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Cowlishaw: Jason Garrett could be the next Sean Payton
03:19 PM CST on Thursday, November 25, 2010

COLUMN By TIM COWLISHAW / The Dallas Morning News
wtcowlishaw@dallasnews.com

Tim Cowlishaw
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When Cowboys owner Jerry Jones turns his gaze to the opponent's sideline today, he's likely to be struck by two thoughts about Saints coach Sean Payton.

One. "I used to have him."

Two. "How do I get him?"

Possible answer: He already has him. Again.

When Jason Garrett was hired as offensive coordinator in 2007 – actually he was just hired, period, before a head coach was named and then the coordinator title came after – he talked about his influences. Payton, who was offensive coordinator when Garrett played in New York, ranked right at the top.

That was an easy choice to make, given that Payton had just led the Saints to an NFC Championship Game that month.

Now a head coach, Garrett continues to talk glowingly about Payton. Again it comes with good reason.

The defending Super Bowl champs are on a roll, having won four of five to raise their record to 7-3, while scoring nearly 30 points a game during that stretch.

Garrett has admired Payton's approach to offensive football for years. For the first time, he has to worry about stopping it.

"When you're trying to defend them, you look at it a little differently. There are challenges all over the place," Garrett said. "There are scheme challenges. There are personnel challenges."

It would be unfair to call Garrett a "Payton wannabe" but certainly he has in recent years at least emulated his approach. The Cowboys, like the Saints, have been mostly a pass-first offense that could throw multiple backs and receivers into the offensive mix.

If you look at Payton's record as coordinator in New York and then in Dallas under Bill Parcells, there's nothing to suggest he was any more of a lock as a head coach than Garrett's résumé says about the Cowboys' interim coach.

And I think Jones has to consider the possibility of Garrett being the next Payton when he makes a determination on who coaches this team in 2011.

Fans tend to focus on Jones going out and signing Bill Cowher or Jon Gruden for two reasons. One is that, as TV personalities, they are presumably available. Two is that each won a Super Bowl ring as a head coach.

But really when a team is looking for a coach, hiring a Cowher or Gruden (or Payton if he were suddenly somehow available) isn't usually the right answer.

It's hiring the guy who is going to become the next Cowher, Gruden or Payton.

And that guy might be Jason Garrett.

Coaches in their second or third NFL stops are rarely as successful as they were in their first. There are exceptions to this rule and New England's Bill Belichick, who failed to achieve much in Cleveland, heads that list.

But the careers of Bill Parcells, of Jimmy Johnson , of Mike Holmgren, of Mike Ditka, of George Seifert – this list goes on – tell us that the first stop is more often the best stop.

After that, coaches lose coordinators and trusted key assistants. Sometimes they become invested with power that they want but don't really need.

Technically, Gruden won a Super Bowl in his second stop, not his first. But he won in Tampa Bay with a team that had come close under Tony Dungy. And he beat an Oakland team that Gruden himself had constructed. There's not much question Gruden had more consistent success in his first stop than his second.

Cowher is nearly impossible to evaluate because of Pittsburgh's unique situation as the NFL's most successful franchise of the Super Bowl era. They won with Chuck Noll. They won with Cowher. They already have won with Mike Tomlin.

That's why Jones' task is to find the coach – more likely an NFL coordinator than a college head coach – who is poised to achieve great things in his first NFL head coaching job.

Victories over the Giants and Lions tell us little about where the Cowboys might be headed with Garrett. It's more about how he approached his time as coordinator here and the successes he managed (they gained a lot of yards) and the times he failed (they didn't always score a lot of points).

I don't know if he's the next Sean Payton. Neither do you, and neither will Jerry Jones when he makes the Cowboys' next big decision.

What I do know is that NFL titles are more often won by first-time coaches on their way up, not by those who made a name for themselves in one place and tried to re-establish their greatness in another.

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