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NFL Future Power Rankings takeaways: Rams, Colts, Cowboys in trouble
Kevin Seifert
NFL Nation
No NFL team, not a single one, would ever aspire to be a one-year contender. That never happens. Ever. I swear. Poll all 32 owners and their general managers, and each of them would spit back some version of this organizational expectation: sustained success over time.
ESPN Insider's annual Future Power Rankings holds teams accountable to that priority. At its core, the project attempts to gauge how franchises have set themselves up for at least the midrange future. It obviously can't take into account unknown draft decisions and unmade moves in free agency, but neither should any team's blueprints.
All we can do is work with what we know, and what follows are five of the most important takeaways from the project:
1. The shine is officially gone from coach Jeff Fisher
Fact: It has been a long time since Fisher had a good team. Supporters will point to the Rams' death march in St. Louis and Sam Bradford's knees as mitigating factors. But the last Fisher team with a winning record was the 2008 Tennessee Titans, and he hasn't won a playoff game since 2003. His long streak of mediocre (or worse) results is no longer whitewashed. Rams owner Stan Kroenke values him as a transitional leader, explaining his continued tenure. But our Insiders ranked the Rams' coaching staff, led by Fisher and featuring a series of recent changes at offensive coordinator, to be the league's absolute worst. It was the biggest reason the Rams -- despite excitement over tailback Todd Gurley, quarterback Jared Goff and a talented defense -- are No. 30 in these rankings. It's difficult to argue with the history.
2. Poor Andrew Luck
This project helps quantify a familiar dynamic: That the Indianapolis Colts haven't put their star quarterback in a great position moving forward. You can argue about Luck's individual ranking here -- that he'll be a top-five quarterback in 2018 -- but the rest of the organization has provided little fodder to dispute its dismal appraisal. Can you name 15 players that form a foundational nucleus around Luck? Do you trust general manager Ryan Grigson to improve his draft record rapidly? Can you glean any traces of coach Chuck Pagano's style in the way the Colts play? In the end, we reach the same conclusion: The Colts' future is cloudy -- even with a potential Hall of Fame quarterback entering his prime.
3. How long for Carson Palmer?
The Arizona Cardinals are 29-9 in the games Palmer has started over the past three seasons, and a top-10 Future Power Ranking seems fair -- as long as Palmer maintains what has been the best stretch of his career. Coach Bruce Arians and general manager Steve Keim also fare well in this analysis, but it's hard to separate their success from their quarterback's. Does Palmer, at age 36 and after three ACL repairs, have three more years in him? And should the Cardinals' lack of a succession plan count against the goal of sustained success? One point to keep in mind: The Cardinals aren't likely to be in position to draft a top-end quarterback anytime soon. To place a team led by a 36-year-old quarterback to be among the league's best in three years is, well, aggressive.
4. Whoa there, Cowboy
A common NFL narrative suggests the Dallas Cowboys have turned an administrative corner as executive vice president Stephen Jones' influence expands. Roster talent has grown in at least some areas, especially at offensive line, and there are some genuine stars on the roster from receiver Dez Bryant to quarterback Tony Romo to rookie tailback Ezekiel Elliott. But the Cowboys fared poorly throughout these ratings, finishing No. 21 or lower in terms of roster, quarterback, coaching and draft. Overall, the Cowboys were considered the 26th-best prepared team for the mid-term future. This seemed harsh, but not necessarily wrong when you think about the age of Romo and tight end Jason Witten, and a largely patchwork defense. The biggest issue is Romo's age (36) and durability combined with the utter lack of a succession plan. The Future Power Rankings project counts on highly productive quarterback play from other aging stars, but it's difficult to expect that for Romo. And in this case, conventional wisdom should be challenged.
5. Good lord, San Francisco
Just a few years ago, the 49ers seemed to have everything going for them: One of the NFL's best coaches in Jim Harbaugh, an ascending quarterback in Colin Kaepernick and a roster stocked with homegrown talent. In fact, they ranked No. 1 in ESPN's 2013 Future Power Rankings. The obvious lesson is that life changes fast in the NFL. The other is that not only have the 49ers declined, as we all know, but they've been battered beyond recognition. The only team less prepared for the future, according to ESPN Insider, is the Cleveland Browns. The Cleveland Browns. I'm not ready to write them off so quickly. If coach Chip Kelly can prop up Nick Foles as a 27-touchdown, two-interception quarterback -- as he did in Philadelphia in 2013 -- then there is still hope for Kaepernick or even Blaine Gabbert. Youth and competency at quarterback would make their future brighter than half the NFL's teams.
Kevin Seifert
NFL Nation
No NFL team, not a single one, would ever aspire to be a one-year contender. That never happens. Ever. I swear. Poll all 32 owners and their general managers, and each of them would spit back some version of this organizational expectation: sustained success over time.
ESPN Insider's annual Future Power Rankings holds teams accountable to that priority. At its core, the project attempts to gauge how franchises have set themselves up for at least the midrange future. It obviously can't take into account unknown draft decisions and unmade moves in free agency, but neither should any team's blueprints.
All we can do is work with what we know, and what follows are five of the most important takeaways from the project:
1. The shine is officially gone from coach Jeff Fisher
Fact: It has been a long time since Fisher had a good team. Supporters will point to the Rams' death march in St. Louis and Sam Bradford's knees as mitigating factors. But the last Fisher team with a winning record was the 2008 Tennessee Titans, and he hasn't won a playoff game since 2003. His long streak of mediocre (or worse) results is no longer whitewashed. Rams owner Stan Kroenke values him as a transitional leader, explaining his continued tenure. But our Insiders ranked the Rams' coaching staff, led by Fisher and featuring a series of recent changes at offensive coordinator, to be the league's absolute worst. It was the biggest reason the Rams -- despite excitement over tailback Todd Gurley, quarterback Jared Goff and a talented defense -- are No. 30 in these rankings. It's difficult to argue with the history.
2. Poor Andrew Luck
This project helps quantify a familiar dynamic: That the Indianapolis Colts haven't put their star quarterback in a great position moving forward. You can argue about Luck's individual ranking here -- that he'll be a top-five quarterback in 2018 -- but the rest of the organization has provided little fodder to dispute its dismal appraisal. Can you name 15 players that form a foundational nucleus around Luck? Do you trust general manager Ryan Grigson to improve his draft record rapidly? Can you glean any traces of coach Chuck Pagano's style in the way the Colts play? In the end, we reach the same conclusion: The Colts' future is cloudy -- even with a potential Hall of Fame quarterback entering his prime.
3. How long for Carson Palmer?
The Arizona Cardinals are 29-9 in the games Palmer has started over the past three seasons, and a top-10 Future Power Ranking seems fair -- as long as Palmer maintains what has been the best stretch of his career. Coach Bruce Arians and general manager Steve Keim also fare well in this analysis, but it's hard to separate their success from their quarterback's. Does Palmer, at age 36 and after three ACL repairs, have three more years in him? And should the Cardinals' lack of a succession plan count against the goal of sustained success? One point to keep in mind: The Cardinals aren't likely to be in position to draft a top-end quarterback anytime soon. To place a team led by a 36-year-old quarterback to be among the league's best in three years is, well, aggressive.
4. Whoa there, Cowboy
A common NFL narrative suggests the Dallas Cowboys have turned an administrative corner as executive vice president Stephen Jones' influence expands. Roster talent has grown in at least some areas, especially at offensive line, and there are some genuine stars on the roster from receiver Dez Bryant to quarterback Tony Romo to rookie tailback Ezekiel Elliott. But the Cowboys fared poorly throughout these ratings, finishing No. 21 or lower in terms of roster, quarterback, coaching and draft. Overall, the Cowboys were considered the 26th-best prepared team for the mid-term future. This seemed harsh, but not necessarily wrong when you think about the age of Romo and tight end Jason Witten, and a largely patchwork defense. The biggest issue is Romo's age (36) and durability combined with the utter lack of a succession plan. The Future Power Rankings project counts on highly productive quarterback play from other aging stars, but it's difficult to expect that for Romo. And in this case, conventional wisdom should be challenged.
5. Good lord, San Francisco
Just a few years ago, the 49ers seemed to have everything going for them: One of the NFL's best coaches in Jim Harbaugh, an ascending quarterback in Colin Kaepernick and a roster stocked with homegrown talent. In fact, they ranked No. 1 in ESPN's 2013 Future Power Rankings. The obvious lesson is that life changes fast in the NFL. The other is that not only have the 49ers declined, as we all know, but they've been battered beyond recognition. The only team less prepared for the future, according to ESPN Insider, is the Cleveland Browns. The Cleveland Browns. I'm not ready to write them off so quickly. If coach Chip Kelly can prop up Nick Foles as a 27-touchdown, two-interception quarterback -- as he did in Philadelphia in 2013 -- then there is still hope for Kaepernick or even Blaine Gabbert. Youth and competency at quarterback would make their future brighter than half the NFL's teams.
