Part II on Cowboys Nation's conversation with ESPN.com's K.C. Joyner looks at free agent safety Danieal Manning and considers whether Dallas would benefit more from a top safety signing or from a plus-level corner?
Cowboys Nation: Let me take you back to the conclusion you drew when we talked about Eric Weddle and Michael Huff a few weeks ago. You mentioned how awful the Cowboys safeties were last year in deep help; that even when the safeties were giving help over the top, they had an average YPA of 12.9, which is a terrible number.
You conclusion then was that a good center-fielder type, who could eliminate or sharply curtail the completion of deep passes could mean around 300 fewer pass yards over the course of a season. I'm going to raise more names and I'd like you to discuss them in this context. Are these safeties guy who can take away the 40 to 60 yard play.
Let's go to Danieal Manning, from Chicago.
K.C. Joyner: Manning had 15 deep assist plays last year with Chicago. Two of them were penalized plays. One was offensive pass interference play, the other was on the corner, not on him. Take those two away, you're down to 13 plays. He had 13 passes thrown his way. He allows 5 completions. That's not necessarily great. One of his deep assists was an intermediate play. The others were deep passes and bomb passes.
Of the total, eleven were deep and bomb, four were complete. That's around 33%. Ah, you would like to see better that that. A team will generally throw 4 to 5 stretch vertical passes per game. If you're 33% that means you're allowing a deep or a bomb play every game, sometimes more than that. You obviously don't want that.
33% isn't horrible but understand that there are starting safeties out there who allow 20%. There are some who allow less than that. Of those 13 total plays, he allowed 136 yards. That's more than 10.0 yards per attempt.
CN: That's not much better than what the Cowboys got last year, and nobody wants a repeat of that.
K.C.: He a real hit or miss guy. Sometimes he's going to stop it. Sometimes he's not. And I think the Cowboys want better than that.
This is a team with a lot of talent that wants to get back in the playoff run. You're not going to stop the Philadelphia Eagles with anything other than a top free safety.
CN: No, with Mike Vick and that boot action, and his arm, and the speed they have at the receiver position, no.
K.C.: You're in a division with the Giants, and their receivers corps. You're in a conference with Aaron Rodgers, who had the highest vertical yards per attempt average of any quarterback in the league. You've got to stop them.
It's always been a given that you've got to stop the deep pass, and Dallas didn't last year. Looking at their numbers, they don't need just a modest upgrade, they need a bit upgrade. Danieal Manning doesn't offer that. He might be a slight upgrade, but he's not a big upgrade.
CN: Let me re-frame the question a bit. You've looked at YPAs and yards allowed and prevented on secondary players for years. If the Cowboys had the budget for one serious, big-ticket buy, what gives them more bang for their buck, a top-tier free safety, or a top-tier cornerback?
K.C.: Corner. Even a top-tier cornerback is going to face 50-60 passes a year. Raiders fans like to talk about Nnamdi Asomugha and say, ''he only was thrown at 29 times.'' Teams avoided him because the corner opposite Asomugha was generally much weaker than he was. You could afford to avoid Asomugha, and in recent years you could run on Oakland.
If a team like Dallas could sign him, would he be thrown at 29 times? I doubt it. In the division they're in? I don't think the Eagles would completely ignore Asomugha. I don't think the Giants would.
Remember a couple of years ago, Darrelle Revis had 105 passes thrown his way. He led the league in pass attempts. It was also the year he led the league in YPA, but he had more passes thrown his way because the Jets designed a defense that dictated, ''we're going to make you throw his way.'' Could the Cowboys play the same type of defense? Would they try to funnel plays towards an Asomugha? They could.
I would bet that if Dallas somehow signed a Nnamdi Asomugha, he would be thrown at 50, 60, 70 times. I could be wrong. It could be the same as in Oakland, but I think Dallas would approach it differently.
If you're getting 50, 60, 70 passes thrown your way, and you're an above average corner, that's more valuable than a safety. A safety has value because he'll stop over-the-top stuff, but a safety, a pure free safety, which is what Dallas needs, probably won't play in the box as much, so your impact is muted there. A good corner is going to help at the line of scrimmage on run plays.
Last I checked, Asomugha was the biggest corner in the league. He might not be anymore, but he would be one of the biggest. The guy can stop the run. He's got the speed to keep up with the Hakeem Nicks and the Mario Manninghams, the Jeremy Maclins and the Desean Jacksons.
CN: I've heard that he's a ''long shot'' for Dallas. That's the phrase I keep hearing. If the NFL goes back to the four-year UFA system, Dallas has Doug Free approaching the market. Here's a 27 year old, who was really good in pass protection in his first full year as a starter.
I wrote a piece about this a while back and asked the question, when is the last time a clean, no injury history, able, young, top quartile pass blocking left tackle hit the market? It may have happened, but I don't remember it.
Re-signing Free will cost a lot. I can't see them locking down Free and chasing Nnamdi Asomugha. Those could be the two most expensive players in free agency.
K.C.: They could get creative. They did it with Deion. What's their cap situation?
CN: They're forecast to be over the cap, whatever it may be. They will have to slice salaries to keep Doug Free. Now, they have some big, bad contracts they can whack. Marion Barber has a large deal. Marc Colombo is due to make between 5 to 6 million, around the same as Barber. He'll probably be cut.
Terence Newman had an eight-figure salary the last couple of years. That's another 10-11 million off the books if you are looking to increase your budget. Roy Williams has a similar contract. That's roughly $30 million in cap space the Cowboys could locate without serious pain.
K.C.: You're a lot closer to the team than I am, and I may be way off-base, but I have faith that if Jerry Jones looked at a guy like Asomugha and decided, "I'm going to get that guy on my team,'' he could make it happen.
If you're a guy like Asomugha, there are other teams that need you. The Detroit Lions could use him big-time. The Houston Texans could. I've got nothing against Detroit. They've got a good-looking young defensive line, but it's the Lions.
If you're Asomugha and you're thinking, "I could be this generation's Deion Sanders,'' and if Jerry Jones found a way to pursue him? It may just be me, and his numbers have not been as good as people have made him out to be. Some people speak of Asomugha as unstoppable. He's not unstoppable. The Chargers had some success throwing at him. He's had some very good but not great numbers the last two years, but he's got elite talent.
Let's put it in context. The Cowboys corners had a YPA of 9.4 last year. That's all qualifiers and it only takes 29 passes to qualify. That was the worst unit YPA in the league. You put an elite guy like him on one side and he drops that YPA to around 6.0. You get Mike Jenkins to rebound and post a number around, say, 7.0.
You get the Cowboys team number closer to 7.0 than 9.4, that's huge. You're chopping hundreds of yards off the team totals. And Asomugha isn't the only top free agent corner out there. There are several others.
Cowboys Nation: Let me take you back to the conclusion you drew when we talked about Eric Weddle and Michael Huff a few weeks ago. You mentioned how awful the Cowboys safeties were last year in deep help; that even when the safeties were giving help over the top, they had an average YPA of 12.9, which is a terrible number.
You conclusion then was that a good center-fielder type, who could eliminate or sharply curtail the completion of deep passes could mean around 300 fewer pass yards over the course of a season. I'm going to raise more names and I'd like you to discuss them in this context. Are these safeties guy who can take away the 40 to 60 yard play.
Let's go to Danieal Manning, from Chicago.
K.C. Joyner: Manning had 15 deep assist plays last year with Chicago. Two of them were penalized plays. One was offensive pass interference play, the other was on the corner, not on him. Take those two away, you're down to 13 plays. He had 13 passes thrown his way. He allows 5 completions. That's not necessarily great. One of his deep assists was an intermediate play. The others were deep passes and bomb passes.
Of the total, eleven were deep and bomb, four were complete. That's around 33%. Ah, you would like to see better that that. A team will generally throw 4 to 5 stretch vertical passes per game. If you're 33% that means you're allowing a deep or a bomb play every game, sometimes more than that. You obviously don't want that.
33% isn't horrible but understand that there are starting safeties out there who allow 20%. There are some who allow less than that. Of those 13 total plays, he allowed 136 yards. That's more than 10.0 yards per attempt.
CN: That's not much better than what the Cowboys got last year, and nobody wants a repeat of that.
K.C.: He a real hit or miss guy. Sometimes he's going to stop it. Sometimes he's not. And I think the Cowboys want better than that.
This is a team with a lot of talent that wants to get back in the playoff run. You're not going to stop the Philadelphia Eagles with anything other than a top free safety.
CN: No, with Mike Vick and that boot action, and his arm, and the speed they have at the receiver position, no.
K.C.: You're in a division with the Giants, and their receivers corps. You're in a conference with Aaron Rodgers, who had the highest vertical yards per attempt average of any quarterback in the league. You've got to stop them.
It's always been a given that you've got to stop the deep pass, and Dallas didn't last year. Looking at their numbers, they don't need just a modest upgrade, they need a bit upgrade. Danieal Manning doesn't offer that. He might be a slight upgrade, but he's not a big upgrade.
CN: Let me re-frame the question a bit. You've looked at YPAs and yards allowed and prevented on secondary players for years. If the Cowboys had the budget for one serious, big-ticket buy, what gives them more bang for their buck, a top-tier free safety, or a top-tier cornerback?
K.C.: Corner. Even a top-tier cornerback is going to face 50-60 passes a year. Raiders fans like to talk about Nnamdi Asomugha and say, ''he only was thrown at 29 times.'' Teams avoided him because the corner opposite Asomugha was generally much weaker than he was. You could afford to avoid Asomugha, and in recent years you could run on Oakland.
If a team like Dallas could sign him, would he be thrown at 29 times? I doubt it. In the division they're in? I don't think the Eagles would completely ignore Asomugha. I don't think the Giants would.
Remember a couple of years ago, Darrelle Revis had 105 passes thrown his way. He led the league in pass attempts. It was also the year he led the league in YPA, but he had more passes thrown his way because the Jets designed a defense that dictated, ''we're going to make you throw his way.'' Could the Cowboys play the same type of defense? Would they try to funnel plays towards an Asomugha? They could.
I would bet that if Dallas somehow signed a Nnamdi Asomugha, he would be thrown at 50, 60, 70 times. I could be wrong. It could be the same as in Oakland, but I think Dallas would approach it differently.
If you're getting 50, 60, 70 passes thrown your way, and you're an above average corner, that's more valuable than a safety. A safety has value because he'll stop over-the-top stuff, but a safety, a pure free safety, which is what Dallas needs, probably won't play in the box as much, so your impact is muted there. A good corner is going to help at the line of scrimmage on run plays.
Last I checked, Asomugha was the biggest corner in the league. He might not be anymore, but he would be one of the biggest. The guy can stop the run. He's got the speed to keep up with the Hakeem Nicks and the Mario Manninghams, the Jeremy Maclins and the Desean Jacksons.
CN: I've heard that he's a ''long shot'' for Dallas. That's the phrase I keep hearing. If the NFL goes back to the four-year UFA system, Dallas has Doug Free approaching the market. Here's a 27 year old, who was really good in pass protection in his first full year as a starter.
I wrote a piece about this a while back and asked the question, when is the last time a clean, no injury history, able, young, top quartile pass blocking left tackle hit the market? It may have happened, but I don't remember it.
Re-signing Free will cost a lot. I can't see them locking down Free and chasing Nnamdi Asomugha. Those could be the two most expensive players in free agency.
K.C.: They could get creative. They did it with Deion. What's their cap situation?
CN: They're forecast to be over the cap, whatever it may be. They will have to slice salaries to keep Doug Free. Now, they have some big, bad contracts they can whack. Marion Barber has a large deal. Marc Colombo is due to make between 5 to 6 million, around the same as Barber. He'll probably be cut.
Terence Newman had an eight-figure salary the last couple of years. That's another 10-11 million off the books if you are looking to increase your budget. Roy Williams has a similar contract. That's roughly $30 million in cap space the Cowboys could locate without serious pain.
K.C.: You're a lot closer to the team than I am, and I may be way off-base, but I have faith that if Jerry Jones looked at a guy like Asomugha and decided, "I'm going to get that guy on my team,'' he could make it happen.
If you're a guy like Asomugha, there are other teams that need you. The Detroit Lions could use him big-time. The Houston Texans could. I've got nothing against Detroit. They've got a good-looking young defensive line, but it's the Lions.
If you're Asomugha and you're thinking, "I could be this generation's Deion Sanders,'' and if Jerry Jones found a way to pursue him? It may just be me, and his numbers have not been as good as people have made him out to be. Some people speak of Asomugha as unstoppable. He's not unstoppable. The Chargers had some success throwing at him. He's had some very good but not great numbers the last two years, but he's got elite talent.
Let's put it in context. The Cowboys corners had a YPA of 9.4 last year. That's all qualifiers and it only takes 29 passes to qualify. That was the worst unit YPA in the league. You put an elite guy like him on one side and he drops that YPA to around 6.0. You get Mike Jenkins to rebound and post a number around, say, 7.0.
You get the Cowboys team number closer to 7.0 than 9.4, that's huge. You're chopping hundreds of yards off the team totals. And Asomugha isn't the only top free agent corner out there. There are several others.
