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Is Dallas Working a Six-Player Card?
Posted by Rafael at Tuesday, April 19, 2011
http://www.cowboysnation.com/2011/04/is-dallas-playing-six-player-card.html
It takes two to tango. We've played the trade-down drill for weeks. The Rams at 14, the Pats and Chargers at 17 and 18 have been the most likely prospects on Dallas' draft dance card. But might other teams be in the mix? Might other teams closer be in the Cowboys' plans?
Let's take Matt Mosley at his word. He cited Valley Ranch sources in an ESPN Radio chat yesterday that Dallas was hoping to trade and would consider moving down to 17 or 18. No surprises there. How many mocks have used 18 as the destination? We've got a short list of players we would all love to plug into the 50th slot if that deal were made.
Let's see how short or how long a trip the Cowboys could take.
11. Houston? A lot of mocks have them taking Nebraska's CB Prince Amukamara in this slot. A corner would certainly help that secondary. But so would a pass rusher. Wade Phillips is moving the Texans to his pressure 3-4. Wade coached Bruce Smith when he was at Buffalo and must feel he has a Baby Bruce in Mario Williams, a do-it-all DL who can rush as a 5-technique. What Phillips lacks is a Demarcus Ware, an outside backer who can rush wide of Williams and bend an offensive line's left side to the breaking point.
A guy like Aldon Smith. I've seen him in some mocks at 11. I've also seen a reputable recent mock that gives Smith to Detroit. In an NFP mock today, Wes Bunting had the Lions moving to the 10th spot, ahead of Houston, to grab Smith. And what of Washington at 10? If they can't land their QB in the 1st, might they look for an edge rusher to pair with Brian Orakpo, if they have Smith rated higher than DEs like Cam Jordan or J.J. Watt?
If Wade wants to get his guy, he knows Jerry's phone number.
Result: Dallas could move down two spots and probably still have its pick of offensive linemen, while picking up a 4th and a 6th. Are the Texans itchy enough to make this move? I have to think that everybody in that front office and coaching staff is on short time. The Texans have become the 21st century equivalent of the late '60s Cowboys. They're next-year's team.
13. Detroit? Would the Lions move up into the 9th or 10th spots for Aldon Smith? The arguments Bryan Broaddus and Wes Bunting offer make sense. The Lions have the base of a very good defensive line with Ndamukong Suh and Corey Williams inside. They lost Kyle Vandenbosch to injury but Cliff Avril gave them 8.5 sacks last year from left end. Adding an elite edge rusher on the right side could give Detroit one of the best young D-lines in the game, and let Jim Schwartz run the pressure packages he worked for Jeff Fisher in Tennessee.
It's possible, but not likely, in my opinion. The Lions are still several players away from a big jump, but who knows. An Aldon Smith or a Robert Quinn could make the Lions one of this year's Fantastic Four teams.
As with St. Louis, the cost is a high 3rd rounder.
14. St. Louis? Julio Jones is the lure, with Washington also needing a receiver. But would the Rams make this move? They need a receiver desperately, but they also have a lot of other holes to fill. Moving up to 9 would cost them their 3rd round pick and I don't think they're that sold on themselves. They can pick an elite D-lineman, and cross their fingers for Jon Baldwin in the 2nd, while keeping their 3rd.
Result -- If the Rams did love Jones enough to cut the deal, the Cowboys get the 14th pick and an extra mid-3rd round pick. If Jones goes 9, how long before the OTs go? This likely forfeits Tyron Smith, to either the Redskins or Vikings, but if the Texans and Lions take Amukamara and Aldon Smith in some order, Dallas is still in line for an Anthony Castonzo here. J.J. Watt also enters the discussion at 14, if the Lions take Castonzo, a player they are rumored to like.
15. Miami? They don't have move-up ammo. They might jump for a quarterback, but I don't think Dallas gets close to Blaine Gabbert. If Gabbert somehow gets past Arizona at 5, the Browns can auction him off at pick 6. If they decide to stay and pick, San Francisco could land him or take the best offer for him at 7. No team behind Tennessee wants to wait and see if the Titans will take Gabbert at 8. The Cowboys are likely out of luck on the Gabbert front.
17, New England? Is there any player who could entice Bill Belichick to move up? Robert Quinn, perhaps? Aldon Smith?
What about Julio Jones? New England didn't have a deep threat once Randy Moss was dealt to Minnesota. They have Wes Welker to work the middle and two talented and complementary young tight ends in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The Pats played smaller-ball without Moss and it caught up to them when they faced the Jets secondary in the playoffs. This is a team with an aging QB (Tom Brady will be 34 this year) that is not many players away from a Super Bowl run.
Result -- The Cowboys could land an extra 2nd and and extra 3rd rounder if they swapped the 9th for the 17th and sent New England their 5th rounder. I think the Cowboys would make that deal and look at Watt and the best available OT, which could still be Castonzo.
18. San Diego? Chargers GM A.J. Smith played a risky, but initially profitable game on draft day 2005. He took Shawne Merriman one spot after Dallas picked Demarcus Ware. Later that round, he took Northwestern DE Luis Castillo, who had been red-flagged for failing a steroids test. They were the final pieces of a front seven that already featured OLB Shaun Phillips, NT Jamaal Williams and DE Igor Olshansky. Merriman and Castillo combined for 13.5 sacks as rookies and really blew up in '06: Merriman bagged 17.0 sacks and Castillo 7.0 on a front that lead the league with 61.0.
Five years on, Smith needs upgrades at both OLB and DE again. Olshansky left for Dallas. One of Merriman's knees wore out and he now works in Buffalo. Castillo has battled injuries. Larry English, the OLB drafted in '09 to replace Merriman, has not come through. The Chargers were a major underachiever last season; they missed the playoffs after another slow start and the GM and head coach Norv Turner feel some heat. Smith may feel the need to jump.
Result: A move to 9 costs the 50th pick. The Chargers have two 2nds and two 3rds, so they can deal. Watt is a name of interest, but if the Pats take him, and Castonzo is gone, who is the 3rd OT on Dallas' list? Gabe Carimi or Nate Solder? Would you feel the Cowboys lose too much value in the 1st to gain that 2nd if Solder is their guy?
The Cowboys started the 2010 draft with a three-man short list - Mike Iupati, Earl Thomas and Dez Bryant, the 10th, 11th and 12th ranked players on their board. Who, in your opinion, make up that short list in 2011? Here's my guess, based on all the crumbs of information and speculation I've been able to squeeze together:
Tyron Smith
Aldon Smith
Anthony Castonzo
J. J. Watt
Prince Amukamara
Cam Jordan
I'm also guessing their grades are rather close to one another, which explains the Cowboys comfort with a trade down.
Posted by Rafael at Tuesday, April 19, 2011
http://www.cowboysnation.com/2011/04/is-dallas-playing-six-player-card.html
It takes two to tango. We've played the trade-down drill for weeks. The Rams at 14, the Pats and Chargers at 17 and 18 have been the most likely prospects on Dallas' draft dance card. But might other teams be in the mix? Might other teams closer be in the Cowboys' plans?
Let's take Matt Mosley at his word. He cited Valley Ranch sources in an ESPN Radio chat yesterday that Dallas was hoping to trade and would consider moving down to 17 or 18. No surprises there. How many mocks have used 18 as the destination? We've got a short list of players we would all love to plug into the 50th slot if that deal were made.
Let's see how short or how long a trip the Cowboys could take.
11. Houston? A lot of mocks have them taking Nebraska's CB Prince Amukamara in this slot. A corner would certainly help that secondary. But so would a pass rusher. Wade Phillips is moving the Texans to his pressure 3-4. Wade coached Bruce Smith when he was at Buffalo and must feel he has a Baby Bruce in Mario Williams, a do-it-all DL who can rush as a 5-technique. What Phillips lacks is a Demarcus Ware, an outside backer who can rush wide of Williams and bend an offensive line's left side to the breaking point.
A guy like Aldon Smith. I've seen him in some mocks at 11. I've also seen a reputable recent mock that gives Smith to Detroit. In an NFP mock today, Wes Bunting had the Lions moving to the 10th spot, ahead of Houston, to grab Smith. And what of Washington at 10? If they can't land their QB in the 1st, might they look for an edge rusher to pair with Brian Orakpo, if they have Smith rated higher than DEs like Cam Jordan or J.J. Watt?
If Wade wants to get his guy, he knows Jerry's phone number.
Result: Dallas could move down two spots and probably still have its pick of offensive linemen, while picking up a 4th and a 6th. Are the Texans itchy enough to make this move? I have to think that everybody in that front office and coaching staff is on short time. The Texans have become the 21st century equivalent of the late '60s Cowboys. They're next-year's team.
13. Detroit? Would the Lions move up into the 9th or 10th spots for Aldon Smith? The arguments Bryan Broaddus and Wes Bunting offer make sense. The Lions have the base of a very good defensive line with Ndamukong Suh and Corey Williams inside. They lost Kyle Vandenbosch to injury but Cliff Avril gave them 8.5 sacks last year from left end. Adding an elite edge rusher on the right side could give Detroit one of the best young D-lines in the game, and let Jim Schwartz run the pressure packages he worked for Jeff Fisher in Tennessee.
It's possible, but not likely, in my opinion. The Lions are still several players away from a big jump, but who knows. An Aldon Smith or a Robert Quinn could make the Lions one of this year's Fantastic Four teams.
As with St. Louis, the cost is a high 3rd rounder.
14. St. Louis? Julio Jones is the lure, with Washington also needing a receiver. But would the Rams make this move? They need a receiver desperately, but they also have a lot of other holes to fill. Moving up to 9 would cost them their 3rd round pick and I don't think they're that sold on themselves. They can pick an elite D-lineman, and cross their fingers for Jon Baldwin in the 2nd, while keeping their 3rd.
Result -- If the Rams did love Jones enough to cut the deal, the Cowboys get the 14th pick and an extra mid-3rd round pick. If Jones goes 9, how long before the OTs go? This likely forfeits Tyron Smith, to either the Redskins or Vikings, but if the Texans and Lions take Amukamara and Aldon Smith in some order, Dallas is still in line for an Anthony Castonzo here. J.J. Watt also enters the discussion at 14, if the Lions take Castonzo, a player they are rumored to like.
15. Miami? They don't have move-up ammo. They might jump for a quarterback, but I don't think Dallas gets close to Blaine Gabbert. If Gabbert somehow gets past Arizona at 5, the Browns can auction him off at pick 6. If they decide to stay and pick, San Francisco could land him or take the best offer for him at 7. No team behind Tennessee wants to wait and see if the Titans will take Gabbert at 8. The Cowboys are likely out of luck on the Gabbert front.
17, New England? Is there any player who could entice Bill Belichick to move up? Robert Quinn, perhaps? Aldon Smith?
What about Julio Jones? New England didn't have a deep threat once Randy Moss was dealt to Minnesota. They have Wes Welker to work the middle and two talented and complementary young tight ends in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The Pats played smaller-ball without Moss and it caught up to them when they faced the Jets secondary in the playoffs. This is a team with an aging QB (Tom Brady will be 34 this year) that is not many players away from a Super Bowl run.
Result -- The Cowboys could land an extra 2nd and and extra 3rd rounder if they swapped the 9th for the 17th and sent New England their 5th rounder. I think the Cowboys would make that deal and look at Watt and the best available OT, which could still be Castonzo.
18. San Diego? Chargers GM A.J. Smith played a risky, but initially profitable game on draft day 2005. He took Shawne Merriman one spot after Dallas picked Demarcus Ware. Later that round, he took Northwestern DE Luis Castillo, who had been red-flagged for failing a steroids test. They were the final pieces of a front seven that already featured OLB Shaun Phillips, NT Jamaal Williams and DE Igor Olshansky. Merriman and Castillo combined for 13.5 sacks as rookies and really blew up in '06: Merriman bagged 17.0 sacks and Castillo 7.0 on a front that lead the league with 61.0.
Five years on, Smith needs upgrades at both OLB and DE again. Olshansky left for Dallas. One of Merriman's knees wore out and he now works in Buffalo. Castillo has battled injuries. Larry English, the OLB drafted in '09 to replace Merriman, has not come through. The Chargers were a major underachiever last season; they missed the playoffs after another slow start and the GM and head coach Norv Turner feel some heat. Smith may feel the need to jump.
Result: A move to 9 costs the 50th pick. The Chargers have two 2nds and two 3rds, so they can deal. Watt is a name of interest, but if the Pats take him, and Castonzo is gone, who is the 3rd OT on Dallas' list? Gabe Carimi or Nate Solder? Would you feel the Cowboys lose too much value in the 1st to gain that 2nd if Solder is their guy?
The Cowboys started the 2010 draft with a three-man short list - Mike Iupati, Earl Thomas and Dez Bryant, the 10th, 11th and 12th ranked players on their board. Who, in your opinion, make up that short list in 2011? Here's my guess, based on all the crumbs of information and speculation I've been able to squeeze together:
Tyron Smith
Aldon Smith
Anthony Castonzo
J. J. Watt
Prince Amukamara
Cam Jordan
I'm also guessing their grades are rather close to one another, which explains the Cowboys comfort with a trade down.