C
Cr122
Guest
Jets Week, Part Three: Keep It Simple?
Posted by Rafael at Wednesday, September 07, 2011
Rob Ryan told the press last week that he has no idea how he'll game plan against the New York Jets this week.
Raise your hand if you believe him?
Ryan's Cleveland Browns faced the Jets mid-season 2010 and played them into overtime, where Santonio Holmes caught a winning touchdown in the last minute of the 5th quarter. Ryan ran a fairly simple game plan, and I see a strong chance that he'll run another one Sunday night. This is because the Jets are not a complicated offense. They rely on power and execution, and that dictates that Ryan challenge it with more fortified sets. The crazy one and two lineman packages will only take the field, if Rob's more basic personnel sets win first and second down.
Look at the Jets offense and you see a running game almost identical in scheme to Dallas'. A lot of zone blocking. A lot of off-set I sets, both weak and strong, thought mostly to the strong side. (See here for a quick run down on formations. And here.) Two tight end sets, with runs to an overloaded side.
The Jets like to run and they do it well. They have two perennial Pro Bowlers in left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson and center Nick Mangold. Right guard Brandon Moore is a power guard. Jets OC Brian Schottenheimer tries to establish the rush and work deep and intermediate passes off play action. You won't see a lot of flim-flammery, and three and four wideouts on first down from this team.
Or will you? New York's conservatism stems in part from quarterback Mark Sanchez' inexperience. He walked straight from USC's huddle into the Jets starting lineup in 2009 and the team has wisely built game plans which limit his responsibilities. Schottenheimer gave Sanchez more leeway last season and we should expect an expanded playbook this year, as Sanchez starts year three.
That said, I don't expect the Jets to come out in spread packages and for Sanchez to sling the ball on several consecutive downs. They run well. The Cowboys have had trouble stopping first team running attacks this summer. I look for the Jets to test the Dallas front, and run as much as they are able.
This means that on first and second downs, we're likely to see Dallas in base 3-4 variants. Either in a stock 3-4, with Anthony Spencer lining up as a three-point end, giving the Cowboys a 4-3 look. Or, they may pinch the ends into eagle fronts, to stack the inside linebackers behind end, and give them more freedom to flow to the football.
This was Ryan's approach last season. His Browns were undermanned on their line, and they surrendered lots of yards in the middle of the field. They were tougher to beat in the red zones, so the Jets scored only 20 in regulation, despite ripping off 172 yards on the ground.
Ryan's exotic fronts came out on 3rd and long, and they were somewhat effective at making Sanchez leave the pocket and throw incompletions. We all want to see the motion, and sizzle from the Cowboys front, but that will be in direct proportion to Dallas ability to stop Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson.
And what the Jets have done and are likely to do isn't hard to track. They work from 21 or 12 sets. In their base, look for fullback John Conner in an off-set I. They'll run behind edge runs to the weak-side behind Conner, but they prefer to flex him to the tight ends side and run the tailback to the overload. Some times, Conner is pulled for the second tight end. Here, the Jets liked to run strong side behind Ben Hartsock from this package in '10, as was a better blocker than starter Dustin Keller, a fortified Jay Novacek type, who is very effective at running routes and torturing linebackers. Matt Mulligan replaces Hartsock in these sets, but I expect New York to continue with the powerball tactics.
The Jets preferred to run to their right last year, behind RG Moore and RT Damien Woody. Woody has retired and has been replaced by 8-year vet Wayne Hunter, who has just five starts in those eight years. Whether he can duplicate Woody's run blocking is unknown.
Dallas has the personnel to seal the edges. Both Demarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are solid against tight ends and are rarely beaten by bootleg fakes. The bigger question comes inside: how can the nose tackles the two inside linebackers and the strong safety do against Mangold, the Jets guards and Conner?
Mangold will get a rotation of Jay Ratliff and 2nd year nose Josh Brent, who has been effective against double teams in the preseason. The guys behind him make you wonder. Bradie James is starting to show his age and second year man Sean Lee continues flash in practice but fail to transport his game into real games. The injuries at the DE spots have not helped. Marcus Spears was active for a game, then went on the injured list with a groin strain. The other DEs have looked pedestrian against running plays.
Ryan does have a lot more personnel options at his disposal this year, but will they offer more push back than his Browns? Ryan's guys need to win first down and win it consistently to make a game of it.
If he's true to his word, and has something odd cooked up, the surprises are likely to come on first and second down, not on third. Will he go with four or five linemen? Will Ryan start Brent and Ratliff as DTs, with one of them slanting on Mangold, a look practiced in San Antonio? Will he nod to daddy Buddy and use a lot of Bear fronts?
He may take a simple route to challenging New York's rush, or he may get crazy. If he's ineffective, his defense will be rolled in a brutally simple fashion.
Posted by Rafael at Wednesday, September 07, 2011
Rob Ryan told the press last week that he has no idea how he'll game plan against the New York Jets this week.
Raise your hand if you believe him?
Ryan's Cleveland Browns faced the Jets mid-season 2010 and played them into overtime, where Santonio Holmes caught a winning touchdown in the last minute of the 5th quarter. Ryan ran a fairly simple game plan, and I see a strong chance that he'll run another one Sunday night. This is because the Jets are not a complicated offense. They rely on power and execution, and that dictates that Ryan challenge it with more fortified sets. The crazy one and two lineman packages will only take the field, if Rob's more basic personnel sets win first and second down.
Look at the Jets offense and you see a running game almost identical in scheme to Dallas'. A lot of zone blocking. A lot of off-set I sets, both weak and strong, thought mostly to the strong side. (See here for a quick run down on formations. And here.) Two tight end sets, with runs to an overloaded side.
The Jets like to run and they do it well. They have two perennial Pro Bowlers in left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson and center Nick Mangold. Right guard Brandon Moore is a power guard. Jets OC Brian Schottenheimer tries to establish the rush and work deep and intermediate passes off play action. You won't see a lot of flim-flammery, and three and four wideouts on first down from this team.
Or will you? New York's conservatism stems in part from quarterback Mark Sanchez' inexperience. He walked straight from USC's huddle into the Jets starting lineup in 2009 and the team has wisely built game plans which limit his responsibilities. Schottenheimer gave Sanchez more leeway last season and we should expect an expanded playbook this year, as Sanchez starts year three.
That said, I don't expect the Jets to come out in spread packages and for Sanchez to sling the ball on several consecutive downs. They run well. The Cowboys have had trouble stopping first team running attacks this summer. I look for the Jets to test the Dallas front, and run as much as they are able.
This means that on first and second downs, we're likely to see Dallas in base 3-4 variants. Either in a stock 3-4, with Anthony Spencer lining up as a three-point end, giving the Cowboys a 4-3 look. Or, they may pinch the ends into eagle fronts, to stack the inside linebackers behind end, and give them more freedom to flow to the football.
This was Ryan's approach last season. His Browns were undermanned on their line, and they surrendered lots of yards in the middle of the field. They were tougher to beat in the red zones, so the Jets scored only 20 in regulation, despite ripping off 172 yards on the ground.
Ryan's exotic fronts came out on 3rd and long, and they were somewhat effective at making Sanchez leave the pocket and throw incompletions. We all want to see the motion, and sizzle from the Cowboys front, but that will be in direct proportion to Dallas ability to stop Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson.
And what the Jets have done and are likely to do isn't hard to track. They work from 21 or 12 sets. In their base, look for fullback John Conner in an off-set I. They'll run behind edge runs to the weak-side behind Conner, but they prefer to flex him to the tight ends side and run the tailback to the overload. Some times, Conner is pulled for the second tight end. Here, the Jets liked to run strong side behind Ben Hartsock from this package in '10, as was a better blocker than starter Dustin Keller, a fortified Jay Novacek type, who is very effective at running routes and torturing linebackers. Matt Mulligan replaces Hartsock in these sets, but I expect New York to continue with the powerball tactics.
The Jets preferred to run to their right last year, behind RG Moore and RT Damien Woody. Woody has retired and has been replaced by 8-year vet Wayne Hunter, who has just five starts in those eight years. Whether he can duplicate Woody's run blocking is unknown.
Dallas has the personnel to seal the edges. Both Demarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are solid against tight ends and are rarely beaten by bootleg fakes. The bigger question comes inside: how can the nose tackles the two inside linebackers and the strong safety do against Mangold, the Jets guards and Conner?
Mangold will get a rotation of Jay Ratliff and 2nd year nose Josh Brent, who has been effective against double teams in the preseason. The guys behind him make you wonder. Bradie James is starting to show his age and second year man Sean Lee continues flash in practice but fail to transport his game into real games. The injuries at the DE spots have not helped. Marcus Spears was active for a game, then went on the injured list with a groin strain. The other DEs have looked pedestrian against running plays.
Ryan does have a lot more personnel options at his disposal this year, but will they offer more push back than his Browns? Ryan's guys need to win first down and win it consistently to make a game of it.
If he's true to his word, and has something odd cooked up, the surprises are likely to come on first and second down, not on third. Will he go with four or five linemen? Will Ryan start Brent and Ratliff as DTs, with one of them slanting on Mangold, a look practiced in San Antonio? Will he nod to daddy Buddy and use a lot of Bear fronts?
He may take a simple route to challenging New York's rush, or he may get crazy. If he's ineffective, his defense will be rolled in a brutally simple fashion.