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Behold the New Fantastic Four
Posted by Rafael at Sunday, June 26, 2011
Long-time readers are familiar with the Fantastic Four concept. I've long slammed preseason annuals because they usually take last year's standings, shuffle the playoff teams just a little, and add a ''surprise team'' to the predictions.
The NFL standings churn ferociously in the cap era. On average, half the playoff teams in a given year don't repeat the following season. What's more, there are multiple ''surprise'' teams. From '00 through '08 an average of four teams per season made the playoffs after having a losing record the following year.
Last year, that number was two. The Chiefs jumped from 4-12 to win the AFC West. The Bears leaped from 7-9 to 11-5. The Bucs just missed being a third; they improved from 3-13 to 10-6 but lost to Green Bay on tie-breakers. The Rams made a major jump from 1-15 to 7-9, but they also lost to Seattle on tie-breakers in the weak NFC West.
That makes them one of my favorites for this year's version of the Fantastic Four. Look at the list of the sixteen teams that finished 7-9 or lower in 2010. A handful of them will likely make the playoffs this year. Here's my list:
1. St. Louis -- they slowly keep improving. Steve Spagnuolo knows defense and his unit keeps rolling up the league's performance charts. He added Robert Quinn in the draft. Year two of the Sam Bradford era sees the Rams top .500 and claim the West.
2. Detroit -- Another team that is slowly but surely building its talent base. When Jim Schwartz took over the 0-16 Lions, he had nothing on his roster. He put two very good drafts together and still only improved to 6-10. It looks like the Lions had another solid draft, adding Nick Fairley to a line that already features Ndamukong Suh and Cliff Avril. They acquired RB Mikel Leshoure to team with Jahvid Best. Calvin Johnson is Calvin Johnson. Their offensive line still needs work, but the Lions could be ready for the postseason.
3. Dallas -- Jason Garrett had his offense scoring at at top 5 pace as head coach, though he lost Tony Romo, had a porous right side of his offensive line, and no training camp or bye. He'll have the camp (we hope) and will get to mold the team to his vision this year. New DC Rob Ryan will need to revive a defense that dropped from 2nd in scoring to 31st in '10. LB coach Matt Eberflus will be key. He got the most out of a motley bunch in Cleveland. He's well regarded and will need to get Anthony Spencer and kid ILBs Sean Lee and Bruce Carter to buy into his program.
4. Houston -- Wade Phillips walked away from one smoldering defense and tries to revive a second. The Texans were almost as bad as Dallas in 2010, finishing 29th in scoring. Phillips may have the nous for the job. In 2004, he took over a Chargers defense that had ranked 31st in scoring the year before. He raised them to 11th that year, helping the Chargers jump from 4-12 to 12-4. Marty Schottenheimer won coaching awards, but was quick to divert the credit to Phillips. Gary Kubiak is counting on another quick overhaul by Wade. Both of their jobs likely depend on it.
Posted by Rafael at Sunday, June 26, 2011
Long-time readers are familiar with the Fantastic Four concept. I've long slammed preseason annuals because they usually take last year's standings, shuffle the playoff teams just a little, and add a ''surprise team'' to the predictions.
The NFL standings churn ferociously in the cap era. On average, half the playoff teams in a given year don't repeat the following season. What's more, there are multiple ''surprise'' teams. From '00 through '08 an average of four teams per season made the playoffs after having a losing record the following year.
Last year, that number was two. The Chiefs jumped from 4-12 to win the AFC West. The Bears leaped from 7-9 to 11-5. The Bucs just missed being a third; they improved from 3-13 to 10-6 but lost to Green Bay on tie-breakers. The Rams made a major jump from 1-15 to 7-9, but they also lost to Seattle on tie-breakers in the weak NFC West.
That makes them one of my favorites for this year's version of the Fantastic Four. Look at the list of the sixteen teams that finished 7-9 or lower in 2010. A handful of them will likely make the playoffs this year. Here's my list:
1. St. Louis -- they slowly keep improving. Steve Spagnuolo knows defense and his unit keeps rolling up the league's performance charts. He added Robert Quinn in the draft. Year two of the Sam Bradford era sees the Rams top .500 and claim the West.
2. Detroit -- Another team that is slowly but surely building its talent base. When Jim Schwartz took over the 0-16 Lions, he had nothing on his roster. He put two very good drafts together and still only improved to 6-10. It looks like the Lions had another solid draft, adding Nick Fairley to a line that already features Ndamukong Suh and Cliff Avril. They acquired RB Mikel Leshoure to team with Jahvid Best. Calvin Johnson is Calvin Johnson. Their offensive line still needs work, but the Lions could be ready for the postseason.
3. Dallas -- Jason Garrett had his offense scoring at at top 5 pace as head coach, though he lost Tony Romo, had a porous right side of his offensive line, and no training camp or bye. He'll have the camp (we hope) and will get to mold the team to his vision this year. New DC Rob Ryan will need to revive a defense that dropped from 2nd in scoring to 31st in '10. LB coach Matt Eberflus will be key. He got the most out of a motley bunch in Cleveland. He's well regarded and will need to get Anthony Spencer and kid ILBs Sean Lee and Bruce Carter to buy into his program.
4. Houston -- Wade Phillips walked away from one smoldering defense and tries to revive a second. The Texans were almost as bad as Dallas in 2010, finishing 29th in scoring. Phillips may have the nous for the job. In 2004, he took over a Chargers defense that had ranked 31st in scoring the year before. He raised them to 11th that year, helping the Chargers jump from 4-12 to 12-4. Marty Schottenheimer won coaching awards, but was quick to divert the credit to Phillips. Gary Kubiak is counting on another quick overhaul by Wade. Both of their jobs likely depend on it.
