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Best and Worst Run Stop Rates 2010
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2011/best-and-worst-run-stop-rates-2010
by Aaron Schatz
Time to continue our series presenting various 2010 stats from the multitude of Football Outsiders spreadsheets. Today, let's look at Stop Rate for running plays.
Stop Rate is defined as the percentage of a players Plays that were Stops. Plays are any time a player shows up in the play-by-play on defense: tackles, assists, forced fumbles, etc. Stops are plays that stop the offense short of what FO considers a successful play: 45 percent of yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third or fourth down.
Obviously, Stop Rate isn't a perfect stat. It measures the plays that a player makes, not the plays he misses or the plays he doesn't even get a chance to miss because he is being properly blocked away from the ballcarrier. Still, it gives you a good idea of where players were making their plays and thus why certain defenses were good or bad at certain parts of the game in 2010.
The tables below are limited solely to running plays, including scrambles. We give Run Stop Rate as well as number of Plays and number of Defeats, plus yards per play, which is the average length of a run past the line of scrimmage when this player had a tackle or assist.
(Note that the minimums I'm using here aren't necessarily the same minimums that we use when ranking players in this stat on the FO player pages, so the rank here may be different from the rank on a player's page. We keep those minimums very standard no matter the stat we're measuring in order to make it easier to put the player pages together.)
Best Run Stop Rates for LB, 2010 (min. 30 Plays)
Player Team Run Stop Rate Run Plays Run Dft Run Yd/Play
94-D.Ware DAL 91% 35 11 1.9
55-T.Suggs BAL 85% 48 12 1.6
92-J.Harrison PIT 85% 59 13 2.0
55-L.Briggs CHI 85% 39 12 2.0
54-Geno.Hayes TB 82% 44 14 2.1
97-C.Pace NYJ 81% 36 8 2.1
95-S.Phillips SD 80% 35 9 2.7
52-C.Crowder MIA 80% 30 2 3.0
51-J.Farrior PIT 80% 64 7 2.1
92-W.Witherspoon TEN 79% 48 12 3.6
94-L.Timmons PIT 78% 82 14 2.5
53-K.Conner IND 77% 31 4 2.6
Worst Run Stop Rates for LB, 2010 (min. 30 Plays)
Player Team Run
Stop Rate Run
Plays Run
Dft Run
Yd/Play
50-A.Hawk GB 46% 67 5 4.6
54-Z.Diles HOU 48% 40 6 4.2
51-P.Posluszny BUF 50% 107 10 4.0
55-D.Bishop GB 50% 66 5 4.2
51-G.McRath TEN 50% 34 3 3.9
50-A.Ayodele BUF 51% 85 9 4.1
54-A.Davis BUF 52% 33 5 3.8
55-D.Williams DEN 52% 73 9 4.2
52-R.McIntosh WAS 53% 55 4 3.7
59-J.Belcher KC 53% 64 5 4.6
58-S.Shanle NO 55% 33 3 4.0
51-P.Angerer IND 55% 42 4 4.6
When you play close to the line of scrimmage like DeMarcus Ware and Terrell Suggs, it makes sense that most of your tackles stop runners before a good gain. But the list of the best Stop Rates for linebackers isn't all pass rushers; you've got 4-3 linebackers and 3-4 inside linebackers as well. In case you're wondering why Will Witherspoon's average yards per play is so much higher than the other players on this list, it's mostly the effect of two runs where he tracked down the runner after a long gain: a 37-yarder by Maurice Jones-Drew and a 16-yard scramble by Jason Campbell.
I've always been a little confused about what A.J. Hawk's strengths were supposed to be. When he first came out of college, he was advertised as a great all-around linebacker. Over time, it became clear he was a bit overdrafted, but still solid. The Packers took him out of the nickel package, suggesting that he was better against the run than against the pass. But this year, they actually put him back into the nickel package, suggesting that he was better against the pass than... well, at least better than Desmond Bishop was against the pass. As for the poor Run Stop Rate, I e-mailed Aaron Nagler from Cheesehead TV about it and his response was that Hawk "gets to the spot -- and then gets carried another three yards." That would seem to be a good explanation for a poor Run Stop Rate.
Best Run Stop Rates for DL, 2010 (min. 30 Plays)
Player Team Run
Stop Rate Run
Plays Run
Dft Run
Yd/Play
99-L.Houston OAK 91% 33 7 1.3
71-A.Garay SD 90% 41 7 1.7
78-A.Branch ARI 90% 30 8 1.7
92-S.Ellis NYJ 90% 30 6 2.1
79-J.Henderson OAK 90% 30 3 1.8
92-A.Franklin SF 89% 38 4 1.9
76-Ja.Williams DEN 89% 46 3 2.6
94-A.Smith HOU 87% 30 7 1.4
79-R.Pickett GB 87% 30 3 3.0
96-P.Soliai MIA 86% 36 8 1.1
92-H.Ngata BAL 86% 50 8 1.8
95-C.Johnson CAR 86% 42 8 1.9
Worst Run Stop Rates for DL, 2010 (min. 30 Plays)
Player Team Run
Stop Rate Run
Plays Run
Dft Run
Yd/Play
71-A.Rubin CLE 51% 75 5 4.1
90-D.Muir IND 54% 37 4 3.3
91-B.Schaefering CLE 57% 30 2 3.0
98-S.Ellis NO 64% 33 5 3.5
91-A.Okoye HOU 64% 39 10 3.1
98-D.Edwards BUF 65% 51 6 3.5
93-C.Redding BAL 65% 37 5 2.3
98-R.Mathis IND 66% 41 9 2.6
95-K.Balmer SEA 66% 41 6 2.6
93-K.Vanden Bosch DET 67% 33 8 2.8
97-J.Bannan DEN 67% 30 8 2.6
91-Sp.Johnson BUF 68% 53 7 2.8
A tackle that takes place after a long gain isn't always a poor play by the player in question; for example, it's hard to fault Amobi Okoye when Mike Thomas rips off a 17-yard end around, but when Okoye runs downfield and is the player who tracks Thomas down, that tackle shows up in his numbers as a non-stop. Okoye's place on this list is sort of interesting for other reasons. I know it surprised some people when he showed up last week on the list of players with the most Run Defeats. Okoye's high Defeats total combined with low Stop Rate shows his plays came all over the place, and he had a habit of getting credited for an assist on a lot of 5-8 yard runs.
The "best rates" list helps show why Oakland's run defense was a surprising 12th in DVOA and fourth in Adjusted Line Yards. The Raiders' defensive line stopped a lot of opposing runners right up front, without even letting them get to the linebackers and defensive backs. Both Richard Seymour and Matt Shaughnessy also made their average tackles within two yards of the line of scrmimage, although with lower Stop Rates.
Not only did Ahtyba Rubin have the worst Run Stop Rate for a starting defensive lineman, but he also had more Run Plays than any other defensive lineman. As with Okoye, this is another one of the places where trying to read the meaning of play-by-play stats is difficult. The conventional wisdom in Cleveland is that Rubin had a breakout season last year. In this article, Eric Mangini gave him credit for a lot of "hustle plays." When Rubin was making tackles of runners after five or six yards, was he getting pushed backwards by blockers or was he making hustle plays on runners after being initially blocked out of the play? The play-by-play doesn't tell you.
Clearly, somebody wasn't doing a good job against the run in Cleveland, and Adjusted Line Yards numbers suggest that the culprits are Rubin and the linemen, and maybe the linebackers -- but not the defensive backs. Cleveland ranked 31st in Adjusted Line Yards but fourth in Second-Level Yards and fourth in Open Field Yards. They gave up a ton of 5-8 yard runs but very few 10+-yard runs.
Best Run Stop Rates for DB, 2010 (min. 20 Plays)
Player Team Run
Stop Rate Run
Plays Run
Dft Run
Yd/Play
21-C.Woodson GB 70% 43 9 4.0
24-S.Brown CLE 64% 22 1 3.4
20-R.Barber TB 62% 42 9 4.7
26-A.Winfield MIN 62% 21 3 3.5
24-A.Wilson ARI 62% 52 10 4.2
22-B.Pool NYJ 60% 30 3 5.5
28-G.Toler ARI 59% 32 3 5.8
43-T.Polamalu PIT 58% 24 6 4.1
41-R.Harper NO 56% 57 8 4.4
28-S.Gregory SD 55% 20 4 5.1
27-Q.Mikell PHI 55% 51 9 5.4
43-G.Sensabaugh DAL 55% 31 2 5.9
Worst Run Stop Rates for DB, 2010 (min. 20 Plays)
Player Team Run
Stop Rate Run
Plays Run
Dft Run
Yd/Play
23-R.Hill DEN 24% 34 1 11.3
41-K.Moore WAS 24% 37 3 8.9
46-C.Harris CHI 25% 28 3 7.6
36-J.Sanders NE 25% 24 2 7.2
36-N.Collins GB 26% 31 3 8.6
25-K.Rhodes ARI 26% 50 3 11.0
20-R.Nelson CIN 26% 23 2 8.1
31-B.Meriweather NE 27% 26 0 9.0
28-T.DeCoud ATL 28% 40 3 10.2
26-L.Delmas DET 28% 43 4 6.3
30-C.Clemons MIA 28% 25 3 7.9
20-D.Whitner BUF 29% 94 6 8.3
As with Run Defeats, there's no surprise to seeing Charles Woodson and Ronde Barber on the top of this list. That's just how they roll, baby. Adrian Wilson had his customary strong year against the run as well, although he may not be the pass defender he was a couple years ago.
As you can see, the list of worst Run Stop Rates is basically all free safeties. The cornerbacks with the lowest Stop Rate (minimum 20 plays) were Brent Grimes and Stanford Routt at 30 percent. Also, if you're looking at that list, you may be surprised by just how many run tackles Donte Whitner made last year: 94. That's 25 more than any other defensive back in the league. The Buffalo front seven wasn't really doing the best job of stopping opposition runners. Whitner was fifth in the entire league in the number of Run Plays, behind only four inside linebackers (Jerod Mayo, Paul Posluszny, Stephen Tulloch, and London Fletcher). The next-highest defensive back was Antrel Rolle, who was tied for 29th.
With all the Buffalo players listed on the Worst Run Stop Rate lists above, you really see what a problem run defense was for the Bills and it just makes you appreciate Kyle Williams even more. Williams led the Bills in Run Defeats (11), Run Stop Rate (77 percent), and yards per play on runs (2.1). Fourteen different players had at least 20 run tackles for Buffalo and Marcus Stroud was the only other one with a Run Stop Rate above 70 percent (just barely, at 70.5 percent) while Spencer Johnson (2.8) was the only other one to make his average run tackle within three yards of the line of scrimmage.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2011/best-and-worst-run-stop-rates-2010
by Aaron Schatz
Time to continue our series presenting various 2010 stats from the multitude of Football Outsiders spreadsheets. Today, let's look at Stop Rate for running plays.
Stop Rate is defined as the percentage of a players Plays that were Stops. Plays are any time a player shows up in the play-by-play on defense: tackles, assists, forced fumbles, etc. Stops are plays that stop the offense short of what FO considers a successful play: 45 percent of yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third or fourth down.
Obviously, Stop Rate isn't a perfect stat. It measures the plays that a player makes, not the plays he misses or the plays he doesn't even get a chance to miss because he is being properly blocked away from the ballcarrier. Still, it gives you a good idea of where players were making their plays and thus why certain defenses were good or bad at certain parts of the game in 2010.
The tables below are limited solely to running plays, including scrambles. We give Run Stop Rate as well as number of Plays and number of Defeats, plus yards per play, which is the average length of a run past the line of scrimmage when this player had a tackle or assist.
(Note that the minimums I'm using here aren't necessarily the same minimums that we use when ranking players in this stat on the FO player pages, so the rank here may be different from the rank on a player's page. We keep those minimums very standard no matter the stat we're measuring in order to make it easier to put the player pages together.)
Best Run Stop Rates for LB, 2010 (min. 30 Plays)
Player Team Run Stop Rate Run Plays Run Dft Run Yd/Play
94-D.Ware DAL 91% 35 11 1.9
55-T.Suggs BAL 85% 48 12 1.6
92-J.Harrison PIT 85% 59 13 2.0
55-L.Briggs CHI 85% 39 12 2.0
54-Geno.Hayes TB 82% 44 14 2.1
97-C.Pace NYJ 81% 36 8 2.1
95-S.Phillips SD 80% 35 9 2.7
52-C.Crowder MIA 80% 30 2 3.0
51-J.Farrior PIT 80% 64 7 2.1
92-W.Witherspoon TEN 79% 48 12 3.6
94-L.Timmons PIT 78% 82 14 2.5
53-K.Conner IND 77% 31 4 2.6
Worst Run Stop Rates for LB, 2010 (min. 30 Plays)
Player Team Run
Stop Rate Run
Plays Run
Dft Run
Yd/Play
50-A.Hawk GB 46% 67 5 4.6
54-Z.Diles HOU 48% 40 6 4.2
51-P.Posluszny BUF 50% 107 10 4.0
55-D.Bishop GB 50% 66 5 4.2
51-G.McRath TEN 50% 34 3 3.9
50-A.Ayodele BUF 51% 85 9 4.1
54-A.Davis BUF 52% 33 5 3.8
55-D.Williams DEN 52% 73 9 4.2
52-R.McIntosh WAS 53% 55 4 3.7
59-J.Belcher KC 53% 64 5 4.6
58-S.Shanle NO 55% 33 3 4.0
51-P.Angerer IND 55% 42 4 4.6
When you play close to the line of scrimmage like DeMarcus Ware and Terrell Suggs, it makes sense that most of your tackles stop runners before a good gain. But the list of the best Stop Rates for linebackers isn't all pass rushers; you've got 4-3 linebackers and 3-4 inside linebackers as well. In case you're wondering why Will Witherspoon's average yards per play is so much higher than the other players on this list, it's mostly the effect of two runs where he tracked down the runner after a long gain: a 37-yarder by Maurice Jones-Drew and a 16-yard scramble by Jason Campbell.
I've always been a little confused about what A.J. Hawk's strengths were supposed to be. When he first came out of college, he was advertised as a great all-around linebacker. Over time, it became clear he was a bit overdrafted, but still solid. The Packers took him out of the nickel package, suggesting that he was better against the run than against the pass. But this year, they actually put him back into the nickel package, suggesting that he was better against the pass than... well, at least better than Desmond Bishop was against the pass. As for the poor Run Stop Rate, I e-mailed Aaron Nagler from Cheesehead TV about it and his response was that Hawk "gets to the spot -- and then gets carried another three yards." That would seem to be a good explanation for a poor Run Stop Rate.
Best Run Stop Rates for DL, 2010 (min. 30 Plays)
Player Team Run
Stop Rate Run
Plays Run
Dft Run
Yd/Play
99-L.Houston OAK 91% 33 7 1.3
71-A.Garay SD 90% 41 7 1.7
78-A.Branch ARI 90% 30 8 1.7
92-S.Ellis NYJ 90% 30 6 2.1
79-J.Henderson OAK 90% 30 3 1.8
92-A.Franklin SF 89% 38 4 1.9
76-Ja.Williams DEN 89% 46 3 2.6
94-A.Smith HOU 87% 30 7 1.4
79-R.Pickett GB 87% 30 3 3.0
96-P.Soliai MIA 86% 36 8 1.1
92-H.Ngata BAL 86% 50 8 1.8
95-C.Johnson CAR 86% 42 8 1.9
Worst Run Stop Rates for DL, 2010 (min. 30 Plays)
Player Team Run
Stop Rate Run
Plays Run
Dft Run
Yd/Play
71-A.Rubin CLE 51% 75 5 4.1
90-D.Muir IND 54% 37 4 3.3
91-B.Schaefering CLE 57% 30 2 3.0
98-S.Ellis NO 64% 33 5 3.5
91-A.Okoye HOU 64% 39 10 3.1
98-D.Edwards BUF 65% 51 6 3.5
93-C.Redding BAL 65% 37 5 2.3
98-R.Mathis IND 66% 41 9 2.6
95-K.Balmer SEA 66% 41 6 2.6
93-K.Vanden Bosch DET 67% 33 8 2.8
97-J.Bannan DEN 67% 30 8 2.6
91-Sp.Johnson BUF 68% 53 7 2.8
A tackle that takes place after a long gain isn't always a poor play by the player in question; for example, it's hard to fault Amobi Okoye when Mike Thomas rips off a 17-yard end around, but when Okoye runs downfield and is the player who tracks Thomas down, that tackle shows up in his numbers as a non-stop. Okoye's place on this list is sort of interesting for other reasons. I know it surprised some people when he showed up last week on the list of players with the most Run Defeats. Okoye's high Defeats total combined with low Stop Rate shows his plays came all over the place, and he had a habit of getting credited for an assist on a lot of 5-8 yard runs.
The "best rates" list helps show why Oakland's run defense was a surprising 12th in DVOA and fourth in Adjusted Line Yards. The Raiders' defensive line stopped a lot of opposing runners right up front, without even letting them get to the linebackers and defensive backs. Both Richard Seymour and Matt Shaughnessy also made their average tackles within two yards of the line of scrmimage, although with lower Stop Rates.
Not only did Ahtyba Rubin have the worst Run Stop Rate for a starting defensive lineman, but he also had more Run Plays than any other defensive lineman. As with Okoye, this is another one of the places where trying to read the meaning of play-by-play stats is difficult. The conventional wisdom in Cleveland is that Rubin had a breakout season last year. In this article, Eric Mangini gave him credit for a lot of "hustle plays." When Rubin was making tackles of runners after five or six yards, was he getting pushed backwards by blockers or was he making hustle plays on runners after being initially blocked out of the play? The play-by-play doesn't tell you.
Clearly, somebody wasn't doing a good job against the run in Cleveland, and Adjusted Line Yards numbers suggest that the culprits are Rubin and the linemen, and maybe the linebackers -- but not the defensive backs. Cleveland ranked 31st in Adjusted Line Yards but fourth in Second-Level Yards and fourth in Open Field Yards. They gave up a ton of 5-8 yard runs but very few 10+-yard runs.
Best Run Stop Rates for DB, 2010 (min. 20 Plays)
Player Team Run
Stop Rate Run
Plays Run
Dft Run
Yd/Play
21-C.Woodson GB 70% 43 9 4.0
24-S.Brown CLE 64% 22 1 3.4
20-R.Barber TB 62% 42 9 4.7
26-A.Winfield MIN 62% 21 3 3.5
24-A.Wilson ARI 62% 52 10 4.2
22-B.Pool NYJ 60% 30 3 5.5
28-G.Toler ARI 59% 32 3 5.8
43-T.Polamalu PIT 58% 24 6 4.1
41-R.Harper NO 56% 57 8 4.4
28-S.Gregory SD 55% 20 4 5.1
27-Q.Mikell PHI 55% 51 9 5.4
43-G.Sensabaugh DAL 55% 31 2 5.9
Worst Run Stop Rates for DB, 2010 (min. 20 Plays)
Player Team Run
Stop Rate Run
Plays Run
Dft Run
Yd/Play
23-R.Hill DEN 24% 34 1 11.3
41-K.Moore WAS 24% 37 3 8.9
46-C.Harris CHI 25% 28 3 7.6
36-J.Sanders NE 25% 24 2 7.2
36-N.Collins GB 26% 31 3 8.6
25-K.Rhodes ARI 26% 50 3 11.0
20-R.Nelson CIN 26% 23 2 8.1
31-B.Meriweather NE 27% 26 0 9.0
28-T.DeCoud ATL 28% 40 3 10.2
26-L.Delmas DET 28% 43 4 6.3
30-C.Clemons MIA 28% 25 3 7.9
20-D.Whitner BUF 29% 94 6 8.3
As with Run Defeats, there's no surprise to seeing Charles Woodson and Ronde Barber on the top of this list. That's just how they roll, baby. Adrian Wilson had his customary strong year against the run as well, although he may not be the pass defender he was a couple years ago.
As you can see, the list of worst Run Stop Rates is basically all free safeties. The cornerbacks with the lowest Stop Rate (minimum 20 plays) were Brent Grimes and Stanford Routt at 30 percent. Also, if you're looking at that list, you may be surprised by just how many run tackles Donte Whitner made last year: 94. That's 25 more than any other defensive back in the league. The Buffalo front seven wasn't really doing the best job of stopping opposition runners. Whitner was fifth in the entire league in the number of Run Plays, behind only four inside linebackers (Jerod Mayo, Paul Posluszny, Stephen Tulloch, and London Fletcher). The next-highest defensive back was Antrel Rolle, who was tied for 29th.
With all the Buffalo players listed on the Worst Run Stop Rate lists above, you really see what a problem run defense was for the Bills and it just makes you appreciate Kyle Williams even more. Williams led the Bills in Run Defeats (11), Run Stop Rate (77 percent), and yards per play on runs (2.1). Fourteen different players had at least 20 run tackles for Buffalo and Marcus Stroud was the only other one with a Run Stop Rate above 70 percent (just barely, at 70.5 percent) while Spencer Johnson (2.8) was the only other one to make his average run tackle within three yards of the line of scrimmage.