Doomsday

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They predict a Seahawks/Dolphins Super Bowl.

A Way-Too-Early Prediction of the NFL Season | The Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective

I’ll try to put together a prediction model for the NFL season using a more quantitative method than the likes of Trent Dilfer.

The biggest challenge obviously is to come up with a sound way to estimate team strength, an endeavor that’s demanding considering the amount of personnel turnover each offseason and the lack of advanced statistics to evaluate player interactions. The method that I came up with uses Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value statistic, the site’s best measure of trying to tease out individual talent. Then, using ESPN’s NFL depth charts, I aggregated each team’s per game approximate value of what I considered to be the “core” makeup of an NFL team: QB, RB, 2 WR, TE, Top 2 OL, the Top-4 “Front Seven” defensive players, and the Top-2 players from the secondary.

There were some exceptions to simply using last year’s AV. If a team had an absent starter that was injured or suspended for the majority of last year (e.g. Adrian Peterson), I used the player’s 2013 AV value. And, if ESPN listed a rookie as a starter, I took the AV of the backup with the reasoning that, if the rookie ends up starting, he should perform at least as good as the person that is backing him up. So, I used the per-game AV of Josh McCown as a substitute for Jameis Winston in my model since predicting rookie performance is another battle of its own. This will inflate the odds for teams who plan to stick with a struggling rookie through thick and thin, and hurt teams who find a phenom rookie.

To make sure this was a sound method, I tested it out on last year’s data and ran a regression to see if AV was predictive of the end-of-regular season Elo ratings as reported by FiveThirtyEight. Aggregated AV was indeed significant with a T-stat of 8.57. It was also a strong predictor of Elo, as the regression returned a .72 R-Squared value.

This model does not account for aging, but I make the assumption that in aggregating these AV totals, the positive and negative effects of aging on an individual will, for a team, net out to around zero. So this model favors aging teams and may hinder up-and-coming teams.

I therefore ran a Monte Carlo simulation of each team’s season, calculating win probabilities based on the Elo ratings using the following formula: 1/(10^(Opponent Elo – Elo)/400)+1). Using Benjamin Morris’ conversion table from wins to playoff odds, I then calculated the odds that a team would make the playoffs for the upcoming year. I then normalized it so an average of 12 teams would make the playoffs every year.
Here's the resulting chart:

harvardbull.png


More reading at link.
 
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Pro Football Reference stats will be a truer measure of older players than younger ones, and those teams with older players will be more affected by age and injury than those with younger players. So younger teams right off the bat are not properly evaluated.

Also an assumption that the entire league will be affected by aging in equal measure is as faulty as saying every team will be affected by injury equally.
 

Doomsday

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Not hard to make a case for that Dolphin D though, with the addition of Suh.
 
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It would actually make sense considering how we struggle to string back to back strong seasons together.
 

LAZARUS_LOGAN

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What? Seriously, 23%? Their methodology has to be seriously flawed.


Click bait. Rank the Cowboys' low and have people that love and hate the Cowboys talk about it.

I'm curious as to what bullshit extrapolation that they manipulated to arrive at this.
 

Doomsday

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But in THAT division?
In that division with the Cheatriots and with Buffalo getting Ryan as HC and Dennis Thurman as DC, makes it have some hard bark on it I agree. But in that division without Suh, that Dolphin D was pretty decent and had flashes of pretty good.
 

ThoughtExperiment

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They explain the methodology completely, in the article.

I just skimmed it the other day and don't have time to look up PFR's Approximate Value ranks, but there's no way our team isn't far more talented than most of those teams above us.
 

Doomsday

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I just skimmed it the other day and don't have time to look up PFR's Approximate Value ranks, but there's no way our team isn't far more talented than most of those teams above us.
I think the "study" is BS too and wonder more about if we paid for this shit or what, how did it get funded, than I do about what it actually says. 23 percent chance to make the playoffs? Even I who am as pessimistic as can be like their odds of making the playoffs a lot better than that. I figure 33 percent is a good number I wouldn't argue with too much.

They have the NFC East as:

Giants
Eagles
Cowboys
Redskins

Who the hell thinks the Giants win the East?
 

LAZARUS_LOGAN

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In that division with the Cheatriots and with Buffalo getting Ryan as HC and Dennis Thurman as DC, makes it have some hard bark on it I agree. But in that division without Suh, that Dolphin D was pretty decent and had flashes of pretty good.


I read what you are saying but you take the other divisions: AFC North --- that sent three teams to the playoffs (got both WCs), the AFC South with the perennial Colts, and the Texans on the come-up, then the AFC West with the perrenial Broncos and the Chargers as well as the Chiefs. With that... I only see one team out of the AFC East making the playoffs.
 

LAZARUS_LOGAN

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I think the "study" is BS too and wonder more about if we paid for this shit or what, how did it get funded, than I do about what it actually says. 23 percent chance to make the playoffs? Even I who am as pessimistic as can be like their odds of making the playoffs a lot better than that. I figure 33 percent is a good number I wouldn't argue with too much.

They have the NFC East as:

Giants
Eagles
Cowboys
Redskins

Who the hell thinks the Giants win the East?


I've learned long ago, not to count out the Giants. But even still.

All these people are giving the Eagles so much love, but Babe Laufenberg pointed this out and how he didn't understand it of how the Cowboys offensively are superior to the Eagles at QB, WR, TE, OL, and were at RB until the Eagles signed Murray.
 

Doomsday

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I've learned long ago, not to count out the Giants. But even still.

All these people are giving the Eagles so much love, but Babe Laufenberg pointed this out and how he didn't understand it of how the Cowboys offensively are superior to the Eagles at QB, WR, TE, OL, and were at RB until the Eagles signed Murray.
Well, the Giants are a good team and can tune it up and be a threat. The Eagles - this year reminds me of their "dream team" year and I don't consider them much of a threat. I mean, where's the chemistry gonna come from? Murray, he won't see 225 carries in that offense anyway and won't be beasting it - unless it's us he is playing. But even at that I expect him to cough up a fumble or two for us.

This of course assumes most things being equal, us catching breaks like last year, etc - especially on the injury front.
I read what you are saying but you take the other divisions: AFC North --- that sent three teams to the playoffs (got both WCs), the AFC South with the perennial Colts, and the Texans on the come-up, then the AFC West with the perrenial Broncos and the Chargers as well as the Chiefs. With that... I only see one team out of the AFC East making the playoffs.
Reasonable. And that team might just BE the Fins, with Suh.
 

boozeman

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What? Seriously, 23%? Their methodology has to be seriously flawed.

I think the fact they have Miami and Kansas City as the conference runner ups is a tell tale sign.

Complete horseshit.

This is about what you would get if you locked Sheldon Cooper and Leonard Hofstadter in a room and told them they had to come up with Super Bowl odds.
 
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