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Players bound for a leap year
Sam Bradford was great, but a Pro Bowl could be next. Who else could leap?
By Mel Kiper
ESPN Insider
No matter what they say, any coach or general manager drafting a player in the first round believes they are getting a guy capable of helping the team early. I'm not saying they expect it -- consider this year's draft, in which every quarterback taken should be given time on the bench -- but these are the most talented players in the draft, and in most cases, they target a roster void.
With that in mind, as I look back at picks I liked in the 2010 draft, as usual, there are some cases where a player taken in Round 1 didn't quite live up to all the hype. Either that, or the hype was so great that he became unfairly criticized. I'm not saying these guys disappointed, but whether it was perception or reality, they all had moments or profiles that had the critics out. Let's look at some first-round picks from 2010 who I think could be in line for a big jump in 2011.
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Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams (No. 1 pick)
The results: Let's be clear: In no way was Bradford a disappointment as a rookie. Given what he was handed in terms of personnel in the Rams' passing game, Bradford was brilliant. The Rams put him in the shotgun a lot to ease the transition (in a league in which the shotgun is as prevalent as ever) and Bradford was outstanding. This is a league that saw Peyton Manning throw 28 INTs as a rookie. Young guys will struggle -- period. Bradford came out gunning, throwing 55 times in Week 1, and was trusted to deliver from the get-go. What I like most is the 60 percent completion percentage. While he didn't push the ball down the field a lot, Bradford's trademark accuracy didn't desert him.
Why the leap: The Rams didn't get a home run wideout in the draft, but they did get some value, with tight end Lance Kendricks, then wideouts Austin Pettis and Gregory Salas. I'd expect them to be actively looking for a pass-catching target or two in free agency, and between growth and added personnel, I don't think it'd surprise anyone to see Bradford already at a Pro Bowl level in 2011. He's that talented.
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Gerald McCoy, DT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 3 pick)
The results: McCoy didn't have a great year, but he really would only be considered a disappointment next to Ndamukong Suh. What Suh did in Detroit, however, wasn't just good for a rookie -- it would have been great for a veteran looking for a free-agent deal. What we didn't see enough of from McCoy was the arsenal of pass-rush moves that had him higher on some boards than Suh. McCoy hurt his biceps late in the year, and ended the season with three sacks.
Why the leap: McCoy is young -- he won't be 24 until February -- and I saw him as a guy who would continue to mature both physically and on the field. But I mostly think he can jump because Tampa has added some pass-rushing help on the edges, which should force teams to make some tougher decisions in terms of blocking assignments. McCoy has all the talent, and should produce more as his fellow defensive linemen mature around him.
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C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills (No. 9 pick)
The results: This was a really tough situation to land in. Buffalo needed blocking help and was unsure about what they'd do at quarterback, and they shocked a lot of people by taking Spiller. The bigger surprise is they didn't appear to have much of a plan to utilize him. That's a head-scratcher given where he was taken. Spiller isn't an every-down back, but he never had more than nine carries in a game in 2010, and definitely could have caught more than 24 passes. He finished the year with just 283 yards rushing. You can't draft a running back this high and get so little.
Why the leap: Spiller is more of a Reggie Bush-type than a back that should pile up carries, but you can't hit home runs unless you let the guy swing the bat. He has sprinter's speed, and if the Bills can trust him, they should use him. He should double his carry totals, and perhaps even more, double his targets in the passing game, where he can create big plays if you get him in the open field.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers (No. 12 pick)
The results: Mathews didn't get off to a good start, hurting an ankle early. San Diego's passing game also became so effective, they seemed to go away from the run more than expected. Mathews had 675 yards rushing, but I thought he could have been a runaway for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and I think the Chargers believed he would be when they traded up for him.
Why the leap: If he's healthy, they'd like him to pile up carries. Mathews has the size and downhill running style to be a workhorse, and his average of 4.3 yards per pop wasn't bad. He just needs the carries. He got more than 20 in a game just twice in 2010 -- he could double the workload in 2011.
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Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, New York Giants (No. 15 pick)
The results: Nobody expected Pierre-Paul to burst out of the gates. He was still a project in terms of adding pass-rushing skills, and wasn't going to start. He came on as the season wore on, finishing the year with 4.5 sacks, and flashed some of that trademark athleticism as he got more rotation time later in the season.
Why the leap: I saw 2010 as a redshirt year for Pierre-Paul, who was still a baby at 22, and he still showed flashes. If he gains consistency and the trust of the coaches, it'll be hard to keep him off the field even with some other very good pass-rushers on the roster.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cincinnati Bengals (No. 21 pick)
The results: It wouldn't have been fair to expect a ton from Gresham. He sat out the entire previous season with a broken leg, so rust was inevitable. He finished the year with 471 receiving yards and caught four touchdown passes.
Why the leap: Gresham is about as talented as they come at this position. With a year of experience under his belt, he's the sort of talent who can be an offensive centerpiece, not just a mere check-down and red-zone threat. Obviously, what the Bengals have at quarterback will shift his numbers, but he should be ready to take off.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bryan Bulaga, OT, Green Bay Packers (No. 23 pick)
The results: Bulaga was very good in 2010, an All-Rookie offensive tackle who helped out well on the right side for a Super Bowl team. Hard to ask for much more.
Why the leap: Well, there's a good chance the Packers do ask for more. If Bulaga moves to the left, he suddenly becomes one of the more scrutinized tackles in the league, the blindside protection for Aaron Rodgers. The Packers went with a tackle in Round 1 this year, but they may simply look to do what they did with Bulaga, and send Bulaga to the role that gets more of a spotlight.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notables: Seattle is serious about getting better on the offensive line, and they will be if Russell Okung can stay healthy. He's very talented, but you never saw him at 100 percent in 2010. Anthony Davis also has a lot of talent, and if he can improve his footwork as a pass-blocker, he has a bright future. He can maul in the run game, but he was a screen door on occasions. Hopefully Brandon Graham is fully healthy after an ACL tear. He'll flat-out get to the quarterback if he is. Sean Weatherspoon looked good when he was healthy. If Dez Bryant has his head on, the talent is off the charts. But his head has become a big question. Jared Odrick was perfect for Miami's scheme, but a broken leg never let him get started. I was shocked at how little Jerry Hughes saw the field. Will he rise to the challenge? The innate pass-rushing skills are there if he responds to the coaching.
Sam Bradford was great, but a Pro Bowl could be next. Who else could leap?
By Mel Kiper
ESPN Insider
No matter what they say, any coach or general manager drafting a player in the first round believes they are getting a guy capable of helping the team early. I'm not saying they expect it -- consider this year's draft, in which every quarterback taken should be given time on the bench -- but these are the most talented players in the draft, and in most cases, they target a roster void.
With that in mind, as I look back at picks I liked in the 2010 draft, as usual, there are some cases where a player taken in Round 1 didn't quite live up to all the hype. Either that, or the hype was so great that he became unfairly criticized. I'm not saying these guys disappointed, but whether it was perception or reality, they all had moments or profiles that had the critics out. Let's look at some first-round picks from 2010 who I think could be in line for a big jump in 2011.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams (No. 1 pick)
The results: Let's be clear: In no way was Bradford a disappointment as a rookie. Given what he was handed in terms of personnel in the Rams' passing game, Bradford was brilliant. The Rams put him in the shotgun a lot to ease the transition (in a league in which the shotgun is as prevalent as ever) and Bradford was outstanding. This is a league that saw Peyton Manning throw 28 INTs as a rookie. Young guys will struggle -- period. Bradford came out gunning, throwing 55 times in Week 1, and was trusted to deliver from the get-go. What I like most is the 60 percent completion percentage. While he didn't push the ball down the field a lot, Bradford's trademark accuracy didn't desert him.
Why the leap: The Rams didn't get a home run wideout in the draft, but they did get some value, with tight end Lance Kendricks, then wideouts Austin Pettis and Gregory Salas. I'd expect them to be actively looking for a pass-catching target or two in free agency, and between growth and added personnel, I don't think it'd surprise anyone to see Bradford already at a Pro Bowl level in 2011. He's that talented.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gerald McCoy, DT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 3 pick)
The results: McCoy didn't have a great year, but he really would only be considered a disappointment next to Ndamukong Suh. What Suh did in Detroit, however, wasn't just good for a rookie -- it would have been great for a veteran looking for a free-agent deal. What we didn't see enough of from McCoy was the arsenal of pass-rush moves that had him higher on some boards than Suh. McCoy hurt his biceps late in the year, and ended the season with three sacks.
Why the leap: McCoy is young -- he won't be 24 until February -- and I saw him as a guy who would continue to mature both physically and on the field. But I mostly think he can jump because Tampa has added some pass-rushing help on the edges, which should force teams to make some tougher decisions in terms of blocking assignments. McCoy has all the talent, and should produce more as his fellow defensive linemen mature around him.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills (No. 9 pick)
The results: This was a really tough situation to land in. Buffalo needed blocking help and was unsure about what they'd do at quarterback, and they shocked a lot of people by taking Spiller. The bigger surprise is they didn't appear to have much of a plan to utilize him. That's a head-scratcher given where he was taken. Spiller isn't an every-down back, but he never had more than nine carries in a game in 2010, and definitely could have caught more than 24 passes. He finished the year with just 283 yards rushing. You can't draft a running back this high and get so little.
Why the leap: Spiller is more of a Reggie Bush-type than a back that should pile up carries, but you can't hit home runs unless you let the guy swing the bat. He has sprinter's speed, and if the Bills can trust him, they should use him. He should double his carry totals, and perhaps even more, double his targets in the passing game, where he can create big plays if you get him in the open field.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers (No. 12 pick)
The results: Mathews didn't get off to a good start, hurting an ankle early. San Diego's passing game also became so effective, they seemed to go away from the run more than expected. Mathews had 675 yards rushing, but I thought he could have been a runaway for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and I think the Chargers believed he would be when they traded up for him.
Why the leap: If he's healthy, they'd like him to pile up carries. Mathews has the size and downhill running style to be a workhorse, and his average of 4.3 yards per pop wasn't bad. He just needs the carries. He got more than 20 in a game just twice in 2010 -- he could double the workload in 2011.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, New York Giants (No. 15 pick)
The results: Nobody expected Pierre-Paul to burst out of the gates. He was still a project in terms of adding pass-rushing skills, and wasn't going to start. He came on as the season wore on, finishing the year with 4.5 sacks, and flashed some of that trademark athleticism as he got more rotation time later in the season.
Why the leap: I saw 2010 as a redshirt year for Pierre-Paul, who was still a baby at 22, and he still showed flashes. If he gains consistency and the trust of the coaches, it'll be hard to keep him off the field even with some other very good pass-rushers on the roster.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cincinnati Bengals (No. 21 pick)
The results: It wouldn't have been fair to expect a ton from Gresham. He sat out the entire previous season with a broken leg, so rust was inevitable. He finished the year with 471 receiving yards and caught four touchdown passes.
Why the leap: Gresham is about as talented as they come at this position. With a year of experience under his belt, he's the sort of talent who can be an offensive centerpiece, not just a mere check-down and red-zone threat. Obviously, what the Bengals have at quarterback will shift his numbers, but he should be ready to take off.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bryan Bulaga, OT, Green Bay Packers (No. 23 pick)
The results: Bulaga was very good in 2010, an All-Rookie offensive tackle who helped out well on the right side for a Super Bowl team. Hard to ask for much more.
Why the leap: Well, there's a good chance the Packers do ask for more. If Bulaga moves to the left, he suddenly becomes one of the more scrutinized tackles in the league, the blindside protection for Aaron Rodgers. The Packers went with a tackle in Round 1 this year, but they may simply look to do what they did with Bulaga, and send Bulaga to the role that gets more of a spotlight.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notables: Seattle is serious about getting better on the offensive line, and they will be if Russell Okung can stay healthy. He's very talented, but you never saw him at 100 percent in 2010. Anthony Davis also has a lot of talent, and if he can improve his footwork as a pass-blocker, he has a bright future. He can maul in the run game, but he was a screen door on occasions. Hopefully Brandon Graham is fully healthy after an ACL tear. He'll flat-out get to the quarterback if he is. Sean Weatherspoon looked good when he was healthy. If Dez Bryant has his head on, the talent is off the charts. But his head has become a big question. Jared Odrick was perfect for Miami's scheme, but a broken leg never let him get started. I was shocked at how little Jerry Hughes saw the field. Will he rise to the challenge? The innate pass-rushing skills are there if he responds to the coaching.
