Pretty much done here, we dont agreee
Basically you think Spencer sux. I dont think he's elite or even top shelf, but I do think he's better than taking a gamble on some other unknown guy, or hoping that they hit on someone in the draft after they've let him walk.
OLB is a very key part of a 3-4 defense. He isnt great, but he isnt anywhere near the scrub you make him out to me. You just dont like the guy and thats fine, but its clearly clouding your judgement on this topic. letting him walk when they have no obvious Plan B is stupid, especially when there are other areas of the team they can address.
No, I don't think he's a scrub which is why I'm in favor of a longer deal that spreads the cap hit out across multiple years so they can cut him in 3-4 years and not be hamstrung by his cap number now or later.
I just don't think he provides so much that he can't be replaced and is a do-or-die signing or tagging. He is good against the run. But his coverage skills are not good and he is average against in rushing the passer.
The only part where we disagree is in coverage and provided some numbers to back it up.
You keep crying about the amount dedicated to the franchise tag, when you have no freaking clue if it would have any impact whatsoever on our ability to sign other players (which is what you keep saying). The fact is we'll have plenty of cap space and they can easily create more if necessary by restructuring some deals.
More cap space = more ability to sign players.
It's as simple as that.
And yes, they can restructure deals. But you know what that does, pushes cap hits down the road. Guaranteeing the base salary this year and spreading it across the rest of the contract increases a players cap hit for the remaining years he's on board.
I hope you realize how foolish that is.
You're essentially overcommitting cap space to Spencer this year and in the following years because you have to push the cap hits of other players down the road as a result of having 9M less to work with now. I don't know how much the team can free up, I really don't care because it's not smart to push the cap burden down the road to tag a guy who isn't in the long term plans.
And really, as far as the cap is concerned it's almost no different than just signing Spencer to a long term deal. The only real difference is, instead of having cap space dedicated to Spencer down the road, that would-be cap space is dedicated to 3 or 4 other players. On second thought, it is different. It's worse.
It's basically a double-whammy. You pay 9M in space now and then you pay 9M (or however much you freed up) in space over the course of a few futures years. By the time it's all said and done, you've essentially committed a total of 18M in cap space (over multiple years of course and through guarantees to other players) to ensure that you have Spencer for only the 2012 season.
Now, consider you sign him to Brooks' contract. And I'll preface this by saying I have a limited understanding of the cap so it may not be totally correct, I don't expect it to be but just going off how some contracts are set up. I'm not sure about the different rules or such regarding base salary increases the numbers could be completely wrong. But, if you look at Jahri Evans contract it's set up in a manner that allows him to be cut at almost any time, including now and the Saints face little consequence because they set it up with little signing bonus but guaranteed base salary, sort of how I did option #2.
I have 2 scenarios.
Scenario 1: 17.5 All Signing Bonus. I posted it earlier.
2012: 2.9M + 1.5M Base = 4.4 Cap Hit
2013: 2.9M + 2.5M Base = 5.4 Cap Hit
2014: 2.9M + 3.5M Base = 6.4 Cap Hit
2015: 2.9M + 4.5M Base = 7.4 Cap Hit
2016: 2.9M + 6.5M Base = 9.4 Cap Hit
2017: 2.9M + 8.5M Base = 11.4 Cap Hit
You cut him after 2015 if he's not playing well and your salary cap investment for those 4 years equals 23.6M dollars. You accelerate the last two years onto the 2016 Cap, eating up 5.8M (Or saving 4.4M over keeping him).
Total cap consequence of the contract: 29.4M for 4 years of play from Spencer at OLB.
Scenario 2: 10.5M Signing Bonus + 7M Base Salary in 2012 Guaranteed.
2012: 1.75M + 7M Base = 8.75M Cap Hit
2013: 1.75M + 2.5M Base = 4.25M Cap Hit
2014: 1.75M + 3.5M Base = 5.25M Cap Hit
2015: 1.75M + 4M Base = 5.75M Cap Hit
2016: 1.75M + 8M Base = 9.75 Cap Hit
2017: 1.75M + 9M Base = 10.75 Cap Hit
You cut him after 2015 if he's not playing well and your salary cap investment for those 4 years equals 24M dollars. You accelerate the last two years onto the 2016 Cap, eating up 3.5M (Or saving 6.25M over keeping him).
Total cap consequence of the contract: 27.5M for 4 years of play from Spencer at OLB.
Give me either of those options over the Franchise Tag.
The cap is all that matters when it comes to pay.
Freeing up 9M now and restructuring 3 players' deals, only to guarantee that money down the road and have it tack on to the cap is probably the worst possible scenario, IMO.
You have cap consequences now and down the road for 1 year of play. Lets say they free up 3M per player and restructure 3 players, all who have contracts that expire after 2015. Doubtful that scenario would work out like that because the restructured contracts would probably span across multiple years, some ending sooner and some later. But for illustration purposes.
2013: +3M Cap Hit
Player 1: +1M Cap Hit
Player 2: +1M Cap Hit
Player 3: +1M Cap Hit
2014: +3M Cap Hit
2015: +3M Cap Hit
Now, take the difference from Spencers estimated cap hit from those seasons in scenario #2 and the restructured consequences from the above 3 players.
2013: Spencer 4.25M Cap Hit - 3M Restructured = 1.25M
2014: Spencer 5.25M Cap Hit - 3M Restructured = 2.25M
2015: Spencer 5.75M Cap Hit - 3M Restructured = 2.75M
2016: Accelerated Spencer Bonus: 3.5M
In both scenario #2 and the Franchise Tag scenario Spencer accounts for 8.75M (or about) this year.
So the real question is, going forward is Spencer worth an additional total cap hit of 9.75M over 3 more seasons?
This is just bare bones because if Spencer accounts for 8.75M in his first season of a new contract, it's likely they would make more space anyway. That 9.75 is based on them not restructure and having about 10M in cap space to work with. Would they make the full 9M, who knows. I would guess at least 4 of it so they could still have about 14M for free agency.
If they make 3M, the real question moves up to 12.75M over 3 more seasons.
If they make 6M, up to 15.75M
If they make 9M, 18.75
But like I said, I'm no cap expert and I'm not sure that such a structured contract would be possible.
What I do know, franchising him is much worse on a number of levels. Disregarding my scenarios, committing 9M now and restructuring others for later cap hits is not the way to go. The problem magnifies if you end up giving him a long term deal after this season.
If he's worth franchising, he should be worth keeping. I don't see how someone can be on board with a significant cap hit now with total uncertainty for next offseason. Either save the money and draft a player and use the saved money to sign FAs. Or sign him to a contract that has a higher cap hit but spreads it out over 4 seasons so you can still sign players.
He's not the weakest link on defense and won't be no matter how good of an offseason Dallas has. There are just too many holes to possibly fill in one offseason. He probably wouldn't be the weak link after 2 great offseasons.
This team needs to handle their business with him as though he isn't some grand piece of a puzzle because he isn't. He's a solid contributor that leaves more to be desired but that would be fine at a decent price and upgraded players behind him and in front of him. 9M is not a decent price.
