate what to do. While this is one of the first teams many think could go after a guy like Jake Locker, it wouldn't represent great value. Of course, neither would need No. 2 -- safety. The Vikes also need O-line help, meaning there may not be a team better suited to trade down if Smith is gone to Dallas.
13. Detroit Lions
Detroit really needs to get secondary help, but if Amukamara is gone, it may feel like Colorado's Jimmy Smith is a slight reach. But they need linebacking help too, and Ayers would fit. They could also consider a trade down to get better value with an offensive line pick.
14. St. Louis Rams
It's hard to imagine the Rams not biting if Jones is still available, given how desperate they are for a wideout with elite size. But they could land one in Round 2 and instead target either outside linebacker or defensive tackle here. They could draft Ryan Kerrigan, or perhaps Corey Liuget, for one of those.
15. Miami Dolphins
No team seems more likely to take a running back in Round 1, but surely the Dolphins have noticed the same trends as everybody else -- you can get a lot of value late at that position. If the Dolphins decide to pass on a guy like Mark Ingram, a secondary need like guard could emerge. Florida's Mike Pouncey isn't much of a reach here.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags need young talent at defensive end, and they could have a few options. But if a guy like Justin Houston or Aldon Smith isn't a fit in their eyes, maybe they're the team that takes the third quarterback of the draft. They could also reach a little on a wideout. If the Jags like a player, they may just take him.
17. New England Patriots
It's hard to say where the Patriots could go. Because they have so many picks, and many of them relatively early, they can mix and match needs and value all over the place. I have outside linebacker as their top need, and they could have options here, such as Ayers, Smith or Kerrigan, but they also need a wideout and defensive end help. Cameron Jordan would be great, and if J.J. Watt somehow fell this far, they might be thrilled.
18. San Diego Chargers
I have wide receiver as a top need for the Chargers, which may sound crazy given what Phillip Rivers was able to do last year, but I think the position could use a talent upgrade. However, the backup plan should be to land a defensive end to help that front. Jordan is a good option, and you wonder if a team would fall in love with Cameron Heyward's potential this high on the board.
19. New York Giants
The Giants could use an outside linebacker, and many have been mentioned. If there's a run at that position, they may be better off targeting their second-biggest need and landing Pouncey here. They could also seek out value at defensive tackle.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I've been pretty insistent that Tampa should add a defensive end, but in a deep draft on the defensive line, the Bucs could opt to target their second-biggest need by going after a cornerback. Jimmy Smith is a good fit here if he's available.
21. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs really need to land a wide receiver this offseason, and they could be the team that is willing to reach a little and get Leonard Hankerson or Torrey Smith at this spot. But they also need outside linebacker help, and that's a safe backup plan here. This team also needs a center, and Pouncey is the only guy who might fit the bill this high.
22. Indianapolis Colts
I have the Colts in need of an offensive tackle with this pick, and I could see them target Gabe Carimi, Nate Solder or another option they have rated this high. But they also need to consider the interior of that line, and then defensive tackle. Perhaps Stephen Paea of Oregon State or Jurrell Casey of USC slips into the discussion here.
23. Philadelphia Eagles
Like the Colts, I see the Eagles looking for an offensive tackle as the top priority. But they could also use help at corner, and could get Smith or a guy such as Aaron Williams from Texas. If they think they are getting a steal with a defensive tackle they love still on the board, it wouldn't be a surprise pick.
24. New Orleans Saints
The Saints need a defensive end, and they should have a few options as the second tier of talent at that position resides here. Houston has been mentioned here. But they could also use talent on the offensive line, and could target what the Eagles and Colts leave behind, or reach a little on a guy like Derek Sherrod.
25. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks need to figure out a long-range plan at quarterback, and Jake Locker could be available here. But if they are more worried about immediate improvement in the wins column, offensive line is the second-biggest need. If they go with a vet at quarterback and get a good lineman here, this could be a better offense.
26. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have cornerback as the top need, but if Williams and Smith are gone, they should go with a backup plan and target the best wideout available, or a third option and develop a linebacker. I could also see them picking Moore here, and getting that free safety position settled for another decade.
27. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta doesn't have many needs, but a second option after Roddy White has to be a big one. However, if the Falcons don't like the value, going with the best defensive end on the board here would be a good idea. Be it Houston, Kerrigan, Jordan or perhaps a guy like Brooks Reed if they feel he can handle the 4-3, that might be a suitable plan.
28. New England Patriots
The Pats could consider going down to a third or fourth need here, such as taking the top running back available, like a Mikel Leshoure or Jordan Todman, or getting the defensive end they need if they didn't see the value earlier.
29. Chicago Bears
The Bears need to get some help on the offensive line, and I'd almost expect them to take the best available tackle, period. But they do need to add talent on the defensive interior as well, and a guy like Casey or even Drake Nevis shouldn't be out of the picture here.
30. New York Jets
I think Rex Ryan has to add some depth and talent along the defensive line, and he'll start by targeting 3-4 defensive ends. But given how creatively he can utilize what he has, if the Jets love a safety like Moore, or an outside linebacker, they could go that direction as a safe backup option.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers
I have offensive tackle as the top need for Pittsburgh, but the Steelers could get really good value here at cornerback if Williams or Smith were still around. As a third option, the best available defensive lineman would fit.
32. Green Bay Packers
I have the Packers going for either the best offensive tackle or outside linebacker available here, but I'm not certain they wouldn't go after a guy they think can be converted to 3-4 defensive end, such as Christian Ballard of Iowa.
By Mel Kiper
ESPN.com
The war room members must always be aware of plans B, C, D and so on.
Every Friday Mel Kiper writes about the NFL through the prism of the NFL draft. For this piece, we asked him to evaluate the draft backup plans for every NFL team.
Every year we hear general managers assess their draft by saying, "We took the best player available to us," or "He was No. 1 on our draft board." This is always a mix of reality and spin. Every team has its own board -- a ranking of the top players overall and also the top players available at their biggest positions of need. And while we seem to spend a lot of time focusing on the top need for each team, we often overlook that second- or third-biggest need and how it doesn't hurt to address that early, if you have a plan for addressing the top need later.
Let's take a look at the second- and third-biggest needs for each team, and how they could play into draft strategy based on where they are picking currently -- particularly if a team's top choice is off the board.
1. Carolina Panthers
Carolina's top need is along the defensive line, where I feel they really need to find an elite defensive tackle. The options there are obvious, with Nick Fairley and Marcell Dareus dominating the conversation. But I also have their second-biggest need at wideout. Is it too high to take a lock like A.J. Green? It's something they could consider. (But that also depends on what they're thinking given the quarterback options.)
2. Denver Broncos
I also have the defensive line as Denver's top area of need. But right behind that is the secondary, where they could use a young cornerback. If Patrick Peterson is available, it'd be hard to pass on him, even with the aforementioned guys available. (Denver could also target outside linebacker.)
3. Buffalo Bills I have Buffalo's top need as offensive tackle. The Bills can't get equal value there picking this high, so they should drop to their second need: outside linebacker. If Von Miller is available, that's a solid pick. If not, would they drop down to the third-highest need ... wide receiver?
4. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals need to add a little more pass-rush help this year, and the situation with Carson Palmer has created a potential vacuum at the quarterback position, but their second-biggest need is actually wide receiver. If Green is there, he makes a solid backup plan.
5. Arizona Cardinals
While the top target for the Cardinals is quarterback, there's no reason to believe they won't at least consider getting a deal done to bring in a veteran. After all, this is a team built to win now, not while it waits for a guy to develop. And if the Cardinals skip a quarterback with this pick, their second-biggest need is outside linebacker. If Miller is gone, don't bet against Clemson defensive end Da'Quan Bowers playing well without his hand on the ground. He'd be a good option.
6. Cleveland Browns
The Browns need a wideout, and Green is an ideal fit here. But a couple of teams ahead of them might like him. If he's gone, Cleveland could target its second-biggest need by getting defensive end Robert Quinn, who can help in Week 1. Bowers is also a potential option.
7. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners could draft a quarterback, but Jim Harbaugh has needs elsewhere. I have outside linebacker as the second-biggest need. This might be a reach situation if Miller and Bowers are both gone, so the Niners could also consider a wideout. Receiver Julio Jones is perhaps a slight reach, but not much of one.
8. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is also in need of a quarterback, but this is another team that wouldn't want to play a rookie at that position to start 2011 even if it drafted one. Like San Fran, I have outside linebacker as a big need. Akeem Ayers might be a reach here, so perhaps the Titans go with need No. 3 and target defensive tackle. Muhammad Wilkerson -- currently at No. 10 on the Big Board -- would fit.
9. Dallas Cowboys
I have corner as the top need for Dallas, and we've seen Prince Amukamara linked here. But if he's not available, or Jerry Jones wants to target his second-biggest need, Tyron Smith is a perfect fit at tackle, where we know this team needs help.
10. Washington Redskins
Washington obviously needs a quarterback, and Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton could somehow still be around (though I doubt it). Need No. 2, however, is wide receiver, and you can't do better than Jones at this spot.
11. Houston Texans
Houston's top need on my board is safety, but it's far too early to target the top one on the board, UCLA's Rahim Moore. After that, the Texans should land the best outside linebacker available. Aldon Smith or Ayers could come into the picture.
12. Minnesota Vikings
I have the quarterback position as the top need, and like Arizona, I expect the Vikings to take a hard look at the trade market (or free agency, if and when it happens) as they evaluate what to do. While this is one of the first teams many think could go after a guy like Jake Locker, it wouldn't represent great value. Of course, neither would need No. 2 -- safety. The Vikes also need O-line help, meaning there may not be a team better suited to trade down if Smith is gone to Dallas.
13. Detroit Lions
Detroit really needs to get secondary help, but if Amukamara is gone, it may feel like Colorado's Jimmy Smith is a slight reach. But they need linebacking help too, and Ayers would fit. They could also consider a trade down to get better value with an offensive line pick.
14. St. Louis Rams
It's hard to imagine the Rams not biting if Jones is still available, given how desperate they are for a wideout with elite size. But they could land one in Round 2 and instead target either outside linebacker or defensive tackle here. They could draft Ryan Kerrigan, or perhaps Corey Liuget, for one of those.
15. Miami Dolphins
No team seems more likely to take a running back in Round 1, but surely the Dolphins have noticed the same trends as everybody else -- you can get a lot of value late at that position. If the Dolphins decide to pass on a guy like Mark Ingram, a secondary need like guard could emerge. Florida's Mike Pouncey isn't much of a reach here.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags need young talent at defensive end, and they could have a few options. But if a guy like Justin Houston or Aldon Smith isn't a fit in their eyes, maybe they're the team that takes the third quarterback of the draft. They could also reach a little on a wideout. If the Jags like a player, they may just take him.
17. New England Patriots
It's hard to say where the Patriots could go. Because they have so many picks, and many of them relatively early, they can mix and match needs and value all over the place. I have outside linebacker as their top need, and they could have options here, such as Ayers, Smith or Kerrigan, but they also need a wideout and defensive end help. Cameron Jordan would be great, and if J.J. Watt somehow fell this far, they might be thrilled.
18. San Diego Chargers
I have wide receiver as a top need for the Chargers, which may sound crazy given what Phillip Rivers was able to do last year, but I think the position could use a talent upgrade. However, the backup plan should be to land a defensive end to help that front. Jordan is a good option, and you wonder if a team would fall in love with Cameron Heyward's potential this high on the board.
19. New York Giants
The Giants could use an outside linebacker, and many have been mentioned. If there's a run at that position, they may be better off targeting their second-biggest need and landing Pouncey here. They could also seek out value at defensive tackle.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I've been pretty insistent that Tampa should add a defensive end, but in a deep draft on the defensive line, the Bucs could opt to target their second-biggest need by going after a cornerback. Jimmy Smith is a good fit here if he's available.
21. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs really need to land a wide receiver this offseason, and they could be the team that is willing to reach a little and get Leonard Hankerson or Torrey Smith at this spot. But they also need outside linebacker help, and that's a safe backup plan here. This team also needs a center, and Pouncey is the only guy who might fit the bill this high.
22. Indianapolis Colts
I have the Colts in need of an offensive tackle with this pick, and I could see them target Gabe Carimi, Nate Solder or another option they have rated this high. But they also need to consider the interior of that line, and then defensive tackle. Perhaps Stephen Paea of Oregon State or Jurrell Casey of USC slips into the discussion here.
23. Philadelphia Eagles
Like the Colts, I see the Eagles looking for an offensive tackle as the top priority. But they could also use help at corner, and could get Smith or a guy such as Aaron Williams from Texas. If they think they are getting a steal with a defensive tackle they love still on the board, it wouldn't be a surprise pick.
24. New Orleans Saints
The Saints need a defensive end, and they should have a few options as the second tier of talent at that position resides here. Houston has been mentioned here. But they could also use talent on the offensive line, and could target what the Eagles and Colts leave behind, or reach a little on a guy like Derek Sherrod.
25. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks need to figure out a long-range plan at quarterback, and Jake Locker could be available here. But if they are more worried about immediate improvement in the wins column, offensive line is the second-biggest need. If they go with a vet at quarterback and get a good lineman here, this could be a better offense.
26. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have cornerback as the top need, but if Williams and Smith are gone, they should go with a backup plan and target the best wideout available, or a third option and develop a linebacker. I could also see them picking Moore here, and getting that free safety position settled for another decade.
27. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta doesn't have many needs, but a second option after Roddy White has to be a big one. However, if the Falcons don't like the value, going with the best defensive end on the board here would be a good idea. Be it Houston, Kerrigan, Jordan or perhaps a guy like Brooks Reed if they feel he can handle the 4-3, that might be a suitable plan.
28. New England Patriots
The Pats could consider going down to a third or fourth need here, such as taking the top running back available, like a Mikel Leshoure or Jordan Todman, or getting the defensive end they need if they didn't see the value earlier.
29. Chicago Bears
The Bears need to get some help on the offensive line, and I'd almost expect them to take the best available tackle, period. But they do need to add talent on the defensive interior as well, and a guy like Casey or even Drake Nevis shouldn't be out of the picture here.
30. New York Jets
I think Rex Ryan has to add some depth and talent along the defensive line, and he'll start by targeting 3-4 defensive ends. But given how creatively he can utilize what he has, if the Jets love a safety like Moore, or an outside linebacker, they could go that direction as a safe backup option.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers
I have offensive tackle as the top need for Pittsburgh, but the Steelers could get really good value here at cornerback if Williams or Smith were still around. As a third option, the best available defensive lineman would fit.
32. Green Bay Packers
I have the Packers going for either the best offensive tackle or outside linebacker available here, but I'm not certain they wouldn't go after a guy they think can be converted to 3-4 defensive end, such as Christian Ballard of Iowa.
